Champ or Chump: Teixeira, Puig, and the ToddFather

Rick Lucks analyzes Mark Teixeira, Yasiel Puig and Todd Frazier to see who will have continued success in the 2015 season and which players will see a regression for the rest of the year.

The hardest thing about a column like this is not having all of the relevant data. I called Robinson Cano a Chump because his fantasy stats were bad and the underlying metrics weren't any better, but now it has come out that he had a bizarre stomach thing. There is no stat for bizarre stomach things.

Likewise, I called Dallas Keuchel an imposter because his strikeout rate of 5.59/9 does not lend itself to any kind of success. He proved me wrong by proving me right - his K/9 is now up to 7.92 on the season, allowing him to maintain his success. I win?

Still, it is fun to take a weekly crack at predicting the inherently unpredictable and this week is no exception. Today, we look at the poster boy for why the shift works, the most overrated outfielder in the history of baseball, and the HR Derby's 2015 champion. Lets begin.

Mark Teixeira (1B, NYY)

No one doubted he would still have some power if he was healthy, but .252/.359/.545 with 24 bombs has taken everyone by surprise. His .237 BABIP is still pathetic, but that is not likely to change unless the shift gets outlawed. Instead, the tolerable batting average is the result of Barry Bonds-style plate discipline. Always the owner of a good eye, Teixeira has increased his walk rate from 11.4% to 13.4% this year while lowering his Ks from 21.5% to 16.4%. That last number is around 5% better than league average, and he is doing it with elite power! Underlying metrics support the growth, as his O-Swing% is down to 24.9% from 28.1% while his Z-Swing% has increased from 62.7% to 68.8%. His SwStr% is also down to 8.5%. He knows exactly what his pitch is, and won't miss it when it comes.

Teixeira's idea of not missing it is hitting it out of the yard, which he has done on a whopping 23% of his flies this season. That is high even for a proven power hitter in a hitter's park, but some of the power growth is real. Last season, Teixeira's power was down not due to a slumping HR/FB but a decreased flyball rate of 37.3%. This year he is lifting the ball again with a 40.5% flyball rate, just a tick below his career average of 40.7%. While production per fly may be due for slight regression, he should continue to hit more flies - leading to more production overall. There will still be plenty of "Tex Messages" for WFAN announcer John Sterling to call this season.

Surprisingly, Teixeira's resurgence is not at all a product of homer happy Yankee Stadium. He has 13 home bombs this season and 11 on the road - no more at home than can be explained by a few more home games to date and an increased comfort level. He has struggled against lefties this season (.213 average, 5 HR), but he hits for enough power against them that he is not a complete zero against southpaws. Overall, "you're on the Mark, Teixeira!"

Verdict: Champ

Yasiel Puig (OF, LAD)

I guess I kind of spoiled the ending by calling him the most overrated outfielder in the history of the game in the intro, but I still need to prove it. Puig's current triple slash line of .265/.345/.431 impresses no one that took him in the Top 30 on Draft Day, yet there was no reason to expect anything else. In 640 PAs last season, Puig hit just 16 HR - outfielders that get drafted that early need to hit 30 or else steal 50 bags. This season, Puig has five bombs - not on pace for 20 even if you factor in time missed due to injury. His career HR/FB hovers around the league average 10%, and he does not elevate the ball at an impressive clip (career 33% flyball rate). He might explode for 25 some season, but there seem to be many that think 40+ are hiding in that bat. They aren't - if you want elite power look elsewhere.

He does have plus legs, but has shown no signs of using them to effectively steal bases. In his MLB career, Puig has gone 23 for 40 in SB attempts - good for a success rate of 57.5%. Most sabermetricians argue that 70-75% success rates are necessary to make stealing bases worthwhile, and you can bet that the Dodgers front office will settle for nothing less. As a result, Puig's SB attempts are down to three this year, and only one was successful. If you want elite SBs, look elsewhere.

The last skill in the fantasy relevant repertoire (we don't care about defense) is batting average, and Puig has historically put up strong numbers here. This, however, can be explained by ludicrous BABIPs. In his debut season, Puig managed a BABIP of .383, while last season's fell to .356. League average hovers around .300, and Puig has a strike against him already for being a poor line drive hitter, the batted ball type that posts the highest BABIP by far. Indeed, last year his liner rate was just 14.8%, roughly 30% worse than an average MLB performance. This year he has a more normal 20.7% rate, but they're not great in terms of BABIP - just .552 while league average is 100 points higher. It is not a shock to see Puig's BABIP fail to reach historic heights this season, as it stands at .319. Puig's BABIP is derived entirely from beating out groundballs (.367 BABIP this year), and he can't be that good at that because no one is. Sure he can run, but faster than Dee Gordon? Billy Hamilton? Rickey Henderson in his prime? Probably not. Owners that drafted Puig expecting elite production were betting on his BABIP maintaining his batting average, but no hitter in the history of the game has actually done that to Puig's extent.

Puig's average is down for another reason as well: plate discipline. He is chasing more balls out of the zone this season (30.2% last year, 34.8% this), causing his walk rate to drop (10.5% to 9.9%). Bizarrely, swinging at bad pitches is actively hindering his ability to hit strikes. His Z-Contact% is down from a strong 84.3% in 2014 to 77.7% this year. His Ks are up slightly this year (19.1% to 20.2%), but with a declining contact% (74.7% to 72.3%) and rising SwStr% (11.9% to 14.5%), he can be expected to strikeout much more often going forward.

Then there are the intangibles - the facts that he alienates his teammates by being "moody" and annoys ownership by being late to practices. He cannot be relied upon to hustle, and his head is often elsewhere when he is in the field. Carl Crawford was just recently activated from the DL, and Mattingly currently plans to sit him on the bench because Andre Ethier earned everyday ABs in his absence. Crawford makes too much money to sit long-term though, even for the Dodgers. When it is all on the line in September, don't be surprised if the Dodgers bench Puig as they did in the playoffs last year.

Verdict: Chump

Todd Frazier (3B, CIN)

The HR Derby's champion has an impressive .279/.352/.574 triple slash line in 2015, buoyed by 26 HR and nine swipes (4 CS). He stole 20 last season, and 17 in 90 Triple-A games back in 2011, so there is no reason he cannot continue to steal a modest number of bases. His current BABIP of .274 is sustainable if not due to increase, so his modestly plus average also figures to hang around. The only real change in his profile is a spike in ISO, which is up to .295 when his previous career best was .225 in 465 2012 PAs.

His 18.4% HR/FB is high, but last year he had a 17% mark, it has been above average every season of his major league career, and he plays in a ballpark that helps him hit bombs. I think he keeps that rate moving forward. More importantly, he is elevating the ball much more frequently - from 37.1% a year ago to 47.6% now. That is an elite slugger's flyball rate, and as long as Frazier has it the ISO will remain high.

The increased tendency to hit balls in the air may have something to do with a conscious change of approach at the plate, as his plate discipline numbers are wonky. His O-Swing% is up to 36.2% from 32.5%, fueling his overall swing rate to a 3.5 point jump (48% to 51.5%). Despite this, he is making more contact - 74.7% last year to 78.6% this. While his walk rate is down as a result (7.9% to 6.6%), his Ks have fallen too (21.1% to 17%). This has helped him hit for a higher average and perhaps explains why he is suddenly so much better at hitting flyballs.

It should be pointed out that he does almost all of his damage at home (.318/.378/.688 vs. .242/.289/.468 on the road), but there is nothing wrong with taking advantage of a favorable home park. It would stink if he got traded, but he is affordable next year so I do not think the Reds will move him at the deadline. The only other negative I can come up with is the jinx that sometimes follows winning the HR Derby, and if a superstition is the worst strike against you things are going pretty well.

Verdict: Champ

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