RADIO
For Long-Term Success, Don't Overreact Early in the Season
Perhaps more than at any other point in the season, fantasy owners are prone to overreaction in April. Everybody wants to get off to a good start, and correctly identifying breakouts and busts as early as possible can go a long way toward determining who brings home the hardware. Of course, that’s easier said than done. It’s not an exact science, either. Knowing when various metrics tend to stabilize is a great start, but it can hard to see the forest for the trees after yet another night of 0-for-4’s up and down your roster.
Press the panic button too early, and you risk giving up a valuable asset. Sit tight for too long, though, and you may lose out on this year’s Corey Kluber or Michael Brantley. This can often seem like a “damned if you do, damned if you don’t” situation. Fortunately for you, through over a decade of playing this weird and wonderful game of ours, I’ve learned a thing or two about when to hold ‘em and when to fold ‘em. Here are some general tips on how to navigate the waters.
1. Keep doing the work
You spent a lot of time preparing for your draft. You read a bunch of articles here, you pored over FanGraphs pages, you compiled spreadsheets. Then the actual games started. Did you continue to do your homework? It’s surprising how many owners quickly fall into a rut, simply monitoring their own players’ status and skimming the waiver wire without taking the time to keep tabs on other rosters. Leagues are won with moves made on the margins. Every little bit helps, and you can only maximize the value of your roster if you keep putting in the effort to be one step ahead of the competition.
2. Anchoring is your enemy
Anchoring is a cognitive bias that causes us to rely too heavily on the first piece of information we receive when making decisions. It’s a tactic often used by savvy negotiators to get the best possible deal. In the context of fantasy baseball, this bias may manifest itself in over-reliance on either preseason projections or a hot start. Anchoring is extremely difficult to avoid entirely, but simply being aware of the phenomenon can help keep it from clouding your thought process as much as it otherwise would.
3. Accept the principle of sunk cost
Once the season starts, it no longer matters what you paid to own a player. A first-round pick and a 20th rounder who have the same stats have provided the same value, or lack thereof, to your team. Obviously the former is more likely to deliver more value over the long haul, but it’s possible that what might seem like a slump is just the beginning of a lost season. Sometimes the bottom falls out, or a guy tries to play through an undisclosed injury, or the luck dragons just pick on a certain player all season. You can’t afford to keep trotting an albatross out there just because you shelled out for him in March. Winning this game is as much about not compounding your errors as it is about success.
4. Keep your emotions in check
We’ve all been there enough times to know how frustrating it is when a cornerstone of your team endures a seemingly endless stretch of poor play. It’s important to keep that from causing you to make a rash roster decision. You don’t want to be the guy who punted on George Springer right before he hit homers in eight straight games. Smart owners will notice a name brand who’s struggling and kick the tires, offering pennies on the dollar in the hopes of catching you in a low moment. It’s often in your best interest to shoot these proposals down, no matter how enticing it may sound to rid yourself of this underachieving headache.
5. Know your limit for each player on your roster
At all times, you should have a good idea of just how much rope you’re willing to give to every player on your team. Certain players deserve more leeway than others, of course, but this will also help you avoid emotions clouding your judgment. Use all the resources at your disposal to determine how long you’re willing to wait for a struggling player to rebound. This could include prior performance, scouting and injury reports, prospect pedigree, and combing through their peripherals.
6. Resist the siren song of streaks – sometimes
Some stats, like strikeout rate, normalize quickly. Others take years to do so. Educated guesswork is the name of the game, and the time you spent researching will pay off here. Look for signs that a player off to a strong start might actually have made tangible improvements. Naturally, youth is a major factor. Did this player perform well in the minors? Is there a significant change in his batted ball or plate discipline profile? Did he add a new pitch or change his selection? Not every April hero is riding high on a crazy BABIP or strand rate.
7. Understand that you will occasionally be wrong no matter what
Inevitably, you will make mistakes. Maybe you hold too long on the star player who just never gets untracked as he loses all semblance of trade value, and you miss out on the next big thing. Perhaps you cut bait too quickly and cut or deal a stud for a flash in the pan. No matter how good you are, baseball is simply too unpredictable to expect getting through a season without any missteps or regrets. Hell, I won all three of my leagues last year and made plenty of boneheaded moves along the way.
As the old adage goes, you can’t win a title in April, but you can certainly lose one. Tread carefully, but don’t be afraid to make a bold move. Trust your instincts if you’ve put in the time to develop them. Above all, remember that it’s a game. Have fun.
