RADIO
Welcome back RotoBallers! You can really feel golf season picking up after the Farmers Insurance Open and Tiger Woods completing a full four rounds of golf. It is absurd that the tournament had to be finished on Monday. Just ridiculous. Thank you J.B. Holmes for playing at an agonizing slow pace. If you read my article last week, you not only got the winner, but the runner-up!
In this article, I will be providing you with my Waste Management Phoenix Open PGA DFS lineup picks for DraftKings. My goal as always is to help put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups. If anyone has lineup questions before the start of the tournament Thursday morning, feel free to contact me via Twitter @Seth_Fink.
Editor's Note: Our friends at Fantasy National have built some incredible DFS Golf lineup tools including a Lineup Optimizer, Stat Engine, Ownership Projections and Course Breakdowns. They are by far the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry. Seriously. You can read all about them here and see screenshots.
Waste Management Phoenix Open
The PGA Tour heads further south to the desert. TPC Scottsdale is par-71 measuring between 7,200 to 7,400 yards in length. It features four Par-3's, 11 Par-4's, and three Par-5's. All the par-4's are at least 400 yards.
This is one of my favorite tournaments. I've written the same thing the past two years, and will do it again because it still holds true. "Golf is a gentleman's game. Fans applaud and are mostly very polite and respectful. The Waste Management Phoenix Open is the complete opposite. It is the rowdiest golf tournament. Most of the fans are very drunk. They dress up in all different costumes, and shout at the players. It's made for TV."
That's the 16th hole, one of the most popular on tour. This Par 3 can decide the tournament on Sunday.
The course can yield relatively low scores. It's a driver-heavy course. Bombers have had a great history of playing here and usually find themselves as the winner. Hideki Matusyama won this the past two years, and Brooks Koepka won three years ago. Rickie Fowler has had back-to-back top-five finishes. Those guys can all crush the ball. It's also easier to hit the ball further in the dry air of Arizona.
The greens are Bermuda grass and firm. An odd thing to note is the greens are overseeded, which means bad putters putt well here. And yes, I did find a stat of best players on overseeded greens. The top-5 are Ryan Moore, Patrick Reed, Ryan Palmer, Kevin Na, and Webb Simpson.
While researching I discovered some interesting factoids; players hit 60% of fairways and reach the green in-regulation 67% which are both higher than tour average. Players hit the ball an average of 13 yards further here than the tour average, but have also drove it less accurately. If you miss the fairway, not to worry because the rough length is average.
My custom stat model will be focusing on SG:Tot (30%), Par 4: 400-450 (25%), greens-in-regulation gained (25%), and driving distance (20%). Over the past five years, the top-10 finishers in strokes-gained total have finished in the top-10 100% of the time. Driving distance is also important because bombers perform well here. These stats account for the last 24 rounds at TPC Scottsdale and all courses. I will reference both ranking below. With the results, I keyed on the following players.
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
High-Priced Players
There are four players this week priced above $10,000; Hideki Matsuyama ($11,500), Jordan Spieth ($11,400), Jon Rahm ($11,000), Rickie Fowler ($10,400), and Justin Thomas ($10,300).
I'm not sure how Fowler hasn't won this event yet. He lost in a playoff two years ago, which he should've won had. I wrote back then, "He was up by two strokes heading into the 17th hole, where he drove the ball over the green and into the water, resulting in a bogey." Last year he finished fourth. He has not played since the first week of January at the Tournament of Champions where he finished fourth.
How can you not pick Hideki Matsuyama? He's had four consecutive top-5's and is the back-t0-back defending champion. He has the highest SG:Total at this event the past five years.
For the sake of playing one lineup, I'd go with Fowler because he's $1,100 cheaper than Matsuyama, but if you're playing multiple lineups, play those two and Spieth. He finished 7th in 2015, and 9th last year. Dating back to last season, he has not finished outside the top-25 the past seven tournaments. He's also the No. 1 ranked player in my all courses.
Thomas has missed the past the cut the past two years here and something doesn't feel right with Rahm after a third-round 75 and final-round 77.
Middle-Priced Players
Tony Finau ($9,100) - He is fifth in my all courses rankings, but 42nd in my TPC Scottsdale rankings. After finishing 22nd her win 2015, he's missed back-to-back cuts. He played really well last week at the Farmers finishing T-6, but his third and fourth-round 73 set him back.
Webb Simpson ($8,900) - He took last week off, but finished 36th two weeks ago at the Career Builder. He's had a great history at TPC Scottsdale; 8th in 2012, 10th in 2014, 14th in 2016, and runner-up last year.
Gary Woodland ($8,600) - An under-ther-radar type player here, who's been playing very good golf of late with a T-7 at the Sony and T-12 at the Farmers. In the past six years here, his highest finish has been 16th and has missed two cuts.
Austin Cook ($8,300) - This will be the 26-year-old's first time competing at this event. He comes in hot after back-to-back top-20 finishes at the Sony and Career Builder.
Ryan Moore ($8,200) - This will be his first tournament since November of 2017. He's made the cut here in the last six Phoenix Open's including two top-10's and and 11th.
Harris English ($8,100) - After missing five straight cuts to end 2017, English has turned it around with a 64th at the Sony, 11th at the Career Builder, and a T-8 finish last week at the Farmers.
Shane Lowry ($7,900) - His price is down $900 after missing the cut last week. However, he's excelled here finishing 6th two years ago and 16th last year.
Brendan Steele ($7,800) - He's competed in the past two tournaments finishing T-20 and T-29. From 2012-14, he finished in the top-10, and in the past three years had a 26th, 17th, and 16th.
Patton Kizzire ($7,700) - My stats love this guy. He won the Sony Open several weeks ago and finished T-42 at the Career Builder. He played in this tournament the past two years finishing 60th and 57th.
Bubba Watson ($7,500) - One of the most undervalued players in this field. What happened to Watson? He won two Masters and then fell off the face of the Earth. He's been awful of late, but for some reason plays really well here. He was runner-up in 2014 and 2015, was 14th in 2016, and missed the cut last year.
J.J. Spaun ($7,500) - He finished T-23 last week and was 4th last year at the Phoenix Open.
Charley Hoffman ($7,500) - This pick comes from CBS Sports, the same model that predicted Alex Noren last week.
Keegan Bradley ($7,400) - This pick comes from the ShackHouse podcast, a must-listen for golf fans. In the past six years, he's had four top-25's, and missed the cut in 2014 and last year.
Lucas Glover ($7,400) - He had an iffy performance last week finishing T-67. However, he's 3-4 in cuts made here and provides nice salary cap flexibility with a high-chance of making the cut.
Xander Schauffele ($7,400) - The native Southern Californian really disappointed last week, but I'm going back with him. This will be his first Phoenix Open, but as long as he can handle the rowdy crowd, he'll be fine.
Low-Priced Players
Emilliano Grillo ($7,200) - He had a very nice outing in La Jolla last week finishing T-12. He's 2-2 in cuts made here, both the past two years.
Robert Garrigus ($7,000) - This is another play form the ShackHouse podcast. He's 3-5 in cuts made here and is off a T-8 last week.
Chesson Hadley ($6,900) - Both he and Streelman are top-10 in my overall course rankings. He was T-23 last week, and is 1-2 in cuts made.
Kevin Streelman ($6,800) - He's off back-to-back T-29 at the Career Builder and Farmers and is 3-6 in cuts made the past six years here.
Best of luck RotoBallers!
Custom Stat Model - DFS Golf Advanced Tools
Here are the players I wrote about and their correlating stats with my custom stat model:
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