RADIO
Another week, another round of ballplayers to approach with a critical eye. The Astros' twin aces have a lot to do with their current position in the standings, but is it sustainable? First, however, lets look at the Reds shortstop that is having a season no one saw coming.
Zack Cozart, SS, CIN
Cozart has been around for a while now, but he has never been more than a glove with everyday PAs for fantasy purposes - until this year. This year, he boasts a triple slash line (AVG/OBP/SLG) of .297/.329/.541, with four HR. Shortstop is always a weak position, so fantasy owners have noticed the uptick. Has something changed, or is he a mere flash in the pan?
The answer is flash in the pan, as Cozart is riding a wave of good fortune. His HR/FB stands at a very high 17.4%, on a par with the top sluggers in the league. His career mark, however, is only 7.2%, while last year saw an abysmal 2.5% figure. Clearly, Cozart does not have the power to sustain his current pace - which happens to already match his HR output of a season ago. He could crack double digits, but don't expect him to surpass his career high of 15 home runs.
His .541 slugging percentage is not the result of merely fluky homeruns, but fluky doubles as well. Cozart is currently hitting .818 on line drives - well north of his career .679 mark - but more notable is a power explosion. His ISO on line drives is a ludicrous .455, more than double his career mark for line drives (.218). This will regress in a big way, causing nearly all of his extra base power to evaporate. When combined with a BABIP on groundballs (.296) more fitting of an elite speed burner than a slowish shortstop (career BABIP of .244 on groundballs), Cozart will soon be a source of PAs and nothing more again. Ride him while he is hot if you wish, but remember that he is nothing more than an...
Verdict: Imposter
Collin McHugh, SP, HOU
This former Mets farmhand has really come into his own, following up an 11-9, 2.73 ERA effort with a hot start to this season: 3-0 with a 2.92 ERA. Advanced metrics like the Astro, as he has a FIP of 1.70 and a xFIP of 2.67, both of which are actually better than his sterling ERA. He was certainly the beneficiary of good fortune last season, posting a .259 BABIP against despite pitching with the worst defense in all of baseball behind him. That BABIP has overcorrected this year though, rising to .342 despite Houston getting off to a much better defensive start (5th according to Fangraphs). His slightly elevated 76.1% strand rate a year ago is also down to 72.4% so far this season, a figure nearly right on the league average. While many worried in the offseason that luck would catch up to McHugh, he has been able to survive the expected regression and still put up strong numbers.
McHugh is yet to allow a HR this year (obviously he will eventually), but this should be mitigated somewhat by his increased groundball tendencies. In every season of his MLB career, he has managed to increase his groundball rate, most recently from 42.1% last year to 54.8% this year. Considering that homering is easy anywhere except dead center in Minute Maid Park, this is a positive development. McHugh has also managed to cut his liner rate, from a very high 24.1% last year to 20.5% so far this campaign. In theory, it is possible that this number will regress to be more like his career norm, hurting McHugh in the process. However, his BABIP against is already high at .342, meaning that he has had bad luck on grounders and flies. If this bad fortune also regresses, an increased line drive rate would likely even out with it, allowing McHugh to continue his current level of production. If he manages to allow a more normal amount (league average 21%) of line drives, McHugh's luck should actually improve going forward - a scary proposition considering his already excellent production.
Despite his reputation as a soft tosser, McHugh actually backs up his performance with well above average stuff, according to Pitch F/X data. Using 2014 numbers to avoid the variance possible in a small sample size, McHugh's slider is nothing short of elite - 2.33 runs above average per 100 thrown. He also throws it a bunch, making the offering 44% of the time this year. McHugh also features a quality curve ball (1.23 runs above average per 100 thrown), thrown 22% of the time. Together, breaking balls account for 66% of McHugh's repertoire, with the remainder being a weak change (-0.49) thrown 5% of the time and a fastball thrown the rest of the time (-0.40). The secondary pitches aren't great, but they're also not horrible - they are adequate for an occasional change of pace from the breaking stuff. This unconventional approach to pitching keeps hitters guessing, allowing McHugh to rack up Ks at an above average clip - 8.39/9 IP, in fact. This is slightly lower than last year's 9.14 K/9, but he has cut down the walks as well (2.39 BB/9 to 1.46 BB/9). Overall, there is no reason to call McHugh anything but the...
Verdict: Real Deal
Dallas Keuchel, SP, HOU
Keuchel has been even better than his Astros teammate McHugh, posting a 2-0 record with a fantastic 0.62 ERA so far in 2015. His ERA will obviously not be that low for the entire year, but his FIP of 2.98 and xFIP of 3.48 indicate that he is pitching well. His .165 BABIP against is very low, however, and while Houston's defense is performing better there is really no reason why they should be. Houston's offseason was all about adding offense, not defense, an approach exemplified by the acquisition of SS Jed Lowrie. Lowrie is a power threat at the plate, but was worth -10 Defensive Runs Saved last season and -2 this year before going on the DL with a thumb injury. Defensive metrics also hate Jose Altuve and the various first basemen on Houston's roster. Keuchel is an extreme groundball pitcher - in fact the most extreme in the league - and sometimes grounders find holes, especially in porous defenses. Regression seems likely for Keuchel, and it might hurt.
Somebody in the Houston front office needs to explain to Keuchel what a strikeout is, because he does not seem to know. While his K rate last season was a below average 6.57/9, it is even lower this year: 5.59 K/9. Unlike McHugh, who sacrificed some Ks to cut his walk rate, Keuchel's walks are actually up, 2.16/9 to 3.41/9. That is simply too many walks against not enough strikeouts, a recipe for disaster if his BABIP normalizes. More specifically, that recipe calls for far too many baserunners. Baserunners have not hurt Keuchel yet this year due to a 91.7% strand rate. League average hovers between 70% and 72%, and you need to be a strikeout guy to have any hope of sustaining a higher number. Keuchel is the opposite of a strikeout guy, and could actually expect to post a below average strand rate as a result. That would lead to an ugly ERA.
Also unlike McHugh, Keuchel does not feature outstanding stuff according to Pitch F/X data. Keuchel's best pitch is a 2 seamer worth 1.71 runs above average per 100 thrown, and it is thrown 39% of the time. A changeup is his next best, worth 0.85 and used 12% of the time. A league average cutter (0.12) is used 7.1% of the time, and rounds out positive values in Keuchel's repertoire. His second most used pitch is also his worst, a 4 seamer with no more velocity than the 2 seamer that moves (both average 89 mph) worth -1.05 per 100 thrown and used 24.5% of the time. While McHugh has two breaking balls that are plus, Keuchel really has only one great pitch - that makes strikeouts difficult. There is no sane reason why Keuchel should be able to do what he is doing, and when he eventually allows a HR (zero thus far) there will likely be a few runners on due to walks or seeing eye singles. As an ace, Keuchel is almost certainly an...
Verdict: Imposter
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