MMA has one of the best sweats in DFS. Two fighters compete at a time with only one coming out as the winner. It's the best feeling in the world when you are watching the main event of a show and know you need a first round knockout to win the entire tournament.

And nothing feels worse than when you need a first round knockout by Stipe Miocic to win thousands of dollars in a tournament, but when he lands that knockout punch, you realize that you placed 14th because Jacare Souza was too dominant in a previous fight. This was a serious scenario that I had to live through when Miocic won the Heavyweight Championship.

Anyway, Jason and I will be taking a look at the main card for Fight Night 89. We will be keeping track based on picking winners and losers. We will also predict how the fight will be finished, but that will not reflect in the records.

Justin's Record: 3-2

Jason's Record: 2-3 

Without anymore waiting, here are our picks and analysis for the main card at UFC 199.

 

Valerie Letourneau vs Joanne Calderwood

Justin’s Pick

This is an extremely close fight. Calderwood has elite takedown defense and she will be able to dictate where this fight takes place. She will likely keep it standing, which is dangerous, as these fighters combine for eight total wins by knockout in their careers. Letourneau is the better striker, while Calderwood should be able to outwork her in the clinch. Letourneau should be able to land shots passed Calderwood’s shaky striking defense, but he’ll also eat some because of the pace Calderwood works at. Ultimately, Letourneau’s experience against elite fighters, such as Jedrzejczyk and Gadelha, will help her sneak out the decision.

Valerie Letourneau via Unanimous Decision

 

Jason’s Pick

This fight is definitely going to be close. It will almost definitely end up in the judges’ opinion. Joanna “JoJo” Calderwood has decent power, but her ability to control the fight is what gives her a significant edge. Valerie “Trouble” Letourneau does have an edge when it comes to experience, but Calderwood lands more punches per minutes, is more accurate when striking, and has better takedown ability. If this fight goes the distance, which it should, all signs point toward a Calderwood victory.

Joanne Calderwood via Unanimous Decision

 

Olivier Aubin-Mercier vs Thibault Gouti

Justin’s Pick

Aubin-Mercier is the largest favorite on the card and for good reason. He’s a better wrestler than Gouti, and once he gets him to the ground, this fight should be over. Gouti is no slouch himself, but he doesn’t have the grappling skills to keep up with Aubin-Mercier. Gouti was submitted in only 24 seconds in his first fight in the UFC, and Aubin-Mercier has finished six of his seven wins via submission. This will be his seventh finish and third finish in his UFC career.

Olivier Aubin-Mercier via Submission, 2nd Round

 

Jason’s Pick 

I completely agree with this. Olivier “The Quebec Kid” Aubin-Mercier is going to win this fight in a landslide. Thibault “GT” Gouti is not a horrible fighter, as his 11-1 record goes to show, but he will not be able to keep up with OAM’s ground game. As soon as the fight heads to the mat, Gouti will be tapping. Vegas seems to agree, and the consensus is sometimes the best way to go. There is a reason that The Quebec Kid is the most expensive fighter on the board over at DraftKings this Saturday.

Olivier Aubin-Mercier via Submission, 1st Round

 

Steve Bosse vs Sean O'Connell

Justin’s Pick

This fight is going to be a brawl and you won’t want to miss a second of the action. Bosse is 1-1 in his UFC career, and he has yet to make it out of the first minute of a fight. O’Connell is 1-1 in his last two fights, and he also did not make it out of the first minute in either of those fights. Neither fighter is going to try to take the other down, and they should stand and brawl until one of the two fights is knocked out. O’Connell is the much more accurate fighter, but Bosse has heavier hands. Bosse has significantly better striking defense, as well, and O’Connell’s output isn’t going to matter in this fight.

Steve Bosse via KO, 1st Round

 

Jason’s Pick

This will be the most exciting fight of the night. Sean “The Real OC” O’Connell goes into each fight with reckless abandonment, averaging over six significant strikes per minute. He also eats around the same number of significant strikes per minutes, which does not bode well for him against someone with the power of Steve “The Boss” Bosse. O’Connell likely knows this, and he should go into the fight a little bit more on edge than usual. Bosse’s inability to land significant strikes accurately is going to hurt him. This fight will definitely not make it out of the first round, but contrary to Justin’s prediction, O’Connell has the slight edge. He is not as powerful, but he is the better striker.

Sean O’Connell via TKO, 1st Round

 

Donald Cerrone vs Patrick Cote

Justin’s Pick 

This is an interesting matchup. Cerrone is certainly the better overall fighter, but Cote has knockout power and Cerrone is a hittable target. Cote will be looking to get this fight in the clinch and wear down Cerrone, but “Cowboy” should be able to move and use his cardio to out work Cote. Cerrone has also been finding his form, as he has won 9 of his last 10 fights with his only loss coming to Rafael dos Anjos for the title. While Cote has a puncher’s chance, this is Cerrone’s fight to lose.

Donald Cerrone via Unanimous Decision

 

Jason’s Pick

It may not be too exciting, but I am in complete agreement here. While Patrick “The Predator” Cote does have knockout power, it is likely that Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone wins this fight via the opinion of the judges. He has a better ground game, he has better takedowns and takedown defense, he has better striking, and he has better defense. It would take one lucky punch for Cote to win this fight, but that is not a bet I would be willing to take. Cerrone will win this fight.

Donald Cerrone via Unanimous Decision

 

Stephen Thompson vs Rory MacDonald

Justin’s Pick 

This could end up being one of the best fights of the year. Thompson and MacDonald both have good takedown defense and this fight should stay standing for the most part. If this fight does go to the ground, it will likely be MacDonald taking down Thompson. “Wonderboy” is the more dangerous striker, although no one wants to be on the receiving end of a flurry by MacDonald. Thompson has looked outstanding since his loss to Matt Brown, and he recent made quick work of Johny Hendricks. MacDonald will be Thompson’s toughest test yet, but I expect him Thompson to knock him off and certify his shot at the title.

Stephen Thompson via KO, 4th Round

 

Jason’s Pick

A fourth-round knockout is a very bold prediction. Honestly, this fight is a coin toss. Vegas has Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson with a slight edge over Rory “Red King” MacDonald, but it is really too close to call. MacDonald is the better fighter from the ground. Both fighters have solid defense and striking ability. It is likely that this fight stays standing, but that is not necessarily bad news for MacDonald. His defense is going to prove frustrating for “Wonderboy.” If this fight goes the distance, MacDonald has an advantage. If the fight gets to the ground, Thompson could get worn out faster than expected. It is tough to call, but ultimately, the judge’s will call MacDonald’s name.

Rory MacDonald via Split Decision