RADIO
Way back in March, I wrote a multi-part tutorial on how to use all of the metrics cited in Champ or Chump. I concluded the series by introducing Barrels and Brls/BBE, arguing that the metrics could have been used to predict Chris Carter's 2016 HR title had they been available before the season started. Gary Sanchez led baseball in Brls/BBE last season, foreshadowing his breakout 2017 season just as Carter's rate in 2015 indicated his 2016 was coming. The stats appear to have merit.
That said, the stats are also new enough that baselines have not been established yet. When discussing Barrels allowed for pitchers, I suggested that the quality of contact allowed by both Chris Archer and Justin Verlander made them risky investments at their Draft Day costs. Let's see if the advice was accurate.
ADP data provided is from FantasyPros.
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The Fantasy Jury is Out
Chris Archer (SP, TB) 2017 ADP: 53
Archer is striking out the world (29.2% K%) this season, and his 3.32 xFIP suggests that he should have helped in ERA as well. Unfortunately, his 4.18 ERA is nowhere near ace status while his nine wins are meh. The result is a one-category contributor who was generally taken in the fifth round. Ouch.
Let's begin with the one thing that went right for Archer this year. His dominant K% is primarily the work of his slider. It is a classic wipeout pitch with a 19.5% SwStr%, 44% chase rate, and 44.8% Zone%. Archer sets it up with a fastball in the zone (51.3% Zone%, 7.7% SwStr%) and an occasional change to keep hitters honest (14.6% SwStr%). Overall, the repertoire produces enough swings-and-misses to support a strong K%.
The repertoire's limited nature also makes Archer predictable at times, ensuring that contact against him is problematic. Archer is really a two-pitch pitcher, as he only features his change 8.2% of the time. It isn't as easy as throwing more changeups either, as batters tee off on it (.353/.400/.412) when they're not taking it for a ball (34.6% Zone%, 32.8% chase). This leaves the fastball exposed, allowing opposing hitters to slash .286/.365/.519 with 14 HR against it this year. Even the slider isn't foolproof, as 13 of them left the yard so far this season.
Archer has allowed 27 HR in total this year, a number mitigated somewhat by his pitcher-friendly home park (10 HR allowed at home). Archer always seems to be on the trading block due to his team's limited payroll flexibility, and a trade to a more hitter-friendly venue could prove disastrous for his fantasy value.
Archer's 14.6% HR/FB and 70.8% strand rate are roughly luck-neutral, but his .328 BABIP seems a little inflated. He gave up a ton of quality contact last season, including 46 Barrels and an average airborne exit velocity of 93.4 mph. He improved both metrics this year (32 Barrels, 92.5 mph), but still struggled with balls in play. Barrels are not Archer's primary problem.
A poor BABIP could be the result of weak defensive support, but this is probably not the case here. The Rays feature the number one defense in baseball by DRS, providing a collective 51 of them. The infield is led by third baseman Evan Longoria (11 DRS) and shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria (five) in this regard. Switching to Outs Above Average for outfielders, Tampa ranks second in baseball with a combined score of 23. It is possible that usually stalwart defenders save their worst work for when Archer is on the mound, but it's more likely that Archer himself is the problem.
At any rate, Archer's BABIP allowed on both fly balls (.126 vs. .104) and line drives (.704 vs. .649) is higher than his career average. Part of the problem is likely Kevin Kiermaier's extended absence this season, limiting him to 12 OAA when he compiled 16 last season. Assuming he stays healthy and Archer remains a Ray next season, there is nothing in Archer's profile supporting his BABIPs on airborne baseballs.
Instead, Archer is hampered by ground balls. His .272 BABIP allowed on the ground is over 20 points higher than the league average rate but only three points above his career mark. The reason for this is two-fold. First, Archer allows very hard contact on the ground. His average ground ball exit velocity of 85.9 mph is actually his best mark in the Statcast Era, as he posted exit velocities of 86.9 mph and 87.6 mph over the previous two seasons. Pitchers want something between 81 and 83 as a general rule, so Archer is considerably higher than he wants to be.
Second, Archer is a terrible fielder once the ball is in play. He has -3 Defensive Runs Saved this year, contributing to his career total of -8 over 962 innings. Airborne balls are rarely fielded by a pitcher, so all of this negative fielding value is reflected in his BABIP on ground balls. Between elevated ground ball exit velocities and his own poor glovework, there is no reason to project an improvement in Archer's BABIP on ground balls moving forward.
Archer's 22.2% LD% (20.3% career) is likely to normalize next year, but he'll still allow too many baserunners due to his predictable repertoire and struggles with ground balls. Wins and Quality Starts will be hard to come by in Tampa, and he looks like a candidate for gopheritis if he's traded anywhere else. Buy Archer as a one category specialist if he ends up falling far enough, but let somebody else have him for the cost of an ace.
Verdict: Chump
Justin Verlander (SP, HOU) 2017 ADP: 39.5
Verlander has gone 15-8 with a 3.36 ERA (4.17 xFIP) this season, but you never felt as though you owned those numbers during the campaign. His first half was a disaster, as he compiled a 4.73 ERA, 21% K%, and 10.9% BB% through July. He rebounded in a big way after the break, posting a 1.95 ERA with an elite 31.7% K% and 5.5% BB%. Who is the real Justin Verlander?
Sadly, luck metrics suggest that Verlander's first half performance is more indicative of what he will be going forward. His first half's 72.1% LOB% is nearly identical to his career rate (73.9%) while the 96.9% he's posted in the second half borders on absurd. His .316 BABIP in the first half was also above his career mark of .286, but it's still more believable than his second half mark of .211. This is especially true if you consider Verlander's three straight years of declining IFFB% rates (13.8% in 2015, 11.3% last year, 9.8% this year), suggesting that he's lost one of the skills that once made him so effective.
Verlander's BABIP on ground balls is 30 points below his career norm (.217 vs. .247) thanks in part to a better exit velocity on ground balls (82 mph vs. 84.6 last year), but the defense behind him should be negating the change and then some. He spent 172 of his 206 IP this season in front of the Detroit defense. Middle infielders Ian Kinsler and Jose Iglesias have contributed five DRS each, but they are more than canceled out by 3B Nick Castellanos (-14), 1B Miguel Cabrera (-8), and the team's catchers (-5 combined). The Tigers also have reserves who have been brutal with the glove in a limited sample, including Jeimar Candelario at third base and Andrew Romine at second (-6 each).
Overall, Detroit's -59 DRS are the second worst mark in baseball. The trade to the Astros gave him a better defense (-18, 20th), but it still leaves something to be desired. Middle infielders Jose Altuve (three) and Carlos Correa (two) aren't as good as their Detroit counterparts, and catcher Brian McCann (-12) is nearly as bad as Castellanos. Both 1B Yulieski Gurriel (-5) and 3B Alex Bregman (-3) are lacking in the defense department as well, making it challenging to project a favorable BABIP on ground balls for Verlander next year.
The trade improved Verlander's outfield defense dramatically, going from Detroit's collective -10 OAA (26th in baseball) to Houston's nine (7th). Verlander is beating his career BABIPs on both fly balls (.096 vs. .105) and line drives (.623 vs. .697), but it is difficult to point to 34 IP out of 206 as the reason why. He's allowing roughly the same number of Barrels as he did last year (7.2% Brls/BBE this year, 7.7% last year) with a higher average airborne exit velocity (92.6 mph vs. 91.7 last season), so nothing has changed on Verlander's end either. His airborne BABIPs look like a total fluke.
His repertoire is also not up to the task of sustaining his second half K% over a full season. Verlander features a full compliment of pitches, throwing a fastball (56.5% usage), slider (career-high 21.1%), curve (15.6%), and change (3.9%). He used to throw the change more often (8.5% last year), but its 46.5% Zone%, 10.6% SwStr%, and 31.6% chase rate give it little use. Verlander's K% has surged because the change has been replaced with the slider (17.7% SwStr%, 39.2% chase, 45.1% Zone%), but its SwStr% and chase rate are on the low side for an elite strikeout arm's best weapon.
Verlander's curve accomplishes nothing (8.9% SwStr%, 29.9% chase, 43% Zone%) and would not be missed if he shelved it permanently. Verlander's heater has been excellent (8.5% SwStr%, 54.6% Zone%), but its results once put in play (.203/.292/.308) seem a little too good to be true (.256/.334/.411 career). Given the strikeout surge in the game, Verlander can probably repeat his overall K% of 25.8% next year. His ace-like second half requires considerably more than that, however, and the repertoire just isn't there to deliver it.
Verlander's 11.5% HR/FB is considerably better than league average, but his fly ball profile (42.7% FB%) gives him considerable downside if the homer surge catches up to him. His K% and BABIP already look like mirages, but it seems likely that somebody will pay a brand name premium next March. Do not make that mistake!
Verdict: Chump
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