RADIO
Imagine being told you could have a running back who will get will over 1,000 yards rushing and 1,000 yards receiving in the same season while likely scoring double-digit touchdowns. No, I’m not talking about Marshall Faulk’s participation in the “Greatest Show on Turf” in 1999. I’m talking about what Cardinals running back David Johnson has predicted for himself for the 2017 NFL season.
In an age where running backs are receiving less and less carries each year, workhorse backs have become a rare commodity. These backs need to have a three-down skill set and have coaches who don’t mind giving them the majority of the team’s carries each game.
For the upcoming season, there are only a handful of names that come to mind when owners think about who the elite workhorse backs will be. At the top of almost every list is none other than David Johnson himself. But is he destined to break the hearts of those who select him with the first overall pick?
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David Johnson - Heartbreaker?
When evaluating potential first-round picks in fantasy football, there are three main factors to consider. Let's see how Johnson stacks up in each to determine whether last season was the beginning of an amazing career, or simply a flash in the pan.
Talent
For the past two NFL seasons, David Johnson has taken the league by storm. As a rookie, Johnson was not given the started job until his peer Chris Johnson went down with an injury. David Johnson finished the year with 4.6 yards a carry and a ridiculous 12.7 yards per catch on 36 receptions. He was equally efficient in the endzone, scoring 13 touchdowns through the course of the season. Many fantasy analysts had him pegged as a risky first-round pick in drafts in 2016, and Johnson did not disappoint. After scoring 20 touchdowns and gaining over 2,000 yards from scrimmage, Johnson posted one of the best seasons of a running back in recent memory. Even though he only averaged 4.2 yards per carry, he was often facing a stacked box and had little help from his offensive line. Johnson continued to dominate in the receiving game almost reaching 1,000 receiving yards and recording 80 receptions. It’s clear that David Johnson is an elite running back in the NFL and will be for years to come.
Opportunity
After having a 7-8-1 season in 2016 and suffering from poor performances from quarterback Carson Palmer, the Cardinals will try to rebound and once again push to become a playoff contender in the NFC West. Owners should not be scared by the possibility of the Cardinals facing potentially negative game scripts as a reason to not draft David Johnson. Johnson proved last year that despite playing in a struggling offense last year, he can make something out of nothing. It’s expected to assume that he has some regression, but that claim may be unwarranted considering statements being made by head coach Bruce Arians about his usage. Arians himself stated he wanted to give David Johnson around 30 touches per game earlier in the offseason, and he has stuck with this statement throughout training camp. While it is unrealistic to assume that David Johnson will receive that many touches per game every game, the fact that the Cardinals have stated that they want him to be involved on virtually every play is a notion unparalleled by any other team in the league. Combined with his All-World talent, David Johnson also has an unprecedented amount of opportunity in the current state of the NFL.
Risk
WIth every workhorse running back comes the risk of injury. It makes logical sense: the more times a player gets hit or takes a snap, the more likely he will get injured as his body feels the wear and tear of being used so frequently. This was seen in the last game of the 2016 season, where Johnson suffered an MCL sprain in the first quarter of the game against the Rams. Johnson does not have much of an injury history to speak of, but it is a possibility that he could very well be in a similar situation given the amount of work he is expected to receive this year. However, at the end of the day, it is fantasy football that we are talking about here. In the NFL, every player has a chance to get injured - it is a fact of playing a professional sport. When fantasy owners are given a choice between David Johnson and the next player with the first overall pick, they should not hesitate when making the decision to buy in to David Johnson’s dominance. He has the perfect mix of elite talent with unprecedented opportunity - the only way he will let owners down is if he gets injured. How likely is that? As likely as any other player getting injured.
David Johnson should be one of the top picks in every single draft this upcoming year - in any format. He is too good of a player to let fantasy owners down; unless he gets injured, it is very likely that he will repeat his 2016 season and potentially have an even better 2017. The league is his for the taking - so go out there and get him on your team if you can.
