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Nick Mariano profiles three second basemen who are likely to be fantasy baseball breakouts and sleepers in 2016.
There's not much to say here as far as a fancy intro, as we know why we're here. Let's look at some second basemen who are poised to breakout in 2016. They may not be "breakouts" in the traditional sense of the word, but I believe they are valid players to reach levels that either we haven't seen before or that we aren't preparing ourselves for this year.
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Three Second Basemen Breaking Out in 2016
Schoop is being talked up by many circles as the buzziest MI not named Addison Russell. Power can be difficult to come by out of the middle infield spots, and Schoop has that in abundance. So why haven’t I cared about him before? Well yeah, it’s not all sunshine and rainbows. Many people are hoping he’s about to have a breakout that will resemble the peak years of a certain teammate of his, J.J. Hardy. Let’s dispel that notion right now as the contact rates are way off, but there is high-reward to be had here.
In Schoop’s age-23 season last year, he hit 15 home runs in only 321 plate appearances with a juicy .203 ISO. This was not unprecedented as he hit 16 homers in 481 PAs in 2014, but you didn’t care so much because he didn’t have a full time job and he hit .209 along with that. Last year he mashed those 15 homers but also hit .279! Well, he had our curiosity, but now he has our attention.
So here’s the other side of the coin. He only walked 2.8% of the time while striking out 24.6% of the time. His .329 BABIP is leaps and bounds higher than his .249 figure from 2014. In 2013 at AAA he posted a .290 BABIP. The point is, don’t look at him for a .275 average alongside the bombs. If he can bring his zone contact rate up into at least the mid-eighties as opposed to last year's 80.3% rate (Hardy's career rate is 91.8% for what it's worth) and cut down on the swings out of the zone (it was 44.6% last year, for some perspective, new free-swinging teammate Mark Trumbo's mark last year was 37.4%), then Schoop stands to really grow.
He hits a ton of fly balls with his swing, as his 37.7% fly ball rate mixed with that strength of his can back that 17.4% HR/FB rate. His average fly ball distance was 306.45 feet, good for eighth in the entire league last year. Yup, respect the power. He hit fastballs much better last year according to Fangraphs' pitch values (going from -5.0 to 4.5), and actually improved against all pitches except the curveball.
Schoop is another great late-round flier thanks to his high-risk high-reward combination. If he gives you 20 home runs out of the MI slot then you can stomach the potentially poor average. If you're a micro-manager, he hits righties better than lefties (career .247 vs. RHP and .216 vs. LHP).
On the one hand it feels disingenuous to label him as a “breakout” since that already happened in 2014. On the other hand, his 2015 went so poorly that he practically buried himself below most people’s draft radars. Harrison now has an opportunity to breakout again, as Jung-Ho Kang looks to be sidelined to open the season while he continues his recovery from a broken leg, and if Harrison can open the season hot and plant his flag in the starting lineup then his versatility should mean plenty of playing time.
The hope here is that Harrison isn't being shuffled in and out of the lineup, which really dings a player's productivity even when he does play. Consistent work and building a routine is very helpful. I wanted to include Javier Baez here, but his shuffling will probably be insane compared to what Harrison may have to deal with should he not tear through April and demand everyday play.
Harrison’s average batted ball distance in 2014 was 278.36 feet (148th), and in 2015 it only dropped to 276.20 feet (182nd). His ISO dropped to a paltry .103 after posting .159 in 2013 and .175 in 2014, which certainly makes the wimpy 3.4% HR/FB rate look justified, but in 2013 it was 11.5% and it was 7.7% in 2014.
Harrison still managed to bat .287 so it isn't like he stunk last year. He did look out of sorts on the basepaths, as he stole 10 bases while being caught eight times (he was only caught seven times in 2014 while stealing 18 bags). It isn’t as though all of his woes came by way of playing time turbulence, but if he can get back to around 525 PAs in 2016 then he should sniff a 10/18 type season with 75 runs or so if he holds near the top half of the lineup.
His batting average will be a plus for you, whether it's .285 or .300 (hopefully the latter). Harrison turns 29 in July, so there shouldn’t be any physical dropoff to fear here. Pittsburgh's offense can generate runs, and for now he looks to be penciled in that #2 spot right in front of Andrew McCutchen. That's a decent place to hit, all right.
The post-hype sleeper breakout may very well be coming for Lawrie this year after leaving Oakland’s roomy confines for a much more inviting park to hit in at U.S. Cellular Field. Lawrie’s fly ball distance last year was 290.90 feet, good for 67th best last year, which is certainly higher than most would peg him off the top of their head.
Lawrie’s been buried by most thanks to a downward trajectory ever since coming on the scene with an abbreviated debut season in 2011 with Toronto where he hit nine homers and stole seven bases while hitting .293 in only 171 PAs. He never was able to take things a step forward, and last year he went to Oakland where he finally got 600+ PAs, hitting 16 homers, stealing five bases with a .260 average. The O.co Coliseum is not a fun place to hit for power, coming in at 27th in ESPN’s Park Factor for home runs, and now he finds himself with the White Sox, whose stadium rated out as eighth best for home runs by the same metric.
Lawrie’s year in Oakland was awful. His walk rate dropped and his strikeout rate went through the stratosphere from 17.4% to 23.9%. He sacrificed much of his plate discipline for the long ball, as he pulled the ball more and made harder contact alongside the increase in his chase rate and swinging strikes. Hopefully he left that with the A’s and it was a point of focus to improve this going into 2016.
Steamer gives him 16 homers in only 473 PAs, and if Chicago’s coaches and environment can help Lawrie feel comfortable he could put his tools to great use. Remember, he just turned 26 in January, and if he can learn to square up off-speed offerings then he could churn out a 25 home run campaign to charge into the circle of relevancy again.
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