MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (8/2/2025)

Zach Thompson's best MLB player prop bets for today (8/2/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Vinnie Pasquantino, Andrew McCutchen, Michael Harris II, and Miguel Vargas.

As the dust continues to settle after an exciting and active trade deadline, Major League Baseball has another jam-packed day of baseball this Saturday, with all 30 teams on the schedule spread throughout the day. The schedule is built around the MLB Speedway Classic at 7:15 p.m. ET, which is being played at Bristol Motor Speedway, as the only game in that prime time timeslot. A wave of seven games at 4:05 p.m. ET precedes that contest, and three more games close out the night with starts after 10:00 p.m. ET.

Overall, it's a great slate for hitting with several of the most homer-friendly parks in play along with favorable pitching matchups and plenty of warm summer weather. With so many good spots to consider for home run props, it can be hard to narrow down the selections to the top options. To help find the best spots, several key factors should be considered, such as batted ball metrics, platoon splits, weather conditions, and park factors. We also want to ensure we're getting a favorable price with betting odds. In this article, I attempt to provide home run bets with as much value as possible, usually avoiding the most obvious options. Playing options with longer odds pay off when they hit, especially if you use the picks at a small unit size in a round robin format.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Saturday, August 2, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary greatly from one sportsbook to another.

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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (8/2/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Saturday, August 2:

• Vinnie Pasquantino, Kansas City Royals
• Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh Pirates
• Michael Harris II, Atlanta Braves
• Miguel Vargas, Chicago White Sox

Vinnie Pasquantino OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+360 DraftKings)

For the first of my home run prop picks of this Saturday, I'm headed north of the border for the second game of an exciting series between the Royals and the Blue Jays. Max Scherzer gets the start for Toronto, and that puts Vinnie Pasquantino on the board as a good option for a home run.

Pasquantino has three homers in his last eight games and will match his season total from last year with his next dinger. Right now, he sits at 18 homers with a .266 batting average and .334 wOBA on the season. He's hitting .281 with a .352 wOBA and 14 of his 18 home runs against right-handed pitchers like Scherzer. His last home run also came off a righty earlier this week against Erick Fedde.

Vinnie Pasquantino - 412ft
RBIs: 1
Season Total: 18
Career Total: 56

Pitcher: Erick Fedde
Location: Kauffman Stadium
Date: 7/29/2025 pic.twitter.com/SYzfMdhJdm

— Royals Home Runs (@RoyalsDingers) July 29, 2025

After dealing with injuries earlier this season, Scherzer has worked his way back to health, but has a 4.89 ERA and a 4.61 FIP in his 35 innings. He has given up eight homers in his seven starts, including five long balls in his three most recent outings. Lefties like Vinnie P. have done most of the damage, hitting six of those eight homers with a .362 wOBA against Scherzer.

The Pasquatch is always a fun character to cheer for, and he's established himself as one of the Royals' top offensive options. He's picked up six barrels in his last eight games and seems to be locking in at the plate as he looks to try to help his team hang in the AL Wild Card race.

Andrew McCutchen OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+310 DraftKings)

McCutchen and the Pirates take on the Rockies on Saturday afternoon after a wild Coors Field special last night, which the Rockies won on a walkoff by a score of 17-16. The game featured 33 runs on 40 hits and 14 walks with six home runs. McCutchen hit the second of those home runs in a nine-run first inning that the Pirates ultimately couldn't convert to a victory.

Andrew McCutchen makes it a NINE-run 1st inning for the @Pirates! 🤯 pic.twitter.com/1MKGhK78ym

— MLB (@MLB) August 2, 2025

McCutchen has three homers in his last seven games and is up to 11 homers on the season. He joined an exclusive club of just 11 players in major league history who hit at least 10 homers in each of their first 17 seasons. The 38-year-old still has plenty of time to continue to add to his total this season, and has put up solid metrics with a 43.6% hard-hit rate and 9.5% barrel rate, both of which are higher than his career average.

McCutchen has hit .301 against lefties this season, and he'll be on that side of his splits for the start on Saturday against the struggling Austin Gomber. Gomber has allowed eight homers in eight starts this year, including five at Coors Field, where he has a 7.52 ERA, 5.95 FIP, and a .443 wOBA against him in 20 1/3 innings. Righties have hit six of the eight homers against him this season with a .394 wOBA and a .498 wOBA at Coors Field.

In such a homer-happy environment and matchup, McCutchen has a good shot to go yard for a second straight game in Denver.

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Michael Harris II OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+500 DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Bristol Motor Speedway will host the Speedway Classic, where Major League Baseball will break the attendance record with over 85,000 tickets sold. It will also be the first MLB game played in the state of Tennessee.

The field itself is fairly typical, with dimensions of 330 feet down each line and 400 feet to center field, but how they built the field and got ready for this showcase is fascinating.

NASCAR track ➡️ baseball stadium 🏁⚾️

Dive into how Bristol Motor Speedway was turned into a baseball stadium! pic.twitter.com/Jj4rG87M1W

— MLB (@MLB) August 1, 2025

The pitching matchup is a good one between Spencer Strider for the Braves and Chase Burns of the Reds, but there's also potential for big flies since both pitchers have allowed home runs recently. Burns has given up four homers in his six starts in the majors, and three have been hit by left-handed hitters like Harris.

Harris is a long shot to hit a home run, but I love the value odds we get with him at +500. Like many of the Braves, the 24-year-old is having a down year overall, hitting just .233 with a .269 wOBA. However, he's been heating up lately and may finally be rediscovering the form that helped him edge out Strider for the Rookie of the Year Award in 2022.

In his last nine games, Harris went 17-for-37 (.459) with two doubles, two home runs, and three triples for a .554 wOBA. He had a 52.9% hard-hit rate and 20.6% barrel rate during that span with an average exit velocity of 92.9 miles per hour. Those numbers stand in stark contrast to his stats from his previous 98 games, when he had a 40.5% hard-hit rate, 6.1% barrel rate, and an average exit velocity of 89.3 miles per hour.

With Harris finding some form and Burns giving up homers to lefties, Harris is my favorite play from the showcase matchup in Bristol this Saturday.

Miguel Vargas OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+475 DraftKings)

While Sutter Health Park is tempting in the late window, the value has been drained from most of the odds available, so instead, I'm looking to another California matchup and focusing on Anaheim, where the Halos host the White Sox.

The White Sox have looked like a legitimate big league offense over the last month, scoring the second-most runs in the majors and posting a .333 wOBA and 113 wRC+. One of the key contributors to their success has been 25-year-old Miguel Vargas, who came to the team in a trade from the Dodgers last season.

Vargas has already set a career-high with 13 homers this season while hitting .227 with a .309 wOBA. Three of those home runs have come in his 13 games since the All-Star break, and during that span, he's hitting .296 with a .377 wOBA, 13 runs scored, and nine RBI.

MIGUEL VARGAS 3-RUN BOMB 💣

pic.twitter.com/Z2Nbp1Oe7J

— Sox On 35th (@SoxOn35th) July 30, 2025

The White Sox are in a favorable spot for Vargas and the other righties as they face Kyle Hendricks on Saturday night in Anaheim. Hendricks has served up 18 homers in 20 starts this season, including six in his last six games. He has a 4.73 ERA and 4.82 FIP on the season and has allowed righties like Vargas to hit .299 with a .364 wOBA and 12 of his 18 homers allowed. The fact that righties have 67% of the home runs against him is even more impressive since they only have 46% of the plate appearances against Hendricks this season.

The wind is expected to be blowing out in sunny and warm SoCal, so Vargas should get a chance to put a charge into one against Hendricks. If he does go yard, he'll deliver great value at just under +500.

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