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For those who have played in a dynasty league, the fundamental difference is that every player and every move needs to be viewed through a long-term lens, whereas in redraft we only care what the players will be doing for the current season. Sometimes this change in viewpoint doesn't change player value much, but sometimes it makes a huge difference. Let's take a look at some players who should be redraft studs this season, but who may not have many useful seasons left, making them dynasty duds. For argument's sake, all ADP references are from 12-team PPR leagues on Fantasy Football Calculator.
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Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.
Tom Brady, New England Patriots
While Brady is currently serving a four-game suspension, he is expected to be rather angry and ready to stomp out all competitors who stand in his way upon his return in Week 5. The Patriots offense is a proven gold mine for fantasy production and should be just as strong this season after adding Martellus Bennett to the fold. While Brady has a good chance at finishing as a QB1, even if he misses 25% of his games this year, his stock takes a huge hit in future seasons. With Brady entering his age 39 season, it's doubtful whether he has many good years left. Peyton Manning showed us last season that when a quarterback loses it, it goes in a hurry. From a dynasty outlook, Brady is fine as your starting quarterback in 2016, but it would be wise to seek out replacement options in the future, especially if your team is in a rebuilding mode.
Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings
This one is a bit of a no-brainer, but Peterson is entering his age 31 season. The veteran back is already cheating Father Time as most running backs fall off a cliff once they hit 30. Following a 2015 season which saw him notch yet another 300-touch season, a question about just how much longer he will be able to perform at a high level has to be raised. In redraft formats, expect Peterson to push to be the top scoring running back this season as the Vikings can be expected to feed him the ball, especially with Teddy Bridgewater lost for the season. The problem from a dynasty perspective, of course, is just how much gas can possibly be left in the tank at this point in his career. With Jerick McKinnon waiting in the wings, it may be time for the Peterson owner in dynasty leagues to see what another owner would be willing to give for him.
Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs
Charles will attempt to come back from a season-ending ACL injury which he suffered in October of 2015. With reports that Charles may not be ready for the start of the season, he has turned into a high-risk/high-reward player in redraft formats. With all that being said, one thing we do know about Charles is that he is one of the top running backs in his generation and that Andy Reid will feature him almost exclusively when he's healthy. In redraft leagues, fantasy owners will have to have faith that Charles will be fully recovered sooner than later and will resemble the All-Pro running back that they've come to know and love. From a dynasty perspective, Charles is one of the worst investments a dynasty player can make unless they are in win-now mode. Charles may have one or two good years left in the tank, but at age 29 with a handful of ACL injuries in his rear view mirror, someone else can have him in dynasty formats as far as I'm concerned.
Jordy Nelson, Green Bay Packers
Nelson is in a similar situation as Charles as he's attempting to come back from a torn ACL in his left knee while in the latter stages of his career. Nelson is 31 now and has been experiencing soreness in his right knee during preseason. While there is some concern about Nelson's ability to return to pre-injury form, he has been remarkably consistent with Aaron Rodgers over his career and he can be expected to be Rodgers' top target this season. From a dynasty standpoint, it's hard to view Nelson as a long-term asset, regardless of how good he has a chance at being in 2016. Similar to Charles, let someone else in your dynasty league worry about him.
Brandon Marshall, New York Jets
Marshall likely has one or two more elite seasons left, but the star wideout is getting up there in age at 32 and has been dealing with hip issues over the past few seasons. Time has proven again and again that big-bodied receivers such as Marshall tend to lose it in a hurry when they start to slip. While he has a nice shot at putting up another WR1 season while catching passes from Ryan Fitzpatrick, this could be the last time we see Marshall do so. He's definitely a fade in dynasty startups and his owners should be looking to cash him in for something before his value plummets unless in win-now mode.
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