X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

Daily Fantasy Basketball Strategy: Key Stats to Know for NBA DFS Analysis

With the NFL season in full swing and baseball quickly wrapping up, the NBA will soon be the top daily fantasy sport going six days a week.  Rotoballer will be providing regular advice and strategy geared toward daily fantasy basketball players throughout the 2015-16 NBA season.

With the boom in popularity of all DFS, many new players be diving into daily fantasy basketball for the first time.  If you are new to NBA DFS, or just need a quick refresher, there are certainly stats you will need to know, and others you can tend to avoid for the upcoming season.

Before diving into the statistics themselves, the first thing you should check on in each site you choose to play is the type of scoring system they use as well as the positions that are utilized.  On a site like FanDuel there will be no utility spot, while there is one on DraftKings.  Meanwhile, DraftKings will give you a bonus if a player is able to collect a double-double that you won't see on FanDuel.  Although these scoring and roster differences do not make a huge difference, they can be a deciding factor in how you spend your cap dollars.

 

Usage Rate

The first stat that NBA DFS players should be looking at is usage rate. The formula for usage rate is a fairly complicated (Usage Rate = {[FGA + (FT Att. x 0.44) + (Ast x 0.33) + TO] x 40 x League Pace} divided by (Minutes x Team Pace).  As a daily player you simply need to know that the higher the rate the better chance the player has for a great fantasy game.   The basic premise of usage rate is how much an individual player is involved in his team’s offense, particularly how many times they shoot or make a pass that leads to a shot attempt.

One of the most important distinctions about usage rate is that it does not worry about time on the floor, but rather how much a certain player is being used while on the floor.  Last season Russell Westbrook led the NBA with a usage rate of 38.2 which coincides with the fact the while healthy last year Westbrook was the best DFS player in the game.  Usage rate can help uncover potential DFS studs such as Isaiah Thomas who was actually sixth in the NBA with a usage rate of 31.3 despite only playing 25.8 minutes a game.  This is important, as many new players simply look at minutes per game and can be persuaded by a player who gets over 30 minutes a game despite being used very rarely.

Any usage rate over 30 is elite.  Brook Lopez was 50th in the league at 23.7 per game last year, which gives a good benchmark for what to consider a solid rate.  It is not the only statistic that should be utilized, but it is a great start.  It comes down to this: the more an NBA player has the ball, the more reliably productive they are likely to be in DFS.

 

Fantasy Points Per Minute

Along with usage rate, another statistic rising in popularity is fantasy points per minute.  Much like usage rate, this will give you a much better idea of what a player is doing with his given minutes per night.  While a new fantasy player may see Eric Gordon at 33 minutes per game over a season and assume he is the same player as Tyreke Evans who averaged just one minute more per game.  However, last season Gordon averaged a meager 0.71 FanDuel points per minute, while Evans averaged a much more respectable 0.98.  Also, this average can help project how many points a player could have if given a minutes boost due to injury or game pace.  Consider this one of the staples in your daily research.

 

Over/Under

This stat actually has nothing to do with an individual player, but is all about the two teams meeting up.  The over/under has become a standard unit in nearly every DFS sport, as it shows what odds makers are expecting in terms of scoring.  Even though it does not give a specific tally as to what to expect from a single player (although some individual prop bets can help), a game that has an over/under of 210 is likely to provide more fantasy value than a game with a total of 180 attached to it.  This can be where stacking (the use of multiple players from a single team or matchup) occurs, as a team could provide several players good fantasy value while other games may have no players worth rostering.  Along with over/under it can also be useful to look at the spread. This can help because a team favored by 15 may be more likely to cruise and rest players, while a game with a spread of -1 is more likely to see a team play its top players nearly the entire game.

 

Opponent Defense vs. Position

This last statistic is relatively new, but extremely useful for daily NBA players.  Opponent defense vs. position is a statistic that comes into play when looking at a site such as FanDuel where you will need to roster each position and do not have the flexibility of a DraftKings lineup.  If a team is in the bottom third of league against a given position, that is likely to mean a boost in production for that position player on the opposing side.

Most importantly, DvP gives an overall barometer of what you can expect on a given night because it shows a overview of both ends of the floor.  For example, if a team is middle-of-the-pack against opposing centers defensively but gives up the most blocks and rebounds to opposing big men, one can see a boost for a particular night.  Be sure when looking at DvP to not only use season long statistics but also focus in on how the team has been doing over the past month or even two weeks.

 

NBA & Fantasy Basketball Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-11" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]

POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Macklin Celebrini

Has Multi-Point Outing Friday
Clayton Keller

Grabs Four Points in Friday's Victory
Nick Schmaltz

Celebrates Second Career Hat Trick Versus Sharks
Dylan Strome

Erupts for Four Points Against Wild
Dylan Larkin

Leads Red Wings to Victory Friday
Zach Bogosian

Hurt on Friday
Nikita Kucherov

Struck by Illness
Jauan Jennings

Good to Go in Week 7
George Kittle

Expected to Play With No Limitations in Week 7
Brendan Donovan

Undergoes Sports Hernia Surgery
George Springer

Exits Game 5 Early After HBP on his Knee
Jackson Chourio

Back in Game 4 Lineup Against Dodgers
Deebo Samuel Sr.

Questionable for Week 7
Kyler Murray

Officially Questionable for Week 7
George Kittle

Likely Playing in Week 7
Alexander Romanov

to Be a Game-Time Call Saturday
Nils Lundkvist

Nursing Lower-Body Injury
Justin Danforth

Expected to Miss More Than One Month
Brock Bowers

Considered Doubtful for Week 7
Jonathan Huberdeau

Set for Season Debut Saturday
Brock Purdy

Ruled Out Again in Week 7
Liam O'Brien

Makes Season Debut Friday
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Clears Concussion Protocol, Will be Active on Sunday
Pierre-Luc Dubois

Out Against Wild
Lucas Raymond

to Remain Out Friday
CeeDee Lamb

Off the Injury Report, Will Return in Week 7
Anze Kopitar

Out Week-to-Week
Josh Jacobs

Listed as Questionable For Week 7
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Has Bone Spurs Removed From his Elbow
Carson Wentz

Named Vikings' Starting Quarterback in Week 7
Brendan Allen

Set For UFC Vancouver Main Event
Reinier de Ridder

Reinier De Ridder A Favorite At UFC Vancouver
Mike Malott

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Puka Nacua

Rams "Very Optimistic" Puka Nacua Will Return After Week 8 Bye
Kevin Holland

Set For UFC Vancouver Co-Main Event
Aiemann Zahabi

Looks For His Seventh Consecutive Win
D'Andre Swift

Bears "Hopeful" That D'Andre Swift Will Play in Week 7
Bradley Beal

Set to Make Clippers Debut in Preseason Finale
Marlon Vera

Returns At UFC Vancouver
VJ Edgecombe

Set to Return for Preseason Finale
Calvin Ridley

Ruled Out for Sunday
Jeremy Sochan

Won't Play in Season Opener
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Looks To Extend Her Win Streak
AJ Green

Bucks Agree to Contract Extension
Manon Fiorot

Looks To Bounce Back
Stefon Diggs

Questionable for Sunday
Aoriqileng

Aori Aoriqileng Looks To Rebound
Cody Gibson

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Jaylen Brown

Considered Day-to-Day with Hamstring Tightness
Kyle Nelson

Set For Lightweight Bout
Matt Frevola

Set To Open Up UFC Vancouver Main Card
Jaden Ivey

Will Miss Four Weeks After Knee Surgery
Paul George

Expected to Miss Season Opener
Chuba Hubbard

Will Return in Week 7
Joel Embiid

Set to Make Preseason Debut on Friday
Terry McLaurin

Ruled Out for Week 7
Puka Nacua

Inactive for Week 7
Garrett Wilson

Will Not Play in Week 7, Could Return in Week 8?
Chase Brown

Goes for Over 100 Rushing Yards in Win Over Steelers
Mark Stone

Stays Hot With Hat Trick of Assists
Evgeni Malkin

Continues Prolific Start
Shane Pinto

Pots Sixth Goal of the Campaign
Cole Caufield

Pushes Canadiens Past Predators
Shayne Gostisbehere

Delivers Three Assists in Thursday's Win
Matthew Schaefer

Makes History With Another Assist
Jaylen Warren

Highly Efficient on the Ground Thursday, Adds Value as Receiver
CFB

Curt Cignetti Signs Eight-Year, $11.6 Million Extension With Indiana
Carlos Rodón

Carlos Rodon Unlikely to Be Ready for Opening Day After Elbow Surgery
Anthony Santander

Removed From ALCS Roster With Back Injury
Jackson Chourio

Aggravates Hamstring, Pulled Early in Game 3 of NLCS
Aaron Judge

Will Not Need Elbow Surgery
Anthony Volpe

Won't be Ready for Start of Next Season
Gerrit Cole

Won't be Ready for Opening Day Next Year
Milwaukee Bucks

Chris Livingston Waived by the Bucks
Keegan Murray

Nique Clifford Shines in Keegan Murray's Absence
Cooper Flagg

Continues to Start at Point Guard
Ron Harper Jr.

Earns a Two-Way Deal with the Celtics
Charlotte Hornets

Spencer Dinwiddie Waived by the Hornets
Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sterling Shepard's Stock Rising for Buccaneers
CFB

Jermod McCoy Officially Out for Alabama Matchup
CFB

Jam Miller Questionable to Face Tennessee
Jaden Ivey

Considered Day-to-Day
Josh Hart

Making Progress
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Busy in Preseason Debut
Keegan Murray

Lands Five-Year, $140 Million Extension
Domantas Sabonis

Sustains Hamstring Injury Wednesday
Jaylen Brown

"Fine" Following Wednesday's Early Exit
CFB

Arizona State QB Sam Leavitt Probable For Saturday
Kevon Looney

Slated to be Sidelined With Knee Injury
Anthony Volpe

Undergoes Left-Shoulder Surgery
CFB

Jayden Gibson No Longer with Oklahoma Program
Emmanuel Clase

to be Banished for Life After Gambling Allegations?
Alex Bregman

Plans to Opt Out of Contract With Red Sox
Christopher Bell

Sits Third in Points After Quiet Third-Place Finish
Chase Briscoe

Passes Denny Hamlin at the Start, but Hamlin Gets Him in the End
Joey Logano

Falling Out of Playoff Picture Despite Other Contenders' Crashes
Ryan Blaney

Stage 1 Crash Puts Ryan Blaney in Severe Playoff Trouble
Denny Hamlin

Wins at Las Vegas and Will Compete for the 2025 Cup Series Title
Kyle Larson

Dominates at Las Vegas but Ends Up Second
Chase Elliott

Struggles to Gain A Solid Finish at Las Vegas After Pit-Road Penalty
William Byron

Strong Run Ends In A Wreck at Las Vegas
CFB

Sam Leavitt Viewed as Day-to-Day with Undisclosed Injury
Anthony Santander

Scratched From Game 2 of ALCS With Back Tightness
San Diego Padres

Mike Shildt Retires as a Manager
Mateusz Gamrot

Suffers Second-Round Submission Loss
Charles Oliveira

Gets Back In The Win Column
Montel Jackson

Drops Decision
Deiveson Figueiredo

Gets Split-Decision Victory
Vicente Luque

Outclassed
Vicente Luque

Joel Alvarez Outclasses Vicente Luque
Jhonata Diniz

Suffers Second-Round TKO Loss
Mario Pinto

Remains Undefeated
CFB

Matt Rhule Denying Interest in Penn State Head Coaching Job
CFB

Le'Veon Moss Not Believed to Have Suffered Season-Ending Injury
Ricardo Ramos

Suffers First-Round Submission Loss
CFB

Bill Belichick Says he's Committed to North Carolina
Tiger Woods

Undergoes Back Surgery
CFB

UAB Fires Head Coach Trent Dilfer After 2.5 Seasons In Birmingham
CFB

Penn State Fires Head Coach James Franklin After 10.5 Seasons
CFB

Penn State QB Drew Allar Will Miss The Rest Of 2025 Season With Ankle Injury
Brandon Woodruff

Will Not be on NLCS Roster
Max Scherzer

Added to ALCS Roster
Bryan Woo

Makes ALCS Roster
Bo Bichette

Won't Make ALCS Roster
Christopher Bell

the Favorite to Win at Las Vegas
Denny Hamlin

on the Pole at Las Vegas
Joey Logano

Can Joey Logano Get Lucky in Las Vegas Again?
William Byron

has the Fastest Car in Practice at Las Vegas
Ty Gibbs

Speed of Ty Gibbs a Good Sign for Toyota at Las Vegas
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Should Contend at Las Vegas
Ross Chastain

Scrapes Wall in Practice But Qualifies 15th at Las Vegas
Chris Buescher

Looking for Improvement at Las Vegas
Austin Cindric

It Has Been Hit or Miss for Austin Cindric at Las Vegas

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP