X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

The Case Against Drafting PIT QB Ben Roethlisberger and Why He Will Regress

The Evolution of Ben Roethlisberger Into a Yearly QB1

1,498 yards.

At the end of the 2013 season, Antonio Brown finished the year with an astounding near 1500 yard season that came out almost entirely out of nowhere, finishing second to Josh Gordon's even more unanticipated year. It would come as the byproduct of the second best season of Ben Roethlisberger's career, earning him his 3rd top 8 fantasy finish amongst QBs. After two years of the Steelers seeming to decline, they were immediately on the rise with the future looking bright as Le'Veon Bell was expected to start 2014 healthy (he began his rookie year with a lisfranc for those that don't recall) and an offensive line that lost Maurkice Pouncey in the first game of the year was about to have him back, completely healthy.

Ben Roethlisberger's 2014 would go down as the best year of his career. Finally finding a good home in the Todd Haley offense, Big Ben paid dividends to fantasy owners by putting together a 4952 yard season (just over 600 yards more than his previous best) and 32 touchdowns (which matched his career high in 2007). Those numbers also helped put together a league leading 1698 receiving yards for Antonio Brown and 854 receiving yards for Le'Veon Bell, which would lead all RBs. Even Heath Miller would provide strong support in this offense, posting the 3rd highest yardage output of his career at 761, good enough for 9th best amongst TEs. All this together, resulted in Ben Roethlisberger having the first top 5 finish of his career.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

Editor’s Note: If you’re looking for a new, awesome, highly customizable and free option for year-round commissioner & dynasty leagues, something more capable than Yahoo, better looking than CBS, and built from the ground up with fantasy football in mind, play free fantasy football with our friends at Fleaflicker. Sign up your league on Fleaflicker, and get a Full Season Premium Subscription for FREE.

 

How Can Ben Roethlisberger Remain a Top 5 Fantasy QB?

In order to put together an even better year than last year, Roethlisberger would have to break his career records again. In order to do that, it means one of three scenarios have to occur:

  1. Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell again lead the league in receiving yardage for their positions.
  2. Martavis Bryant, Markus Wheaton and Heath Miller are able to make up the difference for however many yards Antonio Brown and Le'Veon aren't able to match from last year.
  3. Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell beat or match their own career years, while Martavis Bryant, Markus Wheaton, and Heath Miller's combined contribution increases.

Let's not beat around the bush, assuming a progression from both Wheaton and Bryant to come out in the same year while Miller, Brown, and Bell manage to repeat their years is an incredibly low possibility. Even expecting Wheaton and Bryant to progress enough to make up for whatever yards Brown, Bell, and Miller fail to live to up to doesn't seem like the smart bet unless you're riding on the hype that a young project who was seldom used last year is ready to become a significant part of the offense in his second year. Which means, assuming Brown, Bell, and Miller only lose 200 yards each (which is a loss of about 12 yards per game), that Bryant is primed for an 1100 yardage year while Wheaton maintains his 644 yard contribution.

Even expecting Brown and Bell to lead the league again seems farfetched. Only 6 receivers since 1970 have had multiple 1500+ yard seasons (with Jerry Rice, Marvin Harrison, and Andre Johnson being the only ones with more than two) and in that same time period only 6 running backs have ever had more than one 700 receiving yardage season, with Marshall Faulk being the only one to have multiple 800 yardage years.

All this also ignores the two major outliers of last year in Big Ben's career, the back-to-back 6 touchdown games that occurred in the middle of the season against the Indianapolis Colts and Baltimore Ravens. So on top of career years for major offensive contributors, you had a two game stretch of possessed football. If we treated those two games as outliers and replaced them with Roethlisberger's averages for 2014, Ben would have finished last year with 4673 yards and 22 TDs, making him QB13.

So far, i've focussed mainly on yardage. That might seem strange being that Quarterback value is much more heavily weighted towards touchdowns, but being able to move the offense is one of the most significant parts of getting touchdowns. Last year, with the highest yardage total of Ben Roethlisberger's career (while also having the runner up to the rushing title playing with him), he was only able to match his career high 32 TDs. He even had multiple games with 0 passing touchdowns and had 8 total games with 1 or less.

Ben Roethlisberger comes off the board as QB6 at the time of writing this. The Pittsburgh Steelers are a great team, but are they great enough to beat volume-regression? Is Big Ben great enough to take those 12 touchdowns he had in those 2 games and spread them amongst an entire year? In order for that to even happen, what are the chances that one of the three scenarios listed above are fulfilled?

There's no way Ben Roethlisberger falls off the map. That's nearly impossible. The offense is just too good and I'm not going to pretend that's the case I'm making. However, Roethlisberger is coming off a career year at 32, with an offense that housed the leagues leading receiver and second best rusher. Buying at his 5th-6th round ADP means buying into the best year of his career being matched or beaten.

I'd rather sell.

 

NFL & Fantasy Football Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-0" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

NBA

Timberwolves Interested in Reunion With Bones Hyland
NBA

Kylor Kelley Joins Lakers
Colin Castleton

Links Up With Magic
Brock Bowers

Pete Carroll Classifies Brock Bowers Among His Best Players Ever
De'Von Achane

Lingering Calf Injury Poses Concerns for De'Von Achane
Adam Thielen

Vikings and Panthers Struggling to Finalize Adam Thielen Trade
Malik Monk

Kings "Not Actively Engaged" in Trade Discussions Involving Malik Monk
P.J. Washington

Mavs Likely to Offer P.J. Washington a Contract Extension
Kenny Pickett

Raiders Acquire Kenny Pickett From Browns
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Give Trey Hendrickson a Raise
Amari Cooper

Signs One-Year Deal With Raiders
NHL

Jan Rutta Lands in Switzerland
Kirby Dach

Skates on Monday
COL

Tyson Barrie Retires From NHL
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Back in Toronto's Lineup
Joe Mixon

to Start Season on Non-Football Injury List
Jaylen Wright

Not Expected to Play in Week 1
Jakobi Meyers

Requests Trade
Jauan Jennings

Not Practicing on Monday, has Avoided IR for Now
Matthew Stafford

Taking 11-On-11 Reps on Monday
Zhang Mingyang

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Johnny Walker

Gets Back In The Win Column
Brian Ortega

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Aljamain Sterling

Proves Too Much For Brian Ortega
Chris Sale

Penciled in to Start on Saturday
Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Suffers Unanimous-Decision Loss
Sergei Pavlovich

Wins Decision At UFC Shanghai
Terry McLaurin

Signs Three-Year Extension with Commanders
Kevin Borjas

Drops Decision At UFC Shanghai
Sumudaerji

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Kiefer Crosbie

Still Winless In The UFC
Taiyilake Nueraji

Gets His First UFC Win
Ryan Blaney

Earns his Second Daytona Cup Series Win
Tyler Reddick

Locks Into the 2025 Playoffs Despite Underwhelming Daytona Performance
Erik Jones

Misses the 2025 Playoffs Despite Top-Five Run at Daytona
Justin Haley

Best Performance of 2025 Falls Short of Victory at Daytona
Chase Burns

To Throw Bullpen on Tuesday
Kyle Larson

Enters Playoffs As Co-Points Leader
Alex Bowman

Advances to Playoffs Despite Crashing at Daytona
Cole Custer

Finally Shows Signs of Life at Daytona
Daniel Suarez

Lame-Duck Daniel Suarez Delivers Clutch Second-Place Finish
Logan Gilbert

Punches Out 13 in Victory
Randy Rodríguez

Randy Rodriguez Battling Arm Soreness
Marcus Semien

Out 4-6 Weeks, Could Miss Rest of Season
Ranger Suárez

Ranger Suarez Strikes Out 11 in Win
Cal Raleigh

Sets Catcher Home Run Record
Yordan Alvarez

Likely to Return on Tuesday
Jacob deGrom

to Start on Monday
Kyle Tucker

Homers Twice in Win
Chris Sale

Likely to Return Next Weekend
Brian Robinson Jr.

to be RB2
Najee Harris

to be Ready Week 1?
De'Von Achane

Making Good Progress
Jaylen Wright

Considered "Week-to-Week"
Marcus Semien

Placed on Injured List
Jackson Merrill

Heads to 10-Day Injured List
Jordan Love

Says He'll Play in Week 1
Brice Turang

Absent on Saturday, "Touch-and-Go" With Wrist Injury
Chase Elliott

Despite Being Winless at Daytona, Chase Elliott is Probably the Best DFS Option
Ryan Blaney

Will Likely Lead a Lot at Daytona
Kyle Larson

a Poor DFS Option at Daytona
Christopher Bell

Consistent Enough to Consider for DFS
Chris Buescher

Now Must Win His Way Into Playoffs
Ryan Preece

Being One of the Slowest-Starting Fords Makes Ryan Preece a Strong DFS Option
Ross Chastain

Leads a Lot on Drafting Tracks
Daniel Suarez

Now in Desperation Mode With his Career on the Line
Chase Briscoe

Tendency to Finish Better Than He Runs May Reap Dividends at Daytona
Lamar Jackson

Should Practice on Monday
Carson Hocevar

Hard to Forecast Since He's Rarely Given 100 Percent at Daytona
Michael McDowell

has a Solid Drafting Record
AJ Allmendinger

A.J. Allmendinger Arguably Starting Too Well for Place-Differential Points
Austin Dillon

Will Likely Be Too Conservative for DFS Consideration
Matt Chapman

Activated and Starting on Saturday
Moses Moody

Warriors Not Interested in Trading Moses Moody
Kevin Durant

Rockets Expected to Agree on New Contract
Trey Murphy III

Warriors, Spurs Interested in Trey Murphy III
Zack Wheeler

to Undergo Season-Ending Surgery
Yoán Moncada

Yoan Moncada Hits a Pair of Home Runs on Friday
Willy Adames

Belts Two Solo Home Runs on Friday
CAR

Luke Kunin Joins Panthers on One-Year Deal
Auston Matthews

Says His Health is "Good" Before Start of Season
Roope Hintz

"Feeling Good" Ahead of New Season
Matthew Tkachuk

Recovering From Surgery
Marco Rossi

Wild Re-Sign Marco Rossi to Three-Year Deal
Bubba Chandler

Records Four-Inning Save in Debut
Walker Buehler

Officially Moving to Bullpen
NBA

Malik Beasley Now Drawing Interest from Teams
Brian Robinson Jr.

Traded to 49ers
Zhang Mingyang

Set For UFC Shanghai Main Event
Johnny Walker

In Dire Need Of Victory
Brian Ortega

An Underdog At UFC Shanghai
Aljamain Sterling

Set For UFC Shanghai Co-Main Event
Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Sergei Pavlovich

A Favorite At UFC Shanghai
Kevin Borjas

Set for UFC Shanghai Main-Card Bout
Sumudaerji

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Kiefer Crosbie

Set To Open Up UFC Shanghai Main Card
Taiyilake Nueraji

Set For His UFC Debut
Connor Ingram

Clears Player Assistance Program
Frank Nazar

Inks Seven-Year Extension With Blackhawks
COL

Victor Olofsson Signs One-Year Deal With Avalanche
Tee Higgins

has Injury Scare on Thursday
Dallas Cowboys

Micah Parsons Expected to Play in Week 1
Dru Smith

Aims to Be Healthy for Training Camp
Jayson Tatum

Provides Injury Update
RJ Barrett

Considered a Trade Candidate
Golden State Warriors

Warriors "Remain Very Confident" About Signing Al Horford
Jahmir Young

Agrees to Deal With Heat
Hideki Matsuyama

Looks to Bounce Back at Tour Championship
Corey Conners

Looking to Reverse Struggles at East Lake
Cameron Young

Stays Hot Ahead of Tour Championship
Harris English

Aims for Complete Game at East Lake
Sepp Straka

Back in Action at East Lake
Ben Griffin

a Strong Value Play at East Lake
Rory McIlroy

Chasing Another Win at East Lake
Patrick Cantlay

Finishes Tied for 30th at BMW Championship
Ludvig Aberg

Finishes Tied For Seventh at BMW Championship
Collin Morikawa

Finishes Tied for 33rd at BMW Championship
Keegan Bradley

Finishes Tied for 17th at BMW Championship
Robert MacIntyre

Finishes Second at BMW Championship
J.J. Spaun

Finishes Tied for 23rd at BMW Championship
Scottie Scheffler

Wins BMW Championship
Harry Hall

Hot at the Right Time for Tour Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound at Tour Championship
Jacob Bridgeman

has One Weakness Heading to Atlanta
Nikola Vučević

Nikola Vucevic Not Expecting to Be Moved Before the Season

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP