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Thunder Dan Palyo locks in his top NBA player props and best bets for Wednesday, 3/18/26. Capitalize on commission-free odds and market edges with today's top Novig picks.
Prop betting in the NBA is getting a bit more challenging in the waning months of the season, with most slates lately having a majority of games with double-digit spreads. We have to worry about blowouts on a nightly basis, funky rotations from tanking teams, and injury situations changing mid-day. But there are a few very compelling matchups tonight, and I'll be looking for where we can find an edge on some props and game bets.
If you're reading this, then I am going to assume that you are an NBA bettor. Today's picks will all be using the odds on the most unique and fastest-growing sports prediction sites -- Novig. If you're not familiar with the site, I'll explain how it works and provide some of my favorite wagers to place on Novig.
As always, make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy football and betting needs. Now, here are some of my favorite NBA bets and player props for Wednesday night's games.
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What is Novig?
Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other, without the "vig" typically associated with a sportsbook. The vig is the fee sportsbooks charge to use their services. It's a hidden cost in the odds offered on each side of a specific bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, it is keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.
On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similarly to the way that investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you just have to win against other users -- the site keeps no commission.
Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, player props, parlays, and futures!
Novig operates with two virtual currencies. Novig coins can be wagered for fun and to test out strategies, while Novig cash can be wagered on all markets and then redeemed for real cash prizes.
Access to Novig is widespread; it's now accessible in 36 U.S. states.
How Does Novig Work?
Since users are not playing against the books, there is an opportunity to make more money per wager that you win, and users can usually find better values on bets (in terms of the prices being offered) than on traditional sportsbooks.
There are no oddsmakers; users dictate their own odds. You can either accept the odds that the market is offering or set your own odds. If you set your own odds, another user has to accept them on the other side for the bet to be activated. Users drive the market, not the sportsbook or oddsmakers!
NBA Sides and Totals
All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 9:30 AM ET
L.A. Lakers (+2.5, +100) at Houston Rockets
Compare at FanDuel at -110
Rarely do I want to go back to the same matchup between two teams that just played. However, the Lakers should feel a bit disrespected as underdogs tonight, even if they are on the road, after beating Houston 100-92 on Monday night. The Rockets were without Alperen Sengun in that game, and he'll be back tonight. But Luka Doncic is playing some MVP-caliber basketball right now, Austin Reaves has regained his pre-injury form, and LeBron James continues to defy Father Time as the "third option" for this team.
The Lakers have won 8 of their last 9 games.
The Lakers have won 5 straight games.
The Lakers have won their last 3 games played against teams above .600. pic.twitter.com/1bLzbvMGcG
— Witness King James (@WITNESSKJ) March 15, 2026
The Lakers are red hot, and Houston has dropped four straight. I'll take the streaking team and the points, while also laying an additional half-unit on Lakers ML (+123).
Prop Bet Picks
All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 9:30 AM ET
Josh Giddey OVER 18.5 Rebounds + Assists (-126)
We have only a handful of games we know should stay competitive to target, and one of those is the Chicago-Toronto matchup that has just a 7.5-point spread.
If the Bulls do hang with the Raptors, it will likely be a result of Giddey's play. He's been on fire lately in terms of his rebounding and passing, going over this prop in five straight games while averaging 24.4 rebounds/assists and going for four triple-doubles in that stretch.
Cooper Flagg OVER 12.5 Rebounds + Assists (-116)
Sticking with another big point guard who has been racking up boards and assists in droves, we have Cooper Flagg and the pesky Mavericks taking on the Hawks tonight. Dallas is an 8.5-point underdog in this one, but has shown that they can be competitive against better teams when Flagg is in the lineup most nights.
Flagg has gone over this prop in four of his last five games, including 17 boards and dimes against the Hawks when they met up just over a week ago.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker OVER 19.5 PTS (-124)
Staying in the same game, I'm rolling with one of the hottest offensive players on the Hawks right now, the player we affectionately know as "NAW."
The Mavericks are allowing the most points to opposing shooting guards over their last 15 games, and NAW has been cooking lately, averaging 26.4 points over his last five games and going over this prop in four of those games, including a 29-point outburst in that matchup with Dallas last week.
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You can claim your welcome offer to Novig right now by clicking on the image below.
NBA Value Props
All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 9:30 AM ET
Cody Williams OVER 21.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-106)
The emergence of Cody Williams has been fun to watch. He didn't do much as a rookie, or for most of this season, before finally breaking out in the last few weeks as the Jazz started shutting down the rest of their regulars.
His PRA prop continues to go up each game, but it still feels low here, considering that the younger brother of Jalen Williams has averaged 28.4 PRA over his last five games and cleared this mark in four of those games.
Cameron Johnson over 11.5 Points (-114)
Cam Johnson did it again last night, scoring 18 points for the second game in a row and clearing his points prop for the fourth straight game. Tonight, he has the best possible matchup for small forwards as Memphis has allowed the most points to wings over their last 15 games.
We've seen Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray defer to Johnson and others in games where they can win pretty easily before, so don't be surprised if Cam has another big night here.
Bones Hyland over 12.5 Points (-115)
The Wolves found out they'd be without their star Anthony Edwards for a week or two with a balky knee, and Bones stepped up immediately with 22 points last night. He's cleared this mark in three of the five games that Edwards has missed this season, and with the Wolves heavy favorites here, I wouldn't be surprised if Hyland plays a lot of minutes off the bench, especially if Minnesota can get a big lead at some point.
Bones is a pure scorer, and Ant's absence opens up a lot of shots. This is a low bar to cross for such a talented shooter and scorer in a plus matchup.
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