RADIO
The conventional wisdom in fantasy football that verges on outright dogma is that there is no more important position to a team’s success than a running back. While we have seen rule changes that have caused a spike in passing numbers and an increase in the popularity of PPR formats, championship teams from a year ago were more likely to include at least one of David Johnson, Le’Veon Bell, and/or Ezekiel Elliott than not, across the board. QBs score more points overall, but the draft economy in standard formats is such that there are plenty to go around. By contrast, the pool of genuinely useful RBs depletes rather quickly.
Simple math tells us that there can be no more than 32 starters at the RB position at any given moment, but as of this writing, there are no fewer than 10 teams for which it is not currently possible to confidently name that “starter.” From the hip, I can think of the Pats, Jets, Ravens, Vikings, Panthers, Saints, Giants, Seahawks, Redskins- even the 49ers are allegedly making Carols Hyde earn his lead role in preseason. This makes drafting players outside the top 25 at the position a very boom or bust proposition.
At that point, you’re mostly looking at players for whom the designation of “starter” is not an appropriate one. You’ll find the guys who are seemingly entrenched in committees like Tevin Coleman, Jonathan Stewart, Theo Riddick, and Matt Forte, and there’s certainly value to be had in such players, but you’ll also find the guys who are, at draft time, the apparent second string- the “handcuff” RBs. For the purposes of this article, we’ll mostly eschew those backfields that look like clear committees, and focus on the handcuff class at RB. In most cases, each handcuff that is drafted is a better bet to find his way to the waiver wire at some point during the season than he is to stick around for a hypothetical fantasy playoff run. Even so, those teams who were fortunate enough to snag LeGarrette Blount, Jordan Howard, Jay Ajayi, or Tevin Coleman late in drafts, or in many cases on the waiver wire, know that finding a handcuff that’s more than a handcuff could mean the difference between winning a championship and missing the playoffs. What we’re looking for is a player who is drafted significantly later than his backfield mate, but nevertheless presents an opportunity to contribute to your team even without an injury to the de facto starter.
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Values for Backup RBs
Category 1 - Are they handcuffs?
The following players have almost too much value to be considered handcuffs, but bear mentioning:
Adrian Peterson, New Orleans Saints - The clear first ballot Hall of Famer is playing for the notoriously running back by committee (RBBC) enthusiast Sean Payton. Going approximately 50 picks after his backfield mate, Mark Ingram, it’s difficult to envision a scenario where “AD” (yes AD is the preferred acronym), doesn’t carve out a substantial role in the offense, even if it’s as a 1B player. As a PPR bonus, Peterson has set a personal goal for himself of 500 rec. yards. This could potentially help him to return RB2 value in PPR formats even mired in a committee.
Samaje Perine, Washington Redskins - For as good as backfield mate Rob Kelley was in 2016, you’d have to figure he will get the courtesy nod as the nominal starter in 2017, at least as a preseason designation. That said, it would be a mistake to overrate his entrenchment as the lead dog in the Washington backfield. Enter Samaje Perine, the Redskins 4th round pick in the 2017 draft, and the first player the team selected on offense. All indications are that Perine will be given every opportunity to compete for the starting job right away and his skill set profiles well for a short yardage and goal line role even as the 1B to Kelley’s 1A.
Thomas Rawls, Seattle Seahawks - The Seahawks backfield is suddenly crowded, albeit with three different players that missed huge chunks of last season with injuries. Eddie Lacy is the best bet for a presumptive starter, but it is very difficult to ignore what Rawls has done when healthy, leading the league in yards per carry in 2015 at 5.6 and even showing flashes during an injury ravaged 2016. It’s easy to envision Pete Carroll turning to the hot hand wherever it develops, and Rawls will have opportunities to play his way into a higher snap count.
James White, New England Patriots - How can the hero of Super Bowl LI be a handcuff in 2017 drafts? Well, it has a lot to do with how overcrowded the New England backfield is at present. After bringing in Mike Gillislee for early down work and Rex Burkhead (more to come on him later), there seems to be four guys who could legitimately compete for work. With Gillislee being viewed as the ‘starter’ and multiple third down backs in the fold, James White is falling in drafts to the point where he could provide tremendous value, especially in PPR. His prospects would become even more appealing if the Patriots jettison Dion Lewis, as has been speculated. Don’t be too intoxicated by his insane 45 fantasy points (PPR scoring) in the Super Bowl, but he did close out last season, including playoffs, with at least three catches and/or a TD in 15 of his last 16 games, so the standalone value is there in PPR, albeit not without some risk.
Category 2 - Productive becomes explosive?
These early down backs have standalone value even as backups, with RB1 potential if called upon to start:
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans The hype simply didn’t pan out a year ago. Overdrafted in anticipation of a full blown committee in 2016, Henry yielded almost completely to DeMarco Murray who turned in yet another brilliant RB1 season. There are reasons to think things might be a bit different in 2017 however. As much use as DeMarco has seen over the past half dozen or so seasons, it isn’t hard to attribute his fade in the second half of last season as a product of wear and tear, not to mention a toe injury he suffered in Thursday Night Football against the Jaguars. Murray’s bum toe probably stayed with him for the remainder of the regular season and could easily have put a lid on his upside. We could be looking at much closer to an even carry split in 2017 if the Titans decide to keep their RBs fresh for the stretch run. It’s fair to wonder if the Titans offense would miss a beat in the event that DeMarco Murray missed time, and Derrick Henry once again looks like a handcuff that could become an RB1 in 2017.
Jonathan Williams, Buffalo Bills - Even though LeSean McCoy played 15 of 16 games en route to yet another high end RB1 season in 2016, it didn’t prevent Mike Gillislee from having a very productive season in his own right. Rushing 101 times for 577 yards and poaching eight rushing TDs, to go with one more through the air, Gillislee produced even in a backup role. Now Jonathan Williams is the heir apparent to Gillislee’s workload as the Bills really didn’t do anything to shore up their RB situation in the draft, ostensibly a vote of confidence in Williams. Approaching the age and mileage where RBs have been known to precipitously decline, and enduring hamstring injuries each of the past two years, there’s little reason to expect any less an opportunity for Williams than Gillislee saw a year ago. On an offense built around running the ball, Jonathan Williams also has that RB1 lottery ticket appeal that you look for in a handcuff.
Kareem Hunt, Kansas City Chiefs - At the risk of giving Andy Reid too much credit, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention that he has coached such RBs as Brian Westbrook, Jamaal Charles, and LeSean McCoy. It’s probably reasonable to say, at this point, that Spencer Ware is not on that level. After an outstanding week 1 in 2016, we saw a long fade from Ware in which he didn’t perform particularly well and his coach didn’t seem to have any interest in using him in a fantasy friendly way. In modern NFL terms, the 3rd round draft pick the Chiefs used on Hunt is a sizeable investment for a RB. Ware will get the veteran nod early, but Hunt will have opportunities to carve out a big role, if not to wrestle the starting role away entirely. Hunt belongs high on any RB sleepers list and could explode if he becomes a bellcow.
Marlon Mack, Indianapolis Colts - Forgive the lack of creativity in this statement, but to put it quite simply- Frank Gore is 34 years old. If RBs had an expiration date, Gore’s would have come and gone half a decade ago, yet he continues to juke father time with every passing season. It’s a tremendous story, but eventually the other shoe will drop. Granted, this is going to read much like any other blurb touting a Frank Gore handcuff over the past handful of seasons, but eventually the analysis will be correct; it’s inevitable. Marlon Mack has impressive measurables, performed well behind a subpar offensive line in South Florida and garnered a 4th round pick in the 2017 draft. There aren’t many rookies with a better opportunity than Mack, and the ones there are have been flying off the board at least 50 or so picks sooner. We should be happy making a relatively inexpensive bet against Gore carrying a full load and/or staying healthy in 2017. *Footnote: There is an emergent narrative that journeyman Robert Turbin has been impressive this spring. While it's hard to imagine Turbin having greater upside than Mack, if Marlon can't ascend to the #2 role during the preseason, it will be hard for him to have "stand-alone" value. Nevertheless, Mack should be the preferred "upside" hedge.
Jacquizz Rodgers, Tampa Bay Bucs - Doug Martin is suspended for the first three games of 2017 so Rodgers should have a relatively unchallenged hold on the lion’s share of carries in Tampa until week 4. Rodgers doesn’t profile as the sort of back who can stay healthy over a full 16 games (see the foot injury that kept him out of most of the second half of the 2016 season) but Tampa proved that they will lean on him in a temporary starting role to the tune of 20+ touches if the game script calls for it. He’s the ultimate short term, head start play at RB. If one were to believe he could stick as the full season starter, they could make that argument, but anything beyond week 3 should probably be viewed as gravy.
Category 3 - Third down backs of note.
What they lack in RB1 upside, they make up for in standalone PPR value:
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints - Drew Brees loves to throw the football to his RBs and 3rd round pick Alvin Kamara is probably the most talented player the Saints have had to fill that 3rd down role since Darren Sproles. He’s not a candidate to ascend to bellcow status except on an emergency basis, but he has legit 50+ catch and 125+ touch upside. The Saints traded up to get him and have even used him at WR in OTAs. It’s easy to envision him making a big impact in PPR as a rookie. Meanwhile playing behind perennial fantasy stalwarts Mark Ingram and Adrian Peterson could distract the rest of your league from seeing the opportunity.
Rex Burkhead, New England Patriots - Although James White was quite serviceable in the passing down role in 2016, Rex Burkhead should not be ignored. Another player who could see some snaps at WR, Burkhead might actually end up finding his way onto the field more than you’d expect in 2017. If economics mean anything to you, Burkhead’s one year 3.15 million dollar deal made him the highest paid RB for the Pats since 2010- that is until they signed Gillislee to a two year 6.4 million offer sheet a month later. As impressive as James White was a year ago, Burkhead might be the forgotten man in 2017 drafts, but this is a competition that needs to be monitored closely as it’s hard to imagine a scenario where at least one of the two doesn’t return RB2 value in PPR.
C.J. Prosise, Seattle Seahawks - Obviously Eddie Lacy and Thomas Rawls figure to dominate early down work. I made my case for Rawls earlier, but there’s something to be said for the player with the least redundant skill set of the three. C.J. flashed tremendous upside in the two games in which he saw significant work as a rookie and is obviously the best suited back for passing downs. In three halves of football between weeks 10 and 11, he piled up 234 yards from scrimmage and a TD before a fractured scapula derailed his potential breakout. Injury risk should be factored into the analysis with Prosise, but there’s little doubt that he’ll play a significant role when healthy. He’s well worth a flier as a PPR RB4.
