Sometimes, a blister just ruins your day. I did AL players that were traded last week, hoping that Rich Hill's blister issues would be resolved by the time I got to the NL. They aren't, so Hill won't appear in this column. Instead, we'll look at Matt Moore's efforts to make a contending team worse, Josh Reddick being brought in mostly to relegate Yasiel Puig to the minors, and Matt Kemp being bought by a team that definitely should have sold.

Isn't that an optimistic intro? I was not too impressed with the NL's additions, and did not bother claiming any of them in my NL-only league. Yet I promised a NL deadline piece, so here it is!

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The Fantasy Jury Is Out

Matt Moore (SP, SF)

Moore's 7-8 record, 3.99 ERA, and 20.5% K% are nothing more than streamer numbers in standard mixed leagues. Considering his 4.71 xFIP, I have a hard time recommending him even in that role. Yet a contender decided he would be a worthwhile addition to their roster, so let's see how badly the Giants screwed up.

Moore's pedestrian stats above are the result of some above average luck. His current BABIP against is .276, 10 points below his .286 career mark. His 76.1% LOB% is also above the league average, and his mediocre K% does not offer much hope Moore can sustain it moving forward. His current 10.9% HR/FB seems normal, but hides a couple of troubling trends.

Moore is allowing a lot more airborne baseballs this year, as his FB% has increased from 38.7% last year to 44.2% this season. One way to prevent home runs is to keep the ball on the ground, and Moore is doing the exact opposite so far. His IFFB% has also declined from 13.9% to 8.2% relative to last season, so all of the fly balls are also traveling farther than they once did. San Francisco's ballpark suppresses power, but it can't work miracles. Moore could be in trouble.

Moore's tolerable K% represents a sharp uptick from last season's low 16.6% rate, but the underlying metrics offer little justification for the improvement. His overall SwStr% is up only slightly, from 9.9% to 10.2%, while his O-Swing% against is actually down a tad. An analysis of Moore's repertoire suggests that last year's numbers may be more representative of his true talent level.

Moore is throwing fewer fastballs (57.2% to 52.9%) in favor of more 2-seamers (6.6% to 10.6%) and knucklecurves (19.1% to 23.8%) so far this season. He has also abandoned his slider, which has trended downward in usage each season since 2013 (19.6% to 13.3% to 4.2% to 0%). The offering has a career 12.1% SwStr%, so the fact that Moore has completely abandoned it reduces his strikeout upside. That's what happens when a pitch that was once one of your best weapons is excluded entirely from the arsenal.

Among pitches that Moore still uses, the changeup's 13.8% SwStr% leads the pack. While acceptable, it is disappointing for a pitch that boasted a 19.3% rate just last season. The change's chase rate (30.2%) isn't special either, so it really isn't a strikeout pitch. Moore's knucklecurve is similar, as its 12.6% SwStr% is fine while its 33.6% chase rate is only average. Moore's heater has a solid 9% SwStr%, but he is using it less often in favor of a 2-seamer that may be responsible for his homer issue (37.8% FB%, 23.5% HR/FB). Overall, Moore lacks the stuff to truly excite fantasy owners.

That fact makes Moore's control problems all the more baffling. While fantasy owners will tolerate shaky control for strikeout upside, Moore lacks that low Zone% offering that ends PAs in a K. I have no idea why he has an 8.5% BB%, but he does. In fantasy, the only thing Moore's repertoire accomplishes is inflating his owners' WHIP. There is no compelling reason to roster him as a result.

Moore does not need to face the DH anymore, and the Giants will probably provide him with a few more wins than Tampa did. Still, Moore is simply not a good pitcher.

Verdict: Chump

 

Josh Reddick (OF, LAD)

There is nothing inherently wrong with a .276/.346/.411 triple slash line. The problem arises when you consider that Reddick is rostered in fantasy for power, and eight dingers thus far are simply not enough to move the needle. The power outage seems to be the result of a lack of fly balls.

Reddick has never boasted elite raw power, owning a career 10.2% HR/FB. He still managed to produce above average power seasons thanks to a healthy 44.7% career FB%. Basically, Reddick hit so many flies that average power produced above average power seasons. This year, his HR/FB (9.8%) is right where we should expect it to be, but his FB% has dropped off to a career worst 35%. The few flies he still hits are also pulled less frequently than they used to be, 18.3% this year to 24.1% career. The power is gone, and I do not see a reason to expect it to return.

Reddick's solid .276 batting average is the best part of his fantasy profile as a result, but I expect that to regress too. His current .300 BABIP is propped up by a high LD% (23.5%, career 20.6%) that Reddick's extensive history suggests he cannot sustain. His grounders are also overperforming their usual BABIP by 12 points, .247 to .235. Reddick projects as a below average BABIP guy moving forward, likely producing a batting average in the .250 range.

I'm also not sure Reddick is assured of playing time for the rest of the year. I do not believe Yasiel Puig is that good, but his reputation could conceivably give him another look in LA this season. Both Andre Ethier and Scott Van Slyke plan to return from the DL before the season is over as well, and I doubt they take Joc Pederson's or Howie Kendrick's slot in the lineup.

If you play in an OBP format, some of the doom and gloom above may not apply to you. Reddick's 6.2% SwStr% is excellent, making it easy to believe in his 13.4% K%. The fact that he almost never strikes out prevents Reddick from completely falling off the map. A 9.8% BB%, despite the fact that pitchers have little reason not to challenge him, should be all the testament you need about the value of Reddick's 26.5% O-Swing%. Still, owners in standard mixed leagues usually require more than a sterling plate discipline profile to justify using the roster spot.

Reddick hit cleanup in five of his first eight games since joining the Dodgers, but his profile is the antithesis of cleanup man. It would not surprise me at all to see Reddick lose his strong lineup position and the counting stats that go with it. He's also allergic to LHP (.173/.244/.173), making him difficult to deploy in leagues with weekly lineup changes while virtually ensuring he loses one PA a night to a LOOGY.

Reddick has five steals this year, not really enough for most fantasy owners to care. He does not figure to produce much in the way of batting average or power either, and may not play everyday once September hits. Sounds like waiver fodder to me.

Verdict: Chump

 

Matt Kemp (OF, ATL)

It is very difficult to leave the San Diego Padres and end up in a worse offensive environment as a result. Nevertheless, Kemp did exactly that when he joined the Braves in an exchange of bad contracts. Nothing in his .257/.285/.477 line stands out for fantasy purposes, except the 24 HR. Power starved fantasy owners are willing to overlook a lot of flaws for 24 HR.

The power is the result of both an increased FB% (35.2% to 39.8%) and an improved HR/FB (14.3% to 17.8%) relative to last season. The increased fly balls are always a great sign, as they are more predictive of a sustainable power breakout than HR/FB. The HR/FB also looks real to me, as he is pulling 23% of his flies this year. That's a much higher rate than he posted last year (14.3%) or over his career (15.5%). This power pace makes Kemp relevant in all leagues, even as a Brave.

His .257 batting average may also have a little bit of upside. Kemp's .286 BABIP may not seem too low, but his career mark is .341. The shift is not the cause of Kemp's BABIP issues, as he is hitting a solid .283 against it (.304 without it) this year. His BABIP will not regress all the way to his career norms because he has lost the footspeed that produced a .255 career BABIP on grounders (.201 this year), but his current .706 BABIP on line drives should drift toward his .754 career mark.

There is something else working in Kemp's favor as well, though it is kind of embarrassing. The Braves have declined to maintain Turner Field in its final season of operation, to the point that the team's players filed a formal grievance through the MLBPA earlier this season. The playing surface remains rough, allowing a new generation to experience the frequent bad hops that announcers tell us were the norm in the 1980s. Fielders usually need to get leather on the ball to be charged with an error, so bad hops become base hits. Kemp figures to benefit as much as any other Brave.

I do not want to overstate Kemp's batting average potential, which is brought down by a subpar line vs. RHP (.238/.266/.426) and terrible plate discipline. Kemp's 23.8% K% is quite high and completely supported by a 14.6% SwStr% two full points higher than last year's mark (12.6%). Most of the spike is outside of the hitting zone (O-Contact% down to 57.4% from 62.8% last year), but I can't give Kemp the benefit of the doubt when he chases four out of every 10 pitches he sees outside of the zone (40.5%). He simply has no idea what a strike looks like.

Those in OBP leagues may want to steer clear of Kemp and his resulting 4.2% BB%, as he swings at way too many bad pitches to improve it. Kemp has been Atlanta's cleanup hitter since arriving from San Diego, but outside of Freddie Freeman the team lacks MLB-caliber batters even in the middle of its order. Kemp's 12 SB last year are exactly 12 more than he has this year, and it is disappointing to see the speed completely dry up like that.

Kemp hits for sustainable power with a batting average that won't kill you, however, and hitting fourth should produce the most counting stats possible in a weak lineup. Kemp's glove is atrocious, but he qualifies as an OF in all formats, the only real defensive question fantasy owners care about. He may have a bloated contract in real life, but he may also be an underappreciated fantasy asset. He gets a Champ tag!

Verdict: Champ

 

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