RADIO
The July 31st non-waiver trade deadline has come and gone, resulting in a good deal of moves that make little sense.
Why did the Mets spend solid prospects on a one year rental that is showing all of the signs of a lucky season? Why is Jose Reyes a Colorado Rockie? Why did the Texas Rangers - a sub .500 team - act as buyers?
Real world moves do not need to make sense to impact our game, so lets have a look at the fantasy prospects of the above.
Yoenis Cespedes (OF, NYM)
Most Mets fans absolutely adore this move. I am a Mets fan, but I disagree despite not being enough of a prospect hound to know exactly what was given up. Cespedes has excellent numbers to date - a .293/.324/.505 triple slash line with 18 HR, merely eight away from a career-high in dingers. If that is all you look at, the move makes sense. However, if you dig any deeper and look into any underlying stats, red flags begin to emerge.
Over the last two seasons, Cespedes posted batting averages of .240 and .260, respectively. He did hit .292 in his rookie campaign, but that was before the many holes in his game were well known. Now, his .293 mark does not fit in with his established career norm. Cespedes is running an elevated BABIP of .330 compared to a .304 career mark, suggesting that luck may be a factor. His line drive rate of 20.3% does not seem too fluky at first, but his career norm is just 18.7%. Since liners post the highest BABIPs of any batted ball type by far, that many more of them could easily inflate a batting average. If his career is any indication, Cespedes will not be able to keep this pace up, driving his average down. Likewise, his current IFFB%, or pop up rate, stands at just 8.3% despite a 12.8% career rate. Pop ups are useless, so more of them will be bad when the number normalizes.
Cespedes' complete lack of plate discipline also threatens his new found ability to hit for average. This season, Cespedes is striking out 19.8% of the time - a few ticks better than major league average. However, he chases pitches outside the zone 39.5% of the time - the worst mark in a career that consistently struggles in this area. He whiffs on pitches entirely 10.6% of the time, 1% more often than average. He has also posted a pedestrian 78.3% contact rate so far. Do these sound like the underlying numbers of an above average strikeout rate? No, many more Ks should be expected going forward.
The power growth is also fraudulent, with a career high 15% HR/FB (last season 9.6%, career 13%) masking a fly ball rate that has plummeted to 35.8%. Real power growth is rooted in more balls in the air, and elite sluggers have fly ball rates in excess of 40% regularly. Some of the fly balls will start staying in the yard, and his power output will suffer when it does.
Finally, he never walks (4.5% BB rate) and is apparently slated for regular duty in CF. Cespedes has all of 77 career games there, and the defensive stats suggest that it has not gone smoothly. The expected struggles at the new position could seep into his offensive game. This possibility, combined with the Mets Malaise that hits established sluggers such as Jason Bay, Mo Vaughn, and Bobby Bonilla as soon as they put on the orange and blue, make me very pessimistic about Cespedes' Mets career.
Verdict: Chump
Jose Reyes (SS, COL)
From a current Met to a former one, Reyes has posted a .279/.317/.375 triple slash line with four bombs and 18 swipes in 2015. The 18 bags against just three CS reveal that he still knows how to steal a base, but does not run as often as he did in his youth. SBs should still be expected going forward, but he won't put up Dee Gordon or Billy Hamilton numbers.
His current .309 BABIP seems right for a player with plus speed, but his IFFB% is ludicrously high at 22.9% (career 12.5%). That number should come down going forward. Reyes' line drive rate is slightly elevated at 22.3%, but he managed 22.6% last season so he may be able to sustain it. Coors Field also inflates both BABIP and HR/FB (currently 4.2%, career 5.9%) to a ridiculous degree, so career highs in both categories could be in the cards for the new Colorado SS.
The BABIP will have plenty of opportunities to help Reyes as he almost never strikes out (12.4% K). With a whiff rate this season of just 7.1% and Denver's altitude mitigating the stuff of his opponents half of the time, this trend should continue. That gives Reyes significant batting average upside, though with his wheels a higher walk rate than 5.6% would be appreciated.
Despite switch hitting, owners in daily transaction leagues should note that Reyes is still elite vs. RHP (.297/.335/.397) while struggling against southpaws (.229/.272/.313). The Rockies have also been hitting him second in the order rather than his customary lead off spot. This is likely for the best, as it allows him to bat with runners on more often than if the pitcher preceded him in the order. The second slot records plenty of PA, and he is still in a position to be driven in by the likes of Nolan Arenado and Carlos Gonzalez. His RBI and R totals will take a hit because no one scores like Toronto can, but if you have to leave that offensive juggernaut, Colorado is a good place to cushion the fall.
The only caveat to Reyes' 2015 fantasy production is the possibility of a waiver trade, as a win now player with a bloated salary does not make much sense for the Rockies in their current position in the standings. Colorado likely wants to flip him for prospects however, and they may have a hard time doing that if everyone has to clear waivers. They will probably wait until the offseason, allowing Reyes to close 2015 strong by playing in the altitude.
Verdict: Champ
Cole Hamels (SP, TEX)
Going from a bad team (recent results notwithstanding) to a slightly less bad team, Hamels probably wanted to be in a pennant race and he still isn't. His 6-7 record with a 3.76 ERA seems mediocre, but his 3.19 xFIP suggests that better times could be ahead. The discrepancy lies in an elevated 12.3% HR/FB, meaning that he is allowing big flies at a more frequent rate than expected. Sadly, his new stadium will do nothing to alleviate this problem, but his career best fly ball rate of 30.9% (career 36.3%) might going forward. If he had an average HR/FB to date, he would be having a career best season in the power department. As it stands, significant regression to the mean can be expected.
Hamels' 9.44 K/9 are his best since his rookie season of 2006, so fantasy owners can't complain about strikeouts. 2.64 BB/9 are a little higher than ideal, but Hamels' best strikeout seasons are consistently paired with his worst walk rates. Most fantasy owners make that trade every time. Looking at pitch selection, there is one glaring trend: Hamels has cut down his fastball usage from 54.7% last year to 32.8% this, with every single one of his other pitches - as well as a new 2-seamer - picking up the slack. This might be the single best change in pitch selection history.
Against Hamels' fastball, opponents have a triple slash line of .312/.384/.582. It allows line drives 35.3% of the time, around 67% more often than overall league average. The offering's 28.4% fly ball rate is way too high when paired with a dreadful 30.3% HR/FB. It does not generate Ks with a 6.2% whiff rate, and it also posts the lowest ground ball percentage in Hamels' repertoire at 36.2% (everything else is at least 50%). I'm not usually a huge advocate of a ground ball approach, but it is necessary to pitch in both of the hitter's stadiums Hamels has called home. Hamels has the weapons to do it, but his heat is not among them. Hamels is apparently aware of the problem and will hopefully throw the heater less and less at the season wears on, even if it does have career best velocity at 92.1 mph.
Hamels' new 2-seamer is only marginally better (.291/.340/.440, 32.9% line drive rate, 5.8% SwStr%), but the rest of Hamels' stuff remains elite. The change is the strikeout pitch, offering a 25.7% SwStr% and 49.6% chase rate. It is possible the weaker fastballs are necessary for the changeup's success, but if they could be replaced by Hamels' cutter (10.8% SwStr% but below average 25.2% chase rate), Hamels might be in Cy Young discussions again. Truly elite strikeout rates generally require a second put away pitch, and the cutter - while solid - is not elite as a second best K option. Hamels can maintain his current Ks, but is unlikely to pick it up in the category.
Finally, Hamels' remaining luck stats look neutral. A slightly above average 74% strand rate seems right for a pitcher with a slightly above average strikeout rate, and his current .295 BABIP is actually 10 points higher than his career norm. Wins could remain hard to come by on a .500 team at best, but it is an upgrade from what he left. HR issues could continue, but the ground ball approach should help mitigate them. Overall, there is still some gas (though no fastballs) left in Hamels' left arm.
Verdict: Champ
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