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Today's best MLB strikeout prop bets and pitcher K props for Monday, May 4. Thunder Dan Palyo's expert MLB player prop picks, betting odds, and advanced stat analysis to help you win.
After a 4-1 record on my K prop picks yesterday, I'm ready to run it back today on a magnificent Monday slate of MLB games. Or, I'm ready to be humbled again... but I'm going to remain aggressive with the strikeout-over props today, as we have some very talented pitchers in good spots.
I'll offer up a few of my top picks here today, but you'll need to grab a premium pass to see all five of my favorite K prop wagers. Our top MLB writers are posting their favorite props on Discord daily, so gain additional access to those picks with a premium RotoBaller membership.
In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Monday, May 4, 2026. Odds will change during the day, so lock in those bets as early as possible and always shop for the best number across multiple sportsbooks or prediction markets! If you love betting on baseball, check out our premium betting tools here at RotoBaller and sign up to access all our daily premium content!
High-Confidence Strikeout Picks
Cam Schlittler OVER 6.5 strikeouts (-118 Novig)
We kick things off with one of the most impressive young pitchers in baseball this season. Schlittler comes into today's matchup against the Orioles with a 31.4% K% that is backed by a slate-high 15.5% SwStr%. And he's had fantastic control, too, with a miniscule 3.8% BB% through his first seven starts.
Cam Schlittler, 99mph Sinker and 98mph Four Seamer, Individual Pitches + Overlay pic.twitter.com/u6LBqsp7xh
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 29, 2026
Schlittler's metrics are superior across the board, and he's taken his strikeout ability to the next level this year with that elite control. He throws hard and is getting great movement on his sinker and cutter, which is making it incredibly hard for hitters to track the ball out of his hand.
The Orioles are sitting at a 22.6% K% over the last two weeks and have struggled with strikeouts all season up to this point. Schlittler has at least seven strikeouts in five of his seven starts, and I think he's positioned quite well to get it done here again today as the Yankees go for a four-game sweep of the Orioles.
Randy Vasquez OVER 3.5 strikeouts (-120 Novig)
Vasquez has been one of the biggest breakouts of the year among the ranks of starting pitchers. He was completely ordinary last year, but added velocity to his four-seamer this year and retooled his secondary pitches to best suit his arsenal.
The results have been a huge improvement in his ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts. He has a very healthy 24.8% K% and a 12.4% SwStr% through his first six starts and has four or more strikeouts in all but one of those outings.
This line is so low it's pretty insulting, especially when you consider the Giants have a pathetic offense that is striking out 24.4% of the time over the last two weeks against right-handed pitching with only a 77 wRC+.
Vasquez should be good for four strikeouts tonight, and I'll definitely be running him up the ladder another notch or two in case he really gets into his bag and starts piling up the Ks. He has three outings with six or more strikeouts this year!
Value Plays and "Under" Targets
