Week 10 NFL Recap: Injuries, Breakout Performers & Game by Game Analysis

 

The Big Boys Delivered (Except Running Backs)

With the exception of a few outliers, Week 10 of the NFL season saw a lot of fantasy superstars living up to their expectations. Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers both showed why quarterback is no longer as deep as some thought it was, while Jordy Nelson and Dez Bryant proved it’s perfectly fine to take a wide receiver in the second round.

I’m not going to rehash my tired argument against the classic strategy of loading up on running backs early, but I should point out that the running back side of things was again a mystery this week. With the exception of Marshawn Lynch and Jamaal Charles, figuring out which running backs will perform well has become a dart-throwing exercise. C.J. Anderson? Justin Forsett? Terrance West? Granted, one of those is injury-related, but you get the idea.

The point is: winning the running back battle this year has little to do with whom you drafted and a whole lot to do with how you've managed your waiver claims. Maybe that’s the direction fantasy football is heading in with how pass happy the league has become-- running back is turning into a game of waiver wire pickups.

 

Notable Week 10 Injuries

On the injury front, there were some crushing ones this week, with Carson Palmer being lost for the season to a torn ACL and Ronnie Hillman suffering an ankle injury. It's an absolute shame for Palmer when you consider how the Cardinals have been performing this year. Sentiment aside though, this has a greater real-life impact than it does for fantasy. The Arizona wide receivers have been a roulette wheel, anyway. Sure, there’s less upside with Drew Stanton under center, but how confident were you trotting out Michael Floyd or Larry Fitzgerald anyway? And Andre Ellington is having himself a solid year independent of quarterback play, so that shouldn’t change either.

The real question is what to make of it if you happened to scoop up Palmer to replace an injured Nick Foles or a struggling Cam Newton. I don’t think Stanton has much fantasy value outside of two-quarterback leagues, but he’ll be worth keeping an eye on as the year progresses. Palmer had been developing into a top-10 play before his injury, so it’s not insane to think Stanton could be top 15-level, given the weapons around him.

The other injury to note is Ronnie Hillman's. The aforementioned C.J. Anderson stepped up and had himself a nice game, but Montee Ball is expected back next week, so this could get messy. Ball had struggled while he was in the lineup, so it’s possible Anderson challenges him for the starting gig until Hillman is healthy, but Ball is still the guy I’d rather own. That said, I can’t imagine starting either guy in Week 11 unless I absolutely had to. Any running back playing with Peyton Manning has serious value since they rarely come off the field, so I suppose it’s worth the risk, but it might take a week to figure out which guy is going to get a majority of the work.

There were a few other random injuries outside of the big two, but nothing overly serious, so we can save those for their individual matchups. Hopefully you’ve managed your team well enough to this point that you have enough depth to overcome whatever is ailing your squad.

 

Week 10 Recap - Impact Players & Game-by-Game Analysis

Browns @ Bengals

How about them fightin’ Cleveland Browns? Anyone who predicted the Browns would be in first place in November would have been forced into medical evaluation. Yet here we are with “America’s Sweetheart” Brian Hoyer leading the Browns atop the AFC North. The strangest part about this team being this good might be that their fantasy relevance has faded fast. Andrew Hawkins had developed into a sneaky PPR or three-WR play, but unfortunately he missed this game. Jordan Cameron can’t stay healthy, and the running back situation is a mess. Ben Tate, Terrance West, and Isaiah Crowell are all getting work, and each got into the endzone in this game. I don’t even think any of them is worth starting though, since this is likely to change to week to week. The old “hot hand” approach is always a pain to manage for fantasy purposes, so I’m not even sure all three are must-owns at this point. I understand how feeble running back is at this point, so if you have to roll with Terrance West or Ben Tate, so be it, but I’m avoiding it.

On the Bengals side of things, terrible Andy Dalton showed up in this game in unbelievable fashion. Dalton netted you a fabulous negative score this week, which hurt every other Bengals player. We might be looking at the beginning of the end of the Andy Dalton era, which I can’t say surprises me. I never really bought into the Andy Dalton hype, and after Thursday night’s abomination, I’m actually selling high on A.J. Green. I don’t trust Dalton to get him the ball as consistently as he has in the past, and with Mohamed Sanu coming into his own, I can’t say I can rely on Green to put up big numbers on a week to week basis. Perhaps I’m overreacting to one terrible game, so let’s see what happens when the Bengals head to New Orleans next week.

 

Steelers @ Jets

This game went just like everyone expected huh? After two weeks of Ben Roethlisberger torching defenses with 12 touchdowns, he was treated to what was described as the worst secondary in the last 10 years of the NFL. Somehow, the Jets defense showed up in this game, completely neutralizing the Steelers offense. There were some funky plays in this game that decided the outcome, like Antonio Brown fumbling, a should-be fumble from Michael Vick, and a tipped ball for an interception from Roethlisberger in the redzone. It wasn’t all terrible for the Steelers, as Antonio Brown showed that even in a bad game, he can still have a decent PPR day. The bigger surprise was Martavis Bryant having another huge day with 143 yards and a touchdown. This touchdown pace has to be unsustainable right? Either way, Bryant has quickly become a WR3/FLEX play, and I don’t think it’s even up for debate anymore.

In a game that seemed highly one-sided despite only being decided by seven points, the Jets didn’t really provide much fantasy goodness. Chris Ivory continues to outperform Chris Johnson, and Michael Vick showed flashes of the old Michael Vick, but beyond that, there wasn’t much else to see.  Vick is an upgrade from Geno Smith, which is helpful for both Eric Decker and Percy Harvin, it just didn’t show up this week. I’m sure the Jets will take the win, but that doesn’t help us fantasy owners.

 

Dolphins @ Lions

The biggest story heading into this matchup was the return of Megatron, Calvin Johnson. Everyone expected a big game in his first game back, and that’s exactly what we got with his 113 yards and a touchdown. It’s safe to say he’s back to normal now. I’m not quite ready to declare him as the number one receiver in fantasy just yet, given how guys like Antonio Brown, Demaryius Thomas, and Jordy Nelson have performed, but it’s at least close. Outside of Megatron, this game didn’t really feature much else. I will say, however, that both of these defenses are underrated. The Lions are more or less an every-week start, and the Dolphins are a solid plug-and-play option.

Reggie Bush left this game to an ankle injury, but does it even matter anymore? In fantasy terms, the Detroit run game has been pretty much useless. Joique Bell has been one the most disappointing trendy sleepers of the year and Bush just can’t stay on the field. I’m ready to drop all of these guys if my team can survive it. Lamar Miller was limited for the Dolphins due to a shoulder injury, but he'll still going be a top 15-back once fully healthy.

 

Titans @ Ravens

We can’t actually still be talking about Bishop Sankey in Week 10, can we? Really? People are still buying into this? I’m done with this guy. Shonn Greene was the initial starter on this team, which neutralized the Sankey hype, but now that Sankey is finally getting the bulk of the workload, he’s not doing anything with it. Sankey is as droppable as anyone you’ll see in this week’s recap. I’m sure there will be someone starting him in a league, but it ain’t gonna be me. Delanie Walker suffered a concussion in this game, so monitor this situation closely until more information becomes available. Concussions are tricky and nearly impossible to predict.

The big performer for the Ravens was Justin Forsett, who totaled 112 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Forsett has somehow become a top-15 back in 2014. Who knew? The real dilemma on this offense is what to make of Steve Smith versus Torrey Smith. Torrey outperformed Steve once again this week, much to the chagrin of Steve Smith believers. At the beginning of the year I stated Torrey was the wide receiver I preferred out of the two and that Steve would have minimal value due to the Baltimore offense being unable to support two fantasy relevant players.  I was initially wrong about which player would have value but right about the team’s inability to provide us with two guys. Now that the roles appear to be switching, I guess I’m right again? It’s hard to gauge what exactly this offense is other than a Justin Forsett offense.

 

Cowboys vs Jaguars (Across the Pond)

Despite the mystery surrounding Tony Romo’s health, the Cowboys thumped the Jaguars 31-17 on the heels of Dez Bryant's monstrous 158-yard two-touchdown day. I was shocked the Cowboys let Romo play this week after injuring his back, but I guess once owner Jerry Jones realized his team actually had a shot at making the playoffs, it was all hands on deck. Dez is a clear-cut top-five receiver as long as Romo is out there, and DeMarco Murray continues to exceed expectations. His health still scares me, especially when you consider how many touches he’s getting each week. The Cowboys are on a bye in Week 11, so it’d be difficult to trade him right now, but it’s time to cash in your chips. You’re basically playing with house money at this point-- don’t get greedy, let someone else put it all on red.

Is Denard Robinson actually a top-15 back the rest of the way? The answer is, somehow, yes. He continues to excel on a team that couldn't run the ball at all prior to Robinson’s emergence, so there’s little reason to expect that to change going forward. The Jacksonville receivers, however, continue the revolving door, with Cecil Shorts racking up 119 yards this week. This week it was Shorts, next week it might be Allen Hurns or Marqise Lee. The Jags will continue to spread the ball around too much to predict the stars from week to week.

 

49ers @ Saints

San Francisco started this game thumping the Saints before clinching it in overtime with a field goal. Frank “Goonies Never Say Die” Gore finally had himself a big game, with 81 yards and a touchdown on 23 attempts. I have a feeling we’re looking at a big second half for Gore, which is a huge plus for a team that will need every win they can get if they hope to make the playoffs. The 49ers and Saints both shuffle receivers around like crazy, to the point where it’s impossible to guess which guy is going to go off. Michael Crabtree is one of the most disappointing guys on the season, and Anquan Boldin is still a proven veteran commodity.

For the Saints, Marques Colston is pretty much droppable, while Brandin Cooks gets a healthy amount of targets. Cooks is a decent WR3, but the red zone targets are going to tight end Jimmy Graham no matter what Cooks does. The real takeaway from this game is that we’re most likely looking at the last big Mark Ingram day. Sell, sell, sell… if you can get anything for him. It’s expected one or both of Khiry Robinson and Pierre Thomas will return this week, spreading out the New Orleans backfield substantially. If you’ve been riding out this Ingram train, congratulations, but it’s about to come to a screeching hault.

 

Chiefs @ Bills

I've been a member of the Fred Jackson fan club for years now; though I was excited to hear he was returning to action already, I tempered my expectations as I assumed they would ease him back into action. That was exactly the case, as Freddy only got 10 touches for 49 yards. That’s totally fine;-- we want Jackson healthy, and with C.J. Spiller out for the year, Jackson is a solid RB2 going forward in any format. I know there will be detractors who argue that Anthony Dixon and Bryce Brown will still get a sizeable workload, but it kind of doesn’t matter. Jackson has been a usable RB2 for years with C.J. Spiller getting a ton of work, so I’m not worried about Dixon or Brown whatsoever. Sammy Watkins played hurt here, which hindered the offense as a whole. The Bills have been winning when Watkins has a big day, so he’s a high-end WR3/low-end WR2.

There's not much to discuss as far as the Chiefs are concerned; Jamaal Charles is good (hard-hitting fantasy analysis there); Travis Kelce is a decent enough TE1; none of the wide receivers is even worth rostering.

 

Falcons @ Buccaneers

Yowza, this division is bad. Can you believe the Atlanta Falcons are just a game out of first place? At any rate, this offense finally put it back together with Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Steven Jackson all having solid fantasy days. I was a big proponent of a huge bounce-back year for the entire Atlanta team, and their second half schedule is favorable. Roddy and Jackson are both legitimate buy-low candidates with Ryan a sneaky high-end QB2 for the second half.

Tampa Bay turned back to Josh McCown for whatever reason, which apparently meant good things for Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson. I don’t really buy into McCown being an upgrade over Mike Glennon, so it’s going to take more than one week for me to get excited about Evans and Jackson. The backfield is a much more intriguing situation at this point, with Charles Sims being inserted into his first NFL game, yet only getting eight carries. Despite the minimal touches, that was actually the high for the team, which is reassuring for Sims. Doug Martin was inactive in this game, but it doesn’t really matter-- he’s done. Sims is the back I like best going forward, with Bobby Rainey close behind.

 

Broncos @ Raiders

Raise your hand if you knew the second the final whistle blew in Denver’s big loss to New England last week it was bad news for the Oakland Raiders? I think we're all in agreement here that Denver’s big day was expected. Every relevant Bronco got in on the action, with two touchdowns apiece for Emmanuel Sanders and Julius Thomas; Demaryius Thomas racked up 108 yards on 11 receptions. Peyton Manning had five touchdowns, proving once again he was absolutely worth a first-round pick. What else can you say about the Broncos? They're all fantastic fantasy players, which is exactly why whichever running back starts for this team will have value. It might take a week to see who gets the first crack at the starting gig, but everyone else on this team is a stud and a must-start. Wes Welker, though, seems to be droppable. He just doesn’t have it this year, which is a shame for a team that scores so frequently.

So, the Oakland Raiders. They’re a professional football team in the NFL. That’s a true statement, and it’s about as fantasy-relevant as this team gets. Actually, I do want to point out one player in particular. Mychal Rivera. Who? Exactly. The Raiders tight end has put together three solid games in a row. Tight end is always a tricky position with the upper-tier guys being way better than everyone else. If you’re running with a struggling Heath Miller or Vernon Davis, Rivera is worth a look. Mychal Rivera, Raider. It’s been that kind of year, folks.

 

Giants @ Seahawks

This game started out strong for the Giants, but it took a horrible turn in the fourth quarter. The Giants offense is hurting for Rashad Jennings, as Andre Williams has been pretty bad. He scored a touchdown in this game, but that’s about as good as it gets. You know who is actually good though? Odell Beckham Jr. Yikes, this guy can play. Seven receptions for 108 yards and just a freak of an athlete. He’s easily a top-20 wide receiver going forward, and he's going to be a hot commodity next year. I’m actually curious to see if he can overtake Victor Cruz as the Giants number one receiver. Don’t get me wrong, Cruz is really good, but with Eli Manning struggling to find a secondary receiver since Hakeem Nicks fell off the face of the Earth, it wouldn't shock me if he uses Cruz’s absence to solidify Beckham as his go-to guy.

As for the Seahawks, Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson literally ran all over the Giants defense. Lynch had 140 yards with four touchdowns while Wilson had 107 on the ground. Four touchdowns for a running back is just absurd, but the bigger takeaway is that the Seahawks are going to run Lynch as much as they can before he ultimately departs for another team at the end of the season. It’ll be interesting to see if he ends up on a good offense, as he can clearly still carry a football team… watch him end up on the Raiders and ruin everything.

 

Rams @ Cardinals

We pretty much touched on the entire Cardinals offense in discussing the Carson Palmer injury, so it’s probably best to just transition right to the Rams, except there isn't even much to discuss with them. Granted, this game was also close until the fourth quarter. Jared Cook was the sole fantasy contributor with 84 yards and a touchdown despite having just two receptions. Tre Mason continues to lead the way on the ground for the Rams, as evidenced by his 14 carries despite not doing much with them. That said, a starting running back in the NFL has value, or so the saying goes. The passing game on this team is pretty much moot. Let’s move right along, shall we?

 

Bears @ Packers

The Sunday night showdown wasn't much of a showdown, with the Packers annihilating the Bears 55-14. The Bears offense is starting to scare me, with several more disappointing performances from pretty much everyone except Brandon Marshall. Unfortunately, Marshall hurt his other ankle in this game, but there isn’t much information beyond that. I think I’m ready to sell all my Bears, with the caveat of wanting to get full value. I don’t want to trade just for the sake of trading-- I want something useful in return. I do think Matt Forte is still a top-five running back going forward, but if I could package him with Martavis Bryant for Le'veon Bell and Odell Beckham Jr, I’m doing that deal.

The Packers, on the other hand, are just a fantasy juggernaut. Everyone got in on the action this week, particularly Jordy Nelson with his 152 yards. Aaron Rodgers did his best Ben Roethlisberger impression, throwing six touchdowns to five different receivers. I could talk about how amazing Rodgers, Jordy and Randall Cobb are, but that’s not going to help anyone, so let’s turn our attention to Eddie Lacy. Lacy totaled 118 yards between his rushing and receiving, which is a big day for him. He's a low-end RB1 at this point, but hey, that’s still really good considering how terrible RBs have been this year. Take what you can get from him and be happy.

 

With studs performing in droves this week, some more than others, it was a fun week to be a fantasy owner if you had the right guys. My last thought this week will be not to make silly panic moves this late into the season. Between two different leagues, I was able to claim Fred Jackson, Steven Jackson and Frank Gore off waivers. I know Fred was hurt and Jackson and Gore have struggled, but don’t bail on guys who still have value. There comes a point where you simply need the roster space for an injury or bye week fill-in, but as a whole, I’m sticking it out with guys I know can still put up numbers. In all three of the cases I mentioned, each previous owner was making a panic move, and now I’ll be the beneficiary. Keep an eye out for those worried owners-- one owner’s mistake is another owner’s treasure.