RADIO
Here at RotoBaller, our dynasty crew will be reviewing all 32 teams in our offseason Dynasty Team outlook series. Leading up to the draft, we will break down every franchise as they currently stand and will review them again after the conclusion of free agency and the NFL Draft.
Which players should you buy and which players should you sell? Who will be sleepers this season and who will be busts? We will cover all the positions and all the angles for you.
The Jacksonville Jaguars were the surprise team in the league last season, using their dominant defense to win the AFC South and make it all the way to the AFC Championship Game, where they came up just a little short of beating the New England Patriots and making it to the Super Bowl. What will the 2018 season bring?
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Jacksonville Jaguars Dynasty Outlook
Team Record: 10-6 (1st, AFC South)
Fantasy Leaders (taken from FantasyData.com)
QB: Blake Bortles - 249.68 (QB13)
RB: Leonard Fournette - 194.2 (RB8)
WR: Marqise Lee - 91.9 (WR42)
TE: Marcedes Lewis - 63.8 (TE20)
IDP: Calais Campbell - 152.5 (DL1)
Quarterback
Well, it's Blake Bortles again, an option that real life fans of the Jaguars should feel uneasy about and fantasy owners should feel...okay about?
Let's start with an anecdote: In the staff dynasty league, my QBs coming into this offseason were Kirk Cousins, Tyrod Taylor, Nick Foles, and Blaine Gabbert. This was before the Browns dealt for Taylor, so I was going in with the assumption that my only guaranteed starter (in a superflex league!) was Cousins. In desperation mode, I traded one of my two second round rookie picks for Bortles, because he's a solid option who can get you through the trying times until you can hit on a rookie. Did I overpay some? Probably. But as the defending champion, I felt like I needed to make a move to keep me in win-now mode. Bortles was the best I could do.
Now, notice how many qualifiers I used in that last paragraph. I really don't love that I made a move for Bortles, but Jacksonville invested in him this offseason, so it looks like he's got a year or two still as a starter before we have to reexamine his role again.
Bortles finished as the QB13 last season, which was his worst finish since his rookie season. He's unlikely to finish in the top-five again (QB4 in 2015!) because his team has a run game and a strong defense now, which keeps us from seeing Garbage Time Blake. But the Blake Bortles of 2017 put up career bests in completion percentage and interception percentage. Even as his total yards decreased, he became a more efficient passer. Maybe his ceiling with Jacksonville's current make up is something like QB10, but that's still pretty good, especially in a superflex league!
And there's also this: trading for Bortles might be easier than trading for any quarterback ranked above or around him. Our dynasty rankers, for instance, have Bortles way down at QB23. But if you're in win now mode, Bortles can be a productive piece. If he continues to show improvement this season, Jacksonville can commit to him long term. I understand the risk, but he's still a top 15 fantasy quarterback heading into the 2018 season. He's not really got a place on a rebuilding dynasty team, but he does on teams looking to win soon.
By the way, the Jaguars recently traded for Cody Kessler to be their backup quarterback. I like Kessler -- I've felt that he was the best quarterback Cleveland has had over the last two years -- but I don't really see Kessler ending up as Jacksonville's starter. He's not worth a roster spot in your leagues.
Running Back
Leonard Fournette finished as the RB8 last year despite missing three games. He's seventh in the RotoBaller dynasty running back rankings. There's a lot to like about Fournette, especially when it comes to his touchdown potential. He scored seven touchdowns on his 16 carried from inside the 10 yard line during his rookie season and should continue to be a red zone threat. He was eighth among running backs in goal line carries. According to PlayerProfiler, Fournette ran against a stacked front on 16.8 percent of his carries, the third-highest percentage of any running back. He ran against a light front on 19 percent of his carries, which puts him 60th in that stat. Here's where an interesting trend emerges: Fournette averaged more yards per carry (3.6) against stacked fronts than against light fronts (3.3). To me, this suggests that Fournette can be a force in the league because he's able to produce even when the defense is geared towards stopping him.
If there's a thing Fournette doesn't do as well, it's his involvement in the passing game. Fournette was tied for 20th in targets among running backs last season with Kenyan Drake and Wayne Gallman. He can be a factor in that part of the game -- of running backs with at least 40 targets, Fournette ranked 11th out of 33 players in yards per catch -- but it's unclear if Blake Bortles will look his way more this season or not. He won't see Le'Veon Bell or Todd Gurley levels of targets, which limits some of his upside in PPR leagues.
Behind Fournette is T.J. Yeldon, who has talent and can be effective if anything happens to Fournette, but who doesn't have much stand alone value. The same can be said about Corey Grant.
Wide Receiver
Gone are Allen Robinson (who missed most of last season and is now a Bear) and Allen Hurns (who is now a Cowboy). That leaves Jacksonville with the following players at the position with their rank in the most recent RotoBaller dynasty wide receiver rankings listed: Dede Westbrook (#48), Marqise Lee (#51), Donte Moncrief (#61), and Keelan Cole (#64). It's clear that none of these guys are setting the dynasty world on fire, but could any of them be worth buying before this season?
Let's start with Dede Westbrook. He played in seven games as a rookie and caught 27 passes for 339 yards and a touchdown. His playing time was trending in the right direction as he went from playing 43.6 percent of snaps in his debut against Cleveland to 96.7 percent of snaps in Jacksonville's season finale. His lack of usage in the playoffs (just 14 targets across three playoff games) is disconcerting, but Westbrook has a better chance than anyone else on the Jaguars roster of opening the year as the number one receiver. His regular season target share (21.9 percent) was 24th among wide receivers. I love Westbrook's upside and I think that ranking as the WR48 in dynasty is a great value for a player who should continue to get better.
The Jaguars also brought in Donte Moncrief, who was expected to be a good sleeper in 2017 until Andrew Luck never returned to the field. Instead, he languished in Indianapolis, catching 26 balls (four fewer than in 2016) for 391 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He finished as the WR80. There are things to like about Moncrief -- he was targeted seven times in the red zone in 2017 and 10 times in 2016, he was in the top 30 in fantasy points per target in 2016. There's a scenario where Moncrief becomes a major red zone target for Blake Bortles, but I'm not sure it's a scenario that I'm ready to bet on. We saw in 2017 what Moncrief looked like without an elite quarterback and it wasn't pretty.
Entering his fifth NFL season, it's probably time that we admit that Marqise Lee is who he is. After struggling through the first two years of his career, he's put up back-to-back seasons with at least 700 yards and three touchdowns. He finished 2016 and 2017 just outside the top 40 at his position. With Westbrook expected to play a larger role this season and the Moncrief acquisition, I don't see Lee finishing inside the top 40. He's got value, but with a fresh group of rookies coming in and some second year players improving across the league, I think our staff ranking of Lee outside the top 50 is right.
Keelan Cole might be the most interesting piece in Jacksonville. Cole should start 2018 as Jacksonville's slot receiver. He caught 42 passes last season for 748 yards and three touchdowns. He struggled in the playoffs though, catching just three passes. Cole was top 30 in yards after the catch and top 20 in yards per target. He finished as WR45. Good signs! So why is he lower than the other three in the rankings? For one, his catch rate this season ranked 90th among wide receivers, which is.,,pretty bad. He also relied on big plays at a level that may not be sustainable -- he was 16th in yards per target last season. He was outside the top 85 at his position in red zone target share. I think Cole could show improvement this year and finish in the top 40 at wide receiver and I'd take him earlier in a start up draft than WR64, but the Jaguars have a crowded receiving core and Cole's 2018 showings could be a bit of a mirage.
Tight End
It's sad that the Marcedes Lewis era has ended in Jacksonville. Lewis was drafted in 2006. How long ago was that? Let's name some guys who were also drafted in 2006! Jay Cutler. Reggie Bush. Vince Young. Joseph Addai. Antonio Cromartie. Devin Hester. Maurice Jones-Drew. Brandon Marshall. I'll miss Lewis.
The Jaguars brought in the ultimate he has potential guy, Austin Seferian-Jenkins. Look: Seferian-Jenkins does have a ton of potential. I won't shade you any if you fall into the trap and draft him this year. Tight end is a shallow position, especially from a dynasty point of view. He's RotoBaller's TE22 in the dynasty rankings. If you have a solid starter AND a reliable backup, he's someone who you can buy into as a "just in case" guy.
Is it worth mentioning what Jacksonville has behind Seferian-Jenkins? Niles Paul and Ben Koyack and James O'Shaughnessy are good for a surprise touchdown each over the course of the year, but not much else.
IDP
The Jaguars had the league's best defense last year and their ADP is going to be through the roof in 2018. If I'm playing in a league that doesn't go IDP, I'm avoiding Jacksonville at their current price.
But in IDP? There's some enticing options. Let's start on the defensive line:
Calais Campbell was the top DL in fantasy last year. 15 sacks, two forced fumbles, one touchdown -- Campbell was a big part of the Jacksonville defense. He's also going to be 32 this season. Of the 18 players who recorded double-digit sacks last season, just three -- Julius Peppers, Terrell Suggs, and Cameron Wake -- were older than Campbell. This was also Campbell's first season with double-digit sacks. In dynasty start-up drafts, Campbell might be worth avoiding due to these concerns.
If you're looking for another reason to avoid Campbell, it's last year's DL6, Yannick Ngakoue, who is just 23-years-old. He had 12 sacks last season and his age makes him a much better candidate to repeat that performance.
Jacksonville had two top 40 linebackers: Telvin Smith and Myles Jack. Smith is in his prime, had three interceptions last year, and found the end zone twice. Jack, in my opinion, has more upside. He had 65 tackles and a pair of sacks. It was a huge improvement over his rookie year and I like Jack to break out in 2018.
Barry Church is a good defensive backs, but I'm not sure I love him from a fantasy perspective. Church is going to be 30 and has been declining in every category except for interceptions over the past few years. And then we have A.J. Bouye and Jalen Ramsey, a pair of cornerbacks who are both good enough that teams can't purposefully take one out of the game by targeting the other. Bouye had the league's best coverage rating last year per PlayerProfiler. Quarterbacks had a rating of just 37.5 when targeting him. Ramsey, meanwhile, is younger and was maaaaybe a little worse than Bouye last year, as he had the league's 10th-best coverage rating and allowed a quarterback rating of 55.5. Still, both are elite options whose presence on the same team means both should be targeted around 100 times over the course of the year, giving both an opportunity for interceptions and tackles.
