RADIO
I want to tell you everything I am thinking right now. I want to lay it all on the line and be an open book. It has been eating at me. When the time is right, I’ll tell you everything, but I just can’t yet. Yes, it’s a metaphor, but it’s also a common place most people find themselves at some point in their lives.
In real life, sometimes you just need to say what’s on your mind. In fantasy football though, keep it to yourself. Unless you are in my position, where it is my job to share secrets and inside information, you don’t want to give away anything that could be an advantage. Maybe a guy was signed off the practice squad or you see that breakout performance coming. Those secrets are fine to keep and the only people they will hurt are your opponents, when you play them. When the time is right, you will tell everyone you’ve been keeping your eye on that player and you knew they would be special all along. The time isn’t right until after that breakout performance though.
For this article of #TrendingNow, I am going to give you the inside scoop to some players a little early. Two guys I am dying to let you know about and instead of keeping it to myself, I’m going to spill the beans now in hopes that you can get to them early. Just make sure you keep this to yourself.
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#TrendingUp
Mack Hollins (WR, PHI)
When you look at the Eagles receiving depth, you see Alshon Jeffery, Torrey Smith, Nelson Agholor and Zach Ertz before you even get to Mack Hollins. To say this is a deep stash would be an understatement, but he is a guy you should be looking to add in deep dynasty leagues right now. He hasn’t made much of an impact, but he has put together a five catch, 132-yard performance the last three weeks with a touchdown to add. To put that in some perspective, TY Hilton only has five catches for 61 yards and no touchdowns during the same stretch. I’m not saying Hollins is the next Hilton, but just trying to add some more information for anyone who may be questioning why Hollins is included in this section of the article.
This is a dynasty article and I’m focused on offering up players who could help beyond 2017, and Hollins has that capability. Smith has not worked out in Philadelphia so far and could be out the door at the end of the season. Jeffrey is also on a one-year deal and if he decides to test free agency again, more money could be there with more years from someone else. Hollins would be the next man up if either of those scenarios played out during the offseason.
It’s not just about the receiver situation though, but just as much about the evolution of Carson Wentz into a top tier QB. You could make the case right now that Wentz is the NFL MVP. He has the ability to make his receivers good players and help them play above their skill set, like Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady. Yes, I compared Wentz to those QBs, but that’s not the focus of this section. Hollins, a fourth round pick out of North Carolina this year, won’t offer much value to start with. You will need to be patient and wait for his time. But as I eluded to at the beginning of this article, you will want to keep this information to yourself till the time is right.
DeDe Westbrook (WR, JAX)
For those dynasty owners who do a good job scouting the draft, DeDe Westbrook is not a new name. As of right now though, he could be a forgotten name. Westbrook led the NFL with 288 receiving yards this preseason and looked to be transitioning to a great WR2 behind Allen Robinson for the Jaguars. Before Week 1 though, Westbrook went down with a core injury and hasn’t seen the field since. After Robinson went down, the Jaguars have had to rely on Allen Hurns and Marqise Lee as their top receivers.
That alone is enough to make me buy into Westbrook for the rest of 2017 and beyond. The Jaguars have moved to a ground and pound game, taking the burden of trying to win a game from Blake Bortles and giving it to the defense and the running game. So far so good as the Jaguars are 4-3 and second in the AFC South. As nice as that is, this offense needs to be a little more dynamic to keep defenses out of the box. The Jaguars currently rank 28th in receiving yards at 192.6 yards per game.
They need some help in that area and Westbrook is just the guy to assist. Beyond 2017 though, you have to look at Allen Robinson's expiring contract. If he decides to test free agency and leaves Jacksonville, then Westbrook has the potential to be the WR1 on a team that is getting better and better. If it’s not too late, try and buy some Westbrook shares. You still have a couple of weeks before he returns, but you’ll need him on your team before then if you want a shot at keeping him.
#TrendingDown
Matt Forte (RB, NYJ)
It has been a great career, but it’s coming to a close. The 31-year-old former all pro is on the last leg of a career that saw him as one of the best fantasy assets for years while in a Bears uniform. As it stands now though, he’s barely cracking flex play levels unless you have several players on a bye or have been dealing with injuries. The biggest issue with Forte’s use in New York is that he has a running back that fits a similar style also on his team. Bilal Powell finished his 2016 campaign strong and was in line to be the lead back for the Jets this season, but like Forte, he has been mostly ineffective. When both have been healthy and playing on the same day, Forte is averaging 28.4 snaps per game while Powell is averaging 25.2 snaps per game.
So why is Forte #TrendingDown if he is averaging more snaps per game then Powell? Well, Powell is touching the ball more. For the same games that Powell and Forte both played in, Powell is averaging 12.2 touches per game while Forte is averaging 10.2 touches. That alone tells me that the Jets are making a concentrated effort to keep the ball in Powell’s hands, even though Forte has seen the field more. If Powell was a north-south, bruising running back, Forte would have much more value as a guy that can catch the ball out of the backfield. The Jets have surprised us by playing much better than anyone really anticipated, but they will still play from behind a lot which would fit Forte. Powell isn’t that type of runner though and mirrors Forte’s attributes in both the running and passing game.
Here is the simple point though. I gave you a ton of numbers, spent time breaking down stats and the easiest thing to say is, Forte just isn’t that good anymore. Forte comes in at RB33 right now in PPR formats but dynasty owners can skip on the aging player and target guys behind him who are getting ready to offer better numbers. You can look at Marlon Mack (RB40), Doug Martin (RB46) and Alex Collins (RB47) as flex players who will have higher upside throughout the year. Skip on the name and go for the younger guys who could be better plays in 2017 and beyond.
Javorius Allen (RB, BAL)
If you don’t know it already, the NFL is brutal. One second you have a job and you land on the #TrendingUp portion of my article (I know, a sense of self-fulfillment for all players) and within a couple of weeks you’ve lost snaps to another breakout player and you appear to be headed back to the bench. It’s been a roller coaster for Javoris “Buck” Allen this season as he found a role early after the injury to Danny Woodhead and outplayed Terrence West.
Alex Collins, who was added in the preseason after being cut by the Seahawks, has picked up steam after carrying the ball 18 times for 113 yards in a win against the Dolphins this past week. The performance was enough that John Harbaugh even stated in his press conference that Collins deserved more work. Collins will add a tough running element to the offense that Allen just doesn’t bring. Collins has averaged 6.0 yards per carry in 2017 which currently leads the league while Allen has only averaged 3.6 yards per carry. The one area that Allen had Collins beat was receptions per game. Allen has been averaging four receptions per game while Collins didn’t snag his first reception till this past week. With that being said, the Ravens have announced Woodhead has returned to practice and will be eligible to return against Green Bay on November 19th.
As long as Collins continues to run hard and Woodhead doesn’t have a setback, Allen won’t have many snaps left for the rest of the season. Long term, the Ravens backfield is unknown. They have Allen and Collins who have shared a majority of the workload this year, Woodhead who has dealt with injures but should still log some valuable playing time towards the end, Kenneth Dixon who is out for the season with a torn meniscus and Terrence West, who may not be in the picture much longer. I’m rooting for Collins to secure the job this year, even though all of my Dixon dynasty shares will be useless. If you’re looking to build for 2018, I wouldn’t bet on anyone from this backfield for right now.
