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Leading up to the 2015 NFL Season, Rotoballer's fantasy football expert Frankie Soler will be looking at the offseason's biggest winners and losers. In the second installment of the series, we take a look at newly acquired Jaguars Tight End Julius Thomas. The previous post in the series on Drew Brees can be found here.
Of all the players that have changed teams, there is one in particular that will result in the reader being showered with easiest analysis imaginable. That player is tight end Julius Thomas. Formerly of the Denver Broncos, Thomas opted to sign with the Jacksonville Jaguars this off-season in a move that left many fantasy owners responding with “welp, it’s been real." Listen, you don’t need me to tell you how much better Peyton Manning of the Broncos is than Blake Bortles of the Jaguars but I’m going to do it anyway. Peyton Manning threw for 4,747 yards, 39 touchdowns and 15 interceptions last year while rookie Blake Bortles threw for just 2,908 yards, 11 TDs and 17 interceptions. The numbers are astoundingly different, which is the simplest piece of information that you need to know to realize Julius Thomas won’t be the same player in Jacksonville. That being said, there have been some polarizing reactions to his draft value in 2015.
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Julius Thomas has posted ridiculous touchdown numbers from the tight end position over the last two seasons reeling in a whopping 24. The yards took a hit in 2014 but chances are you were satisfied with Thomas as your fantasy tight end for most of last season. Thomas has also been the subject of criticism regarding his health but given that you were already taking that into account while he was in Denver, we’re going to bypass that and just focus on him switching teams. A good portion of the reactions to Thomas moving to Jacksonville falls into two camps:
- Julius Thomas is such a talented player that he will be a steal at tight end because everyone will be afraid to draft him and he'll plummet through each round.
- I am not drafting Julius Thomas whatsoever because the only reason he was good in Denver was because of Peyton Manning, and Blake Bortles is not Peyton Manning.
I completely understand both of those reactions but when it comes down to it, I believe the proper mindset is somewhere in the middle.
Tight end has become a very fluky position in terms of who is worthy of being a weekly starter after the elite. Julius Thomas was being drafted last year as the number two or three tight end behind Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski. After that, tight ends four through seven and eight through twelve were split into very similar tiers. With Thomas leaving Denver for Jacksonville, I think the proper placement for him is in that eight to twelve tier.
He’s no longer a surefire starter but he’s not a player to avoid at all costs either. He’s a talented tight end who can be a big time playmaker for Blake Bortles and the Jaguars offense but the production isn’t going to be nearly as consistent as it was in Denver. In short, he’s a fantasy off-season loser as he went from one of the best offenses in the NFL to one of the worst but I think people need to reel themselves in from the drastic reactions they’ve been having. No longer a superstar, Julius Thomas is simply just another tight end to lump in with the rest. Nothing more, nothing less. I wouldn't draft him before someone like Dwayne Allen, when that third tier of tight ends hits.
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