RADIO
I'm sure you've heard this expression before. Every year, the word "sleeper" is thrown around a lot as we're all anxious and eager to find the next big thing that no one is really talking about. Well, sometimes you just have to let the sleeping dogs lie.
As tempting as it may be to believe that all our pet players we target late in drafts will break through, more often than not it simply doesn't come to pass. Here are five "sleepers" that you don't want to wake up in the 2017 fantasy football season.
ADPs are based on 12-team PPR leagues from Fantasy Football Calculator.
Editor's Note: Steer clear of costly draft mistakes with RotoBaller’s expert Fantasy Football Bust analysis. We break down overvalued players, potential letdowns, and risky ADPs to avoid, so you can build a smarter, safer roster.
Sleepers Who Won't Wake Up
Kareem Hunt (KC, 8.04, RB37)
Sure, Spencer Ware could get hurt and thrust Kareem Hunt into a starting role. Or, the more likely scenario, Hunt is a satellite back playing behind Ware and hoping, at best, to match Charcandrick West's playing time from last season.
Hunt is facing a major step up in competition from playing at Toledo in the MAC to the NFL. And Hunt wasn't even that dominant at Toledo. His SPARQ-x score was in the 19th percentile and he only ran a 4.62 40 time. He's less agile than Spencer Ware despite weighing 13 pounds fewer. Ware was number two in FootballOutsiders' DVOA receiving metric that measures how much better a player was adjusted for defense. Ware is an elite pass catcher, which is the role Hunt hopes to occupy. He very well may.
But then what do we have? A part time back in a low volume offense. Hunt needs something to happen to Ware in order to have fantasy value. There are players going after Hunt that have standalone RB3 value with a clear path to more. Hunt has a clear path to RB2 value - that being a Ware injury - but no value otherwise. Pass.
Joe Williams (SF, 12.08, RB52)
This will be short and sweet. Joe Williams is not good at football. He's so incredibly untalented that he is going to open the season not only behind Carlos Hyde (who is vastly superior), but behind Tim Hightower as well.
He has good straight-ahead speed, but he'll need more than that to succeed in the NFL once the regular season begins. Remember, this is also a man that nearly quit football entirely during his college career. There is almost no scenario where Williams finds himself with any fantasy value in 2017.
Marlon Mack (IND, 13.02, RB55)
Eventually, Frank Gore is going to fall apart. I've predicted it for three straight years now. I'm 0/3. And yes, I am predicting it for a fourth consecutive year. Here's the thing - even if I'm correct, it's not going to be Marlon Mack. Mack actually has pretty good measurables and profiles as a nice satellite back. He's not going to be a feature back.
If Gore finally succumbs to Father Time, the next man up is Robert Turbin. He's been having a great camp and is listed ahead of Mack on the depth chart. Did you know Turbin had eight touchdowns last season? Best case for Mack is he's on the wrong side of a committee. Worst case is he takes a complete back seat to Turbin. I just don't see the upside, unless you are in a dynasty league looking for depth.
DeVante Parker (MIA, 8.03, WR38)
I know. I know. His athleticism is off the charts. He can make big plays. He dominated in college. I liked him a lot out of Louisville. It's been two NFL seasons now. It's time for what he's put on tape in the NFL to supersede his college metrics.
DeVante Parker is soft and unless his mindset changes, he will never amount to anything resembling a fantasy starter. He shies away from contact and doesn't use his large frame and physical tools to his advantage. His 44.4% contested catch rate speaks to that. He looked slower in his first preseason game than the 4.45 40 he ran two years ago. He doesn't generate extra yards when he catches the ball and is largely inefficient.
The third year breakout is a thing of the past. If a WR is good, in the modern NFL, we know well before year three. Parker is outside my top 50.
Nelson Agholor (PHI, 13.09, WR62)
I'm going with Nelson Agholor as the last name on this list because I expect his ADP to shoot up a couple rounds in light of the Jordan Matthews trade. With JMatt off to Buffalo, there's an opening for the Eagles' second WR opposite Alshon Jeffery. I expect it to be Nelson Agholor. That's horrendous and so are the Eagles. Agholor graded out as one of the worst WRs in the league and has been a massive underachiever through his entire career.
He legitimately should not be on a team. I don't care about how incredible he was in training camp. The man is terrible at football. I can start with his USC pedigree, which is not a compliment. The last relevant USC WR you ask? The "other" Steve Smith. Before that, it was Keyshawn Johnson! USC does not produce good NFL WRs and Agholor is no exception. In 2015, Agholor graded out as Pro Football Focus' worst WR. In 2016, Agholor posted a stellar -23.3% DVOA rating on Football Outsiders.
He averaged a whopping 0.1 fantasy points per snap last season. Agholor inexplicably led the Eagles in red zone targets last year with 17. He caught zero of them for touchdowns. In his preseason debut, he let a two point conversion pass go right through his hands. New season. Same old Agholor. Even when his ADP spikes a bit with the talk of him beating out Torrey Smith for the number two role, ignore it. And while you're at it, ignore Torrey Smith as well.
