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Mike's Week 3 college football betting picks against the spread for Thursday, September 11, and Friday, September 12, 2025. Free CFB betting predictions, odds analysis, and ATS picks from RotoBaller.
Week 2 of the 2025 college football season brought some more upsets. South Florida is the darling of the Group of 5 after winning in The Swamp. Two more top 25 teams fell to unranked teams. What does Week 3 have in store? How did we do in Week 2? We'll start off the betting week right with the picks for Thursday and Friday.
Long Island and Bryant join Tarleton and Austin Peay as FCS teams to knock off FBS teams with wins over Eastern Michigan and Massachusetts, respectively. There have been more FCS upsets of FBS teams this year, which is always exciting.
We have another loaded weekend with 70 total games. We have one on Thursday and five on Friday, but only three feature FBS vs. FBS teams. I don't pick FCS games. The lines usually aren't posted, and if they are, they most certainly are not in our favor. We'll also take a look back at my record for Week 2.
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CFB Betting Picks for Week 3 (9/11-12/25)
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I think you should know who you're listening to. I've been doing this since 2014, and I have most of my record available for viewing here. This can help you determine which teams I usually pick correctly or incorrectly, as the case may be.
North Carolina State (-7.5) at Wake Forest
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I'm not surprised by this. Demond Claiborne is the Wake offense. If the Pack can shut him down, they win going away. That's more than possible, it's likely
Pick: North Carolina State -7.5
Colorado at Houston (-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm not willing to vault Houston up that far for smashing Rice. I still like Colorado outright, even with Ryan Staub starting. Well...ESPN said that Staub is starting. Coach Prime says a decision hasn't been made yet.
That has caused a bit of fluctuation in this line. My educated guess is that ESPN jumped the shark, and Prime is going to start Kaidon Salter to prove some kind of point. I do think that Salter has a short leash and that Staub will play most of the game.
The uncertainty has me tempering the bet a bit. I'm close to not chasing this at all.
Pick: Colorado +4.5
Kansas State (-1.5) at Arizona
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I don't buy this. Kansas State's defense is a problem, and the offense can't get going. Noah Fifita has a new favorite target in Javin Whatley. I like Arizona outright at home.
Pick: Arizona +1.5
New Mexico at UCLA (-15.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I hate this line more than I thought I would. The Lobos only lost to Michigan by 17. UCLA's defense isn't quite as good as Michigan's. Neither is the offense. That said, I feel like Michigan was going through the motions in Week 1 and trying not to show Oklahoma anything. UCLA needs a big win. They get it here.
Pick: UCLA -15.5
CFB Betting Picks - Last Week's Results
I promised transparency, and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone if they won't admit the good or the bad?
You can track my wins and losses on this sheet. I have everything updated from 2014-18 and 2023-present. I'm still looking for missing articles from 2019 and 2020 to get a running total of all of my picks. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My result will follow.
James Madison at Louisville (-13.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Yep...Louisville won by 14. I was impressed with the James Madison defense in this one. The Dukes allowed one big play to Isaac Brown and one big play to Chris Bell. The Louisville offense was stationary the rest of the time.
The two-QB system for James Madison is NOT working. They aren't even alternating series...it's being done in the middle of drives! It completely interrupted the flow of the game, and Louisville was able to key in on Matthew Sluka. He ran 21 times while only attempting five passes.
Sluka transferred here to be with his former coach when it was thought that Alonza Barnett III would miss half the season. It's clear that Sluka was promised playing time, but Barnett has been by far the better quarterback.
Northern Illinois at Maryland (-16.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I knew better. The NIU defense is still a solid unit. Malik Washington still had a solid game. Maryland fans can be happy about that...and that they have him for a couple more years (maybe).
Florida International at (2) Penn State (-41.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was a hell of a game by FIU. This game was 20-0 with four minutes left before Penn State got loose. You won't see any shade from me. I understand it. Optics and scores matter. There are an alarming number of people who vote in national polls who don't look at anything besides the score.
San Jose State at (7) Texas (-36.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Probably my favorite 2-play stretch for Arch Manning on Saturday.
Pressure comes on both, and he stands in the pocket to find Jordan Washington, then climbs and escapes to hit a wide open Emaree Winston.
55 yards on back to back plays. pic.twitter.com/5EjtwnwF0X
— CJ Vogel (@CJVogel_OTF) September 9, 2025
It took the Arch train a little bit to get going, but once he did, he finished with four touchdowns. The backups couldn't seal the deal.
(11) Illinois (-2.5) at Duke: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I was wrong about Duke staying close. I don't know if Illinois is at the top of the Big Ten (18) yet, but they are closer than many think. Illinois is in the AP top 10 for the first time since 2001.
Do you still think that this wasn't a big win? Duke was 17-3 at home in the last three seasons. That was the best mark in the ACC.
Iowa at (16) Iowa State (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This was the 2nd half of the Cy-Hawk Trophy game.
Since 2005, 16 of the last 20 matchups between Iowa and Iowa State have gone UNDER.
El Assico always delivers. pic.twitter.com/fM3QHNiRtf
— Ben Stevens (@BenScottStevens) September 6, 2025
I should have been more wary of that half. This is almost always a close game, at least in the last decade. Kyle Konrardy was the MVP. He scored 10 of Iowa State's 16 points. In other news, did you see this catch by Gabe Burkle? Wow!
El Assico always delivers pic.twitter.com/GJw5yB3Rsm
— CJ Fogler 🫡 (@cjzero) September 6, 2025
Baylor at (17) SMU (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Last 5 QB Heisman’s through 2 games
Jayden Daniels: 615 passing yards & 6TDs
Caleb Williams: 590 passing yards & 6TDs
Bryce Young: 571 passing yards & 7TDs
Joe Burrow: 749 passing yards & 9TDs
Kyler Murray: 515 passing yards & 5TDsSawyer Robertson: 859 passing yards & 7TDs pic.twitter.com/0lZZdkBWl0
— Garrett Armbrust (@4thandsaturday) September 9, 2025
How many more chances could SMU get to win this game? This looked like (and SHOULD be) an old Big 12 game. All offense, no defense, and puzzling play calls at critical times.
Kennesaw State at (23) Indiana (-35.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I see that Indiana got all the kinks worked out of the offense...
Kent State at (24) Texas Tech (-48.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Behren Morton played and played well. At least Tech's second string didn't go off like the first string did. This game was 48-0 at halftime.
Virginia at North Carolina State (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Chandler Morris threw a game-clinching interception just so I know my place. I harped on him last year at North Texas about mistakes. This is the karma boomerang taking my four points and slapping me upside the head. I deserve this.
That said, Virginia has plenty of opportunities down the stretch and couldn't capitalize, despite the defense holding the Pack scoreless in the final quarter.
Central Michigan at Pittsburgh (-22.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Eli Holstein started fast in 2024 as well, but injuries took their toll in conference season. He's still healthy right now.
ACC QBs with 500+ pass yards and 8+ pass TD in their 1st 2 games of the season, last 20 years:
Drake Maye, 2022
Kyle McCord, 2024
Eli Holstein, 2025
Dylan Lonergan, 2025— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) September 9, 2025
Connecticut at Syracuse (-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I hate losing by half-points in overtime. The game was close throughout and one of the better ones of the weekend. At least it was only one point, but still...
Liberty (-6.5) at Jacksonville State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I knew better. Cam Cook is a man among boys in Conference USA.
Cam Cook said GET OFF OF ME!@JaxStateFB pic.twitter.com/FiAp62FsH9
— CBS Sports College Football 🏈 (@CBSSportsCFB) September 6, 2025
Utah State at (19) Texas A&M (-31.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
There is no returning SEC QB who has progressed more than Marcel Reed pic.twitter.com/HgJ3wuwnD5
— SEC Mike (@MichaelWBratton) September 7, 2025
We could look back at the end of the season and see that both of the Group of 5 opponents that the Aggies beat are in a bowl game. They are of that caliber. Marcel Reed is putting up big numbers, as many others are, but he's also doing it against decent competition.
Oklahoma State at (6) Oregon (-27.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Oklahoma State fans have a lot to complain about after yesterday's 69-3 loss to Oregon... pic.twitter.com/erdva625At
— RedditCFB (@RedditCFB) September 7, 2025
The 69 points allowed were the most by the Cowboys since they allowed 75 to Oklahoma in 1904. Oklahoma wasn't yet a state, and the team was still known as the Oklahoma A&M Aggies. Mike Gundy has done a whole lot for the football program, but the ride may be over. It's going to be hard to come back from this.
Troy at (8) Clemson (-30.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Maybe Troy is better than last year, but under no circumstances should they be leading 16-0 AT Clemson. Did Cade Klubnik regress? Maybe adding an RB from the portal would have been a good idea...
(20) Mississippi (-8.5) at Kentucky: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Curse you, Kentucky, for kicking a field goal with eight seconds left. This one hurts.
Kansas at Missouri (-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Leave it to the Kansas defense to blow a 15-point lead. Missouri racked up 595 yards of total offense. I know that the Missouri offense is good, but this is bad...really bad. Kansas couldn't run the ball at all. No amount of Jalon Daniels' hero ball could fix that.
I see a lot of complaints about the officiating crew and that they were reprimanded, but I still don't see it changing the outcome of the game. Yes, the Missouri player batted the ball forward. Given the way the Kansas defense was playing, Missouri would have scored a touchdown in two plays anyway.
The officials didn't turn the Kansas defense into a Swiss cheese donut. The Missouri offense did that.
Miami (OH) at Rutgers (-15.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Greg Schiano doubters are awfully quiet. I'm old enough to remember Athan Kaliakmanis as a freshman at Minnesota. The Gophers barely let him throw the ball. He had four passing touchdowns in this game against one of the better defenses in the MAC. The progress that Athan Kaliakmanis has made is impressive.
Rutgers QB Athan Kaliakmanis passing numbers 🎯
- Kept Clean: 23-of-33 for 229yds, 4TDs
- Under pressure: 3-of-3 for 30yds
- Not Blitzed: 18-of-24 for 168yds, 3TDs
- When blitzed: 8-of-12 for 91yds, 1TDMORE 👉https://t.co/jZuLREWzoU https://t.co/yeVLSxOezL
— Rutgers Scarlet Knights | The Knight Report (@RutgersOn3) September 7, 2025
Fresno State at Oregon State (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Here I was excited to see E.J. Warner throw it around in a Fresno offense that favors QBs. The running game has been even better. The defense and special teams have been elite. Fresno is a very well-rounded team.
I have watched roughly 500 college football games per season for the last decade, and I've never seen anything like this. Sometimes we still see things that haven't been done before. This is one of those plays.
WHAT JUST HAPPENED?!@BeaverFootball botches the snap and @FresnoStateFB picks up the kicked ball for the score 🤯 pic.twitter.com/jQCOV8cYRz
— The CW Sports (@TheCW_Sports) September 6, 2025
Bowling Green at Cincinnati (-22.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Cincinnati got bored in this one. That's the only way to explain it. The Falcons were covered heading into the fourth.
Delaware at Colorado (-23.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
There may be a QB controversy in Boulder. Staub outplayed Salter. Even Julian Lewis got a few plays. Stay tuned to As Boulder Turns.
Texas State at UTSA (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The UTSA defense is a problem, and not in a good way. Brad Jackson to Beau Sparks was a lethal combination. In other news, Robert Henry Jr. is one of the best RBs at the Group of 5 level.
Not much of a consolation price this morning, but Robert Henry is the leading rusher in the country. pic.twitter.com/gBlpty1KDY
— Javi Cardenas (@BirdsUpJavi) September 7, 2025
UAB at Navy (-20.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Mother Nature poured cold water on Navy a few times in this one. It's hard to keep the offense humming when the first half takes more than four hours to complete.
Crazy note from Navy’s 38-24 win over UAB:
*Both teams scored every time they had the ball in the first half.
— Emily Van Buskirk (@Emilnem) September 7, 2025
North Texas (-9.5) at Western Michigan: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Either Western Michigan is a whole lot better than I think, or the Mean Green defense is still a sore spot. I have a sinking feeling that it may be the latter.
Middle Tennessee State at Wisconsin (-28.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This might be the best game that Danny O'Neil has ever played. Wisconsin only ran the ball 29 times. So much for the return of "Badger Ball." In all fairness, it wasn't a bad idea for the Badgers to work on the passing game against an overmatched opponent.
West Virginia (-3.5) at Ohio: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Ohio defense played an excellent game in this one, but the horse collar tackle that took away Jahiem White for the season (which is a loss for every college football fan, not just the Mountaineers) was a dirty play. Maybe there needs to be a more serious penalty when a player is hurt for an extended period of time due to a dirty play.
That said, 99 times out of 100, a horse collar doesn't end that way. When it does, it's usually a devastating injury. Unfortunately, this instance was one of those.
South Florida at (13) Florida (-17.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I pulled up short of predicting an outright win, but I'm not surprised. I figured that USF would make a few mistakes and ultimately lose a close game. This was the exact opposite. Note to Florida: if you give a guy named Nico Gramatica a shot at a game-winning kick, he's going to make it.
These Florida players are the ones who saved Billy Napier's job last year. What I saw in this field was a bunch of undisciplined players. Penalties negated a lot of points for the Gators and were completely preventable.
USF became the first team to beat every FBS team in the state of Florida on its own field. South Florida has wins at Florida, Florida State, Miami, UCF, Florida
Atlantic, and FIU.— Emily Van Buskirk (@Emilnem) September 7, 2025
Arkansas State at Arkansas (-23.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I feel like a lot of people have forgotten about Taylen Green. He was all the rage at Boise, but was lost in a 6-6 season for Arkansas last year. He's off to a fast start. Not coincidentally, so are the Piggies.
Missouri State at Marshall (-8.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This one surprises me. Everyone knew that when James Madison moved up, they would be better than the middle-of-the-pack in the FBS. Jacksonville State was expected to be better than average. Same with Sam Houston. Delaware was supposed to be the better of the two that made the jump this year. That may not be the case...
North Carolina (-13.5) at Charlotte: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This shouldn't surprise anyone. What does surprise me is the struggles of Gio Lopez in the early going. He was a beast at South Alabama.
Army at Kansas State (-17.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
If you lose in Ireland, you’ll have the worst season your school has ever had. It’s now a thing. https://t.co/qJrWNnPwwZ
— Tone Digs (@ToneDigz) September 7, 2025
Is this the new Madden cover jinx? It feels like it could be. Kansas State's inability to stop the run is surprising. It is VERY disturbing that college football is overturning so many clear catches. QUIT TRYING TO TURN THIS INTO THE NFL! Haven't you imbeciles ruined the sport enough?
Cale Hellums made his first career start on the road in the Little Apple and beat the Wildcats. I've been to that stadium. It's LOUD in there. Well done, kid.
Houston (-13.5) at Rice: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Don’t ever say the Bayou Bucket doesn’t matter to the players @UHCougarFB pic.twitter.com/wH3Rcz6PBm
— Pawd Slama Jama (@PawdSlamaJama) September 7, 2025
So much for Rice staying close. Expect a lot of Bucket shenanigans from the Houston side. The Bucket is theirs until at least 2032, with no other games with Rice scheduled.
Western Kentucky at Toledo (-7.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Maybe Kentucky is better than we think. Maybe Toledo playing the Wildcats close was an indicator of how good both teams are. This was a big statement from former Kentucky/Arizona State/Ohio State RB Chip Trayanum.
Memphis (-13.5) at Georgia State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Memphis has gone back to a run-dominant offense, with QB Brendon Lewis joining the charge. The Tigers adapted the offense to fit Lewis's strengths (short passes, designed QB runs) with great success so far.
Tulane (-10.5) at South Alabama: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Brendan Sullivan looked good when he was in there, but this still feels like a bad idea to use both unless Jake Retzlaff struggles. That hasn't been the case yet. The Tulane defense was gouged in this one.
Louisiana Tech at (3) LSU (-36.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
We need to start noting which teams play a good team and/or a rival following a clearly inferior team. LSU had no interest in covering this. They clearly used the game as an amped-up practice.
(12) Arizona State (-6.5) at Mississippi State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
The growth of Mississippi State has been very impressive so far, but this says a lot about the Big 12 (16)...and none of it is good. As an alleged top-15 team, I don't know how you allow this to happen.
Brenen Thompson : 6 catches for a career-high 133 yards & 2 TD's on 8 targets (Game-winning 58-yard TD catch & run with 30 seconds left) pic.twitter.com/VuPeGqRaGY
— Lee Harvey (@MusikFan4Life) September 7, 2025
For all of you pearl-clutchers appalled at field storming...get over it. The people on the field are mostly students trying to get selfies with their favorite players or getting street cred for being on camera. They aren't bothering the other team.
Part of what sets college football so far apart from the NFL is the passion. A team that won just two games last year, hadn't won a conference game in nearly two years, and hadn't beaten a ranked team at home since October of 2022, this was earned.
The reason why the NFL and college football can coexist is that they are NOT the same. What is the rush to turn college football into the NFL's version of the G-League? 95% of NBA fans couldn't care less about the G-League. Let colleges have their fun and storm the field for upsets. It's a special occasion.
Mississippi State fans have the goal post pic.twitter.com/CwYnWK4mav
— Jomboy Media (@JomboyMedia) September 7, 2025
In a cruel twist of fate, it wasn't the students who commandeered the goalposts. A few students helped the staff carry them into storage. I was really hoping they would wind up in the bar district, then at the Chancellor's house, the way God intended.
(15) Michigan at (18) Oklahoma (-4.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
It has been a long time since I have been excited about an Oklahoma defense. This is what I signed up for when Brent Venables took the job. John Mateer has been the most impactful transfer for any team so far.
This play sums up Oklahoma QB John Mateer at his best.
3rd-and-8. Shows the awareness/strength to shake the blitzer, extend the play and fire a 35-yard seed. Sick throw. pic.twitter.com/ze28EAzUct
— Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) September 9, 2025
The Oklahoma schedule is a bear, but they passed the first test here against a strong Michigan defense. Bryce Underwood looked good in a losing effort as well. He's not your usual Michigan quarterback.
Ball State at Auburn (-42.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I knew better. Auburn showed off and still didn't cover.
Vanderbilt at Virginia Tech (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The problems are deeper than Kyron Drones. This game went off the rails in the second half. Vandy scored 34 unanswered to run off with this. It's a tough time to be Brent Pry right now. His buyout isn't nearly as prohibitive as, say, Napier.
Akron at Nebraska (-33.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This was a statement by Nebraska. The 68 points scored were the most since Nebraska scored 73 on Idaho State in 2012. It was the first shutout since 2009. The 728 total yards for Nebraska were the eighth-highest total in school history. I know that Akron is terrible, but this is what Nebraska fans needed to start believing in the team again.
Georgia Southern at USC (-28.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I know that USC hasn't played tough competition yet, but this is the best the Trojans have looked in about five years. This offense is dangerous. We don't know a lot about the defense yet, but it is worth noting that all 20 of Georgia Southern's points were scored before the fourth quarter, i.e., on the starting defense.
Boston College at Michigan State (-4.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
🏆 ACC POTW: QB — Dylan Lonergan
💥 34/45, 390 yards, 4 TDs vs Michigan State
💥 Most BC completions since 2020 (34)
💥 8 TDs, 0 INTs through 2 games — first since 2018@BCFootball | @BCEagles | #NextLevel pic.twitter.com/aXmOg8p9Ed— ACC Digital Network (@theACCDN) September 9, 2025
This was a wild one! Alabama transfer Dylan Lonergan is looking like Doug Flutie back there. What may have been more impressive was Aiden Chiles for Michigan State. He's not the pocket guy that Lonergan is, but he has clearly done work on his throwing in the offseason.
Louisiana-Monroe at (21) Alabama (-34.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I figured that Alabama was going to make a statement. The 73 points for the Tide were the most since October of 1973, when they dropped 77 on Virginia Tech. It was the largest shutout victory for Alabama since 1951.
UCLA (-2.5) at UNLV: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
There is some silver lining for UCLA here. Nico Iamaleava had a decent game. The defense held Jai'Den Thomas to just 61 rushing yards. UCLA stormed back after falling behind by 20. It feels like there may be something brewing just below the surface of UCLA.
Tulsa (-4.5) at New Mexico State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Losing to the Aggies is a fireable offense in some states.
San Diego State at Washington State (-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Washington State loses the current Heisman favorite and a stud freshman running back from 2024. They already have replacements. Will Jaxon Potter stick around in Pullman longer than Mateer and Cam Ward?
Stanford at BYU (-20.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Stanford defense actually played fairly well. The offense is a complete and total disaster.
Sam Houston at Hawaii (-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Luke Weaver's first career start went well. Of course, when you have receivers like Hawaii does (and an offense tailor-made for passing stats), it's much easier.
College Football Betting Season Results
Now is the time of the week when we tally up the scores. I had a decent week at 26-24, putting me at 51-42 on the season. I think I lost points this week, thanks to my poor showing on the high bets.
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 3-2 (6-3) = 3
2. 9-8 (21-15) = 12
3. 10-6 (17-12) = 15
4. 3-5 (9-7) = 8
5. 1-3 (3-5) = -10
I am still up 28 points on the season. Anytime we're ahead of the casinos, we can be happy about it.
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