The Buffalo Bills have had an up and down offseason. They were able to re-sign some key pieces on both sides of the ball, keeping most of their team together from last season. However, after some suspensions and injuries the outlook for the team isn’t as bright as some Bills fans would like.

The Bills continue their endless search for the playoffs amidst the longest playoff droughts in all of sports. Rex Ryan is on the hot seat this season after leading the Bills to a mediocre 8-and-8 finish. Buffalo sported the top rushing offense in the league last season, and figures to do more of the same this season.

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Quarterback

The Bills welcome back Tyrod Taylor, who recently inked a juicy new, incentive-laden contract. Taylor has come a long way in his career; coming from college and being asked to change positions due to his height, to being drafted by the Ravens and held as a backup for four years, to the starting QB of the Buffalo Bills. Taylor exceeded even the loftiest expectations Bills fans had last season after he won the starting job over E.J. Manuel and Matt Cassel. While missing two games, he threw for 3,035 yards and 20 TDs to only six INTs. He then ran for an additional 568 yards and four touchdowns. His 5.5 YPC was tied for first among QBs with Russell Wilson. His 7:3 TD:INT ratio placed him seventh overall in the league. Taylor proved to many in his first season as a starter that he has what it takes to be successful in the league.

Coming into his second full year, more of the same is expected from Tyrod Taylor. His one weakness last season was his ability to throw over the middle of the field, which is something he worked on extensively this offseason. In training camp and through preseason (I know it’s just preseason, but still) he made several throws to receivers through tight windows, looking like he’s made some improvements in that area. Last season his deep ball was excellent, and with a healthy Sammy Watkins on the outside along with Marquise Goodwin and his world-class speed, the deep ball will be utilized big time once again in 2016. While it remains to be seen if Taylor can make it through a whole season healthy, he has unquestionable talent and has the potential to be an upper-level QB in this league. Taylor is currently being drafted as the #13 quarterback in the league according to fantasyfootballcalculator. Tyrod’s ability to run and pass to all areas of the field will lead to him outperforming this ranking by a long shot.

 

Running Back

Arguably the biggest fantasy asset the Bills have is their feature back, LeSean McCoy. Last season was a down year overall for McCoy in his first season in the red white and blue He rushed 203 times for 895 yards (4.4 avg.) and three TDs. He also chipped in with 32 receptions for 292 yards and two scores. Once he got fully healthy he showed what he was able to bring to this offense. From Weeks 9-to-15, Shady averaged 21 touches per game, 109 yards, and a TD nearly every other game. He showed the same explosiveness and cutting ability that made him a spectacle to watch in Philadelphia. A healthy Shady is clearly a productive one, and this season he comes in fully healthy and fully acclimated into the offense.

Expectations are high this season for the running game, but outside of McCoy the options look somewhat slim. Karlos Williams, the team’s primary backup last season, was released due to showing up to training camp out of shape and violating the league’s substance abuse policy, which got him suspended for the first four games of the 2016 season. The team signed Reggie Bush, who is slated to be the primary return man this season. He is expected to carry some of the load at RB, along with Mike Gillislee and rookie Jonathan Williams. None of these four players will be fantasy relevant unless McCoy suffers an injury, in which case it’s anyone’s guess who will receive most of the work. Bush hasn’t played a full season since 2012, Gillislee was good in small chunks last season, but when given the chance against the Jets in Week 17 he rushed for 28 yards on 24 carries. Williams is a big back, who the Bills may give a look at some point.

This however is Shady’s backfield, and his dual rushing/receiving threat in a run-first offense gives him the potential to finish as a top-five RB in fantasy.

 

Wide Receiver

Outside of stud wideout Sammy Watkins, there isn’t much to write home about with this receiving corps. Good thing for the Bills, when healthy Sammy Watkins is one of the best receivers in the league. Watkins last season tallied 1.047 yards and nine TDs on 60 receptions. If you look at his stats by themselves, you won’t be blown away. If you take his second half of the season, once he was fully healthy and his rapport with Tyrod Taylor developed, you will have a better painted picture of what the dup can bring to the table in 2016. From Weeks 9-to-17, Watkins went on an absolute tear. He caught 49 passes over those nine weeks on 78 targets for 900 yards and seven scores. He had five games over 100 yards, and four games with 10 or more targets.

Watkins had offseason foot surgery, but is back now 100% healthy and ready to head into the season. He will be the primary receiving threat on the Bills and will be heavily targeted as long as he is healthy. Alongside Watkins is fourth year receiver Robert Woods. Woods played mostly all of last season injured, dealing with a torn groin on his left and right side. He didn’t say a word, and battled through the injury instead of getting it healed. After offseason surgery and rehab, he is back to being fully healthy. He will make a difference in this offense for sure this season, as defenses zone in on McCoy and Watkins. The Bills third wide receiver spot is still up for grabs, but speedster Marquise Goodwin and preseason standout Walter Powell figure to get most of the looks there. This receiving corps will be improved from last season, partly due to everyone being fully healthy, and partly due to Tyrod Taylor having a full year under his belt gaining a rapport with these receivers.

Watkins is far and away the best fantasy option here, however Robert Woods should get some lone in deeper leagues, and gains immediate value if anything happens to Watkins. While this is mainly a run first offense, Taylor has shown he can throw it short, long, over the middle, and down the sidelines. The upside here for these receivers is tremendous.

 

Tight End

Charles Clay enters his second season in a Bills uniform as the only relevant pass-catching TE in this offense. Last season Clay played in 13 games, catching 51 passes for 528 yards and three scores. Clay flashed big-game potential, having six games with six or more targets, five games with five or more receptions, and had two games with nine receptions. However, sandwich between all of those games were days with one reception, two targets, single digit yardage. The plan for this season is to get Clay more involved after the coaching staff watched game tape from last season and identified numerous occasions where Clay beat the defense and was open, but not targeted. That will be fixed going into this season, meaning those low-output games should be a thing of the past, and he should be a more consistent fantasy contributor. With the lack of reliable receiving options behind Watkins and Woods, Clay figures to play a big role in this offense in 2016. In leagues this year he is being drafted extremely late, or not at all. His value provides a low risk, high reward option for fantasy owners. Expect his numbers to increase across to board in 2016.

 

Kicker

Dan Carpenter enters 2016 as the Bills kicker, but will likely be on a short leash after last season. He made only 85.2% of his field goal attempts (23-of-27) which ranked him 18th in the league among qualifying kickers. On top of this, he missed a whopping six extra point going 34-of-40 on those attempts. Extra point misses were up league wide after the rule change, but missing six was still a big number last season. Considering the Bills were tied for 23rd in the league in field goal attempts last season at 27, Carpenter will need to convert on as many kicks as he can to hold fantasy value like he did in 2013 and 2014 when he made 90.5% of his total kicks. Carpenter has made 84.8% of his field goal attempts for his career, so a return to last year’s numbers isn’t a given. He is a fringe kicker option going into 2016.

 

Defense

The defense had an offseason to forget. They will be without Marcell Dareus for the first four games after he violated the league’s substance abuse policy, and their first two picks in the draft, Shaw Lawson and Reggie Ragland, will both miss most of if not all of the 2016 season. They have a tough schedule early on, but as the season rolls on it eases up a bit. With defensive minded coach Rex Ryan at the helm, this defense is still in line to make improvements as a whole over last season even with these missing pieces. Once Dareus returns, this defense could be a force to be reckoned with.

 

Fantasy Outlook

The Bills have relevant fantasy pieces this season, headlined by Sammy Watkins and LeSean McCoy. If healthy, both figure to put up top-10 performances at each of their positions, with potential for top-five finishes. Tyrod Taylor and Charles Clay can both be had late, and both have potential to provide a huge return on investment. Taylor is a popular sleeper pick at QB by plenty of fantasy minds, and that sentiment is well deserved given his performance last season.