PGA Course Preview for the 2025 Genesis Scottish Open: Scouting the Routing

Ian McNeill's free comprehensive course preview of the Renaissance Club for the 2025 Genesis Scottish Open. Ian examines the course, giving key metrics and trends to help make informed decisions on the PGA betting board.

As the road to the year's final Major Championship winds down, the PGA Tour makes its fourth annual pilgrimage to the home of golf (or at least 20 miles south of it across the Firth of Fourth). Scotland's national Open has been played at the Renaissance Club in North Berwick for the last six years, and in that short time, we've seen everything from 22-under shootouts to wind-swept slog-fests won at U.S. Open-esque totals.

Aside from the variable scoring conditions, our favorite PGA Tour regulars will be tested in many different ways in North Berwick this week. Links golf is far removed from the point-and-shoot target golf we've seen in Detroit and Deer Run in recent weeks. Instead, players will be graded on variety, imagination, and creativity around this naturally imperfect terrain. However, the same attributes that make links golf such a compelling viewing product also make it an unforgiving proposition from a handicapping perspective. Weather and wind will play as vital a role in the eventual outcome as we'll see all year, and many promising prospects have been snuffed out on the back of an unfortunate draw on the tee sheet.

This piece will serve to break down every key trend and statistic I'm weighing to project a player's viability in the outright market and set our readers up to make the crucial decisions necessary on pre-week betting boards. Without further ado, here is my comprehensive scouting report on the Renaissance Club and the 2025 Genesis Scottish Open!

The Golf Course

The Renaissance Club - Par 70; 7,237 yards

Past Champions

• 2024 - Robert MacIntyre (-18) over Adam Scott
• 2023 - Rory McIlroy (-15) over Robert MacIntyre
• 2022 - Xander Schauffele (-7) over Kurt Kitayama
• 2021 - Min Woo Lee (-18) over Thomas Detry/Matt Fitzpatrick (playoff)
• 2020 - Aaron Rai (-11) over Tommy Fleetwood (playoff)
• 2019 - Bernd Wiesberger (-22) over Benjamin Hebert (playoff)

Renaissance Club by the Numbers (Off-The-Tee):

• Average Fairway Width -- 32.3 yards; 15th narrowest on the PGA Tour
• Average Driving Distance -- 294.2 yards; seventh highest on Tour
• Driving Accuracy -- 51.3%; Lowest on Tour
• Missed Fairway Penalty -- 0.26; second lowest on Tour
• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee Difficulty: (-0.020); 12th toughest on Tour

With an average fairway width of just over 30 yards and the lowest driving accuracy percentage on Tour, you'd be forgiven for thinking that Renaissance Club was due to play similarly to the off-the-tee test we saw last year at Troon. A course that, above all else, required you to avoid its perilous combination of pot bunkers, thick native grass, and gorse bush that returned one of the highest missed fairway penalties of the season and a penalty fraction comparable to waterlogged TPC Sawgrass.

However, The Renaissance Club vastly differs from last year's Open venue in the way it penalizes off-line tee shots -- despite ranking as the most difficult course on the PGA Tour to hit fairways over the last two seasons, a player's projected score from just off of the fairway sits at just 0.19 shots. In general, the 3" fescue rough here won't be nearly lush enough to provide any significant hindrance to the world's best, but that number shifts dramatically if you hone in specifically on fairways missed from outside of these friendly confines.

The "non-rough penalty" at Renaissance Club over the last three seasons sits at a whopping 0.59 strokes -- greater than we saw last year at Royal Troon and the ninth-highest mark on Tour since 2015. The caveat to all of this is in the sheer frequency in which we expect players to deal with this peril, however, as just 22 fairway bunkers are truly in play for touring professionals over the 18-hole routing and outside of the oceanside 13th and a few instances of rock outcropping, no real chance of a penalty stroke exists around these links.

This combination of difficult-to-hit fairways and general forgiveness to wayward tee shots leads me to weigh driving distance far above accuracy this week. Of the top 10 drivers of the ball here last season, only two hit more than 65% of their fairways for the week, while all ten averaged over 295 yards in distance. As seven of the ten Par 4s, this week measure over 450 yards, length off the tee will play a much bigger factor when attempting to score on Renaissance’s more demanding segments.

Renaissance Club by the Numbers (Approach):

• Green in Regulation Rate -- 62.0%; 14th lowest on the PGA Tour
• Strokes Gained: Approach Difficulty: (-0.028); eighth toughest on Tour
• Key Proximity Ranges:
  • 200+ yards (accounts for 25.1% of historical approach shots)
  • 175-200 yards (23.2%)
  • 150-175 yards (20.2%)

In terms of iron play, the Renaissance Club will provide a welcome reprieve from the point-and-shoot wedge fests we've seen in the last three weeks on Tour. Last year, 75% of approach shots came from over 150 yards, and over the last three seasons, we've seen nearly 50% of second shots come in from beyond 175.

In addition to sheer proximity, the multitude of different shots required into the greens this week will allow the game's preeminent artists to separate themselves with sheer variety. Particularly if the wind kicks up on Scotland's eastern coast this week, players will be forced to employ many different tactics to give themselves birdie looks. From low, piercing ball flights that cut through the wind to grounded shots meant to utilize the natural contours around the greens, this isn't a week to rely on players who don't have a reliable answer to many exceedingly different questions.

Admittedly, weeks like this are difficult to model for in the traditional sense, as it's difficult to make the case that recent approach splits on a soft, benign golf course like TPC Deere Run or TPC River Highlands are in any way predictive of the test players will face across the pond these next two weeks. For this reason, I'm paying even more attention to both course history at Renaissance Club and comp. course history at The Open and the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship played on the DP World Tour every fall. I cannot emphasize enough that this is an entirely different game from what we see week in and week out on the PGA Tour, and these historical markers are perhaps the best gauge we have of just how prepared these guys are for the examination ahead.

Renaissance Club by the Numbers (Around the Greens):

• Scrambling Percentage -- 53.6%; 3.9% below Tour Average 
• Sand Save Difficulty -- (-0.010); 12th toughest on Tour
• Up-and-Down Difficulty (Fairway) -- (+0.070); second easiest on Tour
• Up-and-Down Difficulty (Rough) -- (+0.107); Easiest on Tour
• SG: Around the Green Difficulty: (+0.079); Easiest on Tour

One paragraph after talking up this course like the second coming of Augusta National, we reach far and away its most straightforward aspect. Links courses carry quite a reputation around the world for their difficulty around the greens, and over the last few seasons, we've seen some of the most difficult greenside surrounds in Championship golf around St. Andrews and Royal Liverpool.

The Renaissance Club, however, cannot claim to carry the same prestige as St. Andrews' perilous runoffs or Hoylake's cavernous bunkering -- as it actually sits as the easiest course to gain strokes around the greens on the entire PGA Tour. In fact, in 2023, Renaissance sat dead last out of 45 courses in Strokes Gained difficulty from both the rough and the fairway while also sitting 38th out of 45 courses in difficulty from the sand.

Of course, the importance of a good short game is most scaled with wind projections. In past iterations of the Scottish Open, we've seen players crest the 90% mark for Greens in Regulation in calm conditions and dip below 60% two years ago in the most wind-affected of the recent events at Renaissance Club. I don't see anything in the upcoming forecast to suggest we need to prepare for doomsday, but if things do change drastically in the coming days, around the green play will be among the first major adjustments made in the modeling.

Renaissance Club by the Numbers (Putting):

• Average Green Size: 7,000 sq. feet
• Agronomy -- Red Fescue
• Stimpmeter: 10
• 3-Putt Percentage: 2.4% (0.6% below Tour Average)
• Strokes Gained: Putting Difficulty: (-0.016); fifth toughest on Tour

Similarly to my passage on approach play, the greens at Renaissance Club are also unlike anything we’ve seen in the 2024 PGA Tour season. At over 7,000 square feet on average, they rank as the 8th largest complexes on the schedule, and as is tradition on British Links courses, they’re made up of the same native fescue we see in the fairways and rough. Running at a 10 on the Stimpmeter, I’d expect these greens to be among the slowest we’ll see all year, and given their sheer size, I'll be placing an extra-special emphasis on lag putting splits like approach putt performance and three-putt performance.

We should also note that Renaissance Club has ranked as the most difficult course on Tour to putt inside of five feet over the last two seasons and the fifth-most difficult from five to 15 feet. The combination of blustery winds and unfamiliar surfaces has the potential to wreak havoc on players who aren’t coming in with a ton of confidence on the greens. I'll be looking for players with both touches from long range and an aptitude from inside 10 feet -- with special emphasis on positive splits on similarly slow greens.

Key Stats Roundup (in order of importance):

• History on Links Courses (Open Championships, Alfred Dunhill Links Championships, Scottish Open's, etc.)
• Mid/Long Iron play -- particularly from 150 yards and beyond
• Putting on Slower Green Complexes -- looking both at lag putting metrics like Approach Putt Performance/Three-Putt Avoidance as well as splits from the key scoring range of 5-15 feet
• Driving Distance
• Proficiency in the Wind

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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

The Sunday Shortlist

Before the odds come out on Monday morning, here are two to three names I’ve identified as significant targets upon my initial research.

Tommy Fleetwood

Tommy Fleetwood hit EVERY fairway en route to a 3-shot lead @TravelersChamp. pic.twitter.com/azIvCZfsXs

— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) June 22, 2025

Tommy Fleetwood (+2200 to win) with a 58+ foot putt for birdie 🐦pic.twitter.com/JRTsS35P5X

— Caesars Sportsbook & Casino (@CaesarsSports) July 21, 2023

In full disclosure, with the profound effects that weather can have on these coastal links tracks, this is one of the few weeks in which I'm okay sacrificing a few points on the opening line to ensure my player won't be facing the near-impossible task of contending from the bad side of a draw. At the time I'm writing this (Sunday evening), North Berwick doesn't look to be forecasted for any significant weather events (wind or rain) for either of the first two rounds. But I've been burned far too many times by a late-week shift in forecasted winds to go punting off my entire budget on the word of a Monday AM weather report.

That doesn't mean we should completely abandon any semblance of due diligence beforehand, however, and perhaps nobody in this field is better suited to deal with these volatile circumstances than Southport's own Tommy Fleetwood. The Englishman has been the most consistent links player on the planet over the last six years: recording eleven top-twelve finishes in 16 starts at the Open Championship, Scottish Open, and Alfred Dunhill Links Championship since 2018.

Fleetwood's proficiency not only in the wind but also on and around the traditionally slower green complexes on the links makes him an ever-present threat in the British Isles. And this season, Fleetwood comes into his homecoming with some added momentum: ranking fourth in SG: Total over the last three months, and inside the top 40 in each of the four Strokes Gained categories.

This elite all-around skillset has allowed Tommy to record just two finishes worse than 21st through an eight-start stretch starting at Augusta, and in his last start at the Travelers Championship, Fleetwood recorded the best tee-to-green performance we've seen since a top five finish at LACC in the 2023 U.S. Open (+10.9 strokes gained).

Of course, questions will remain around Tommy's ability to close the deal on Sunday afternoon -- particularly after the debacle in Cromwell three weeks ago. But I'm a firm believer that good golf is all you need to eventually find your way into the winner's circle. And for what it's worth: Tommy's aforementioned top-five at LACC two years ago came directly off the bat of another of his heartbreaking losses: a playoff loss to Nick Taylor's 72-foot eagle putt in the 2023 Canadian Open.

With his history around links tracks and his incoming form, I'm certainly not expecting to see much of a discount on Fleetwood this week, but I do believe he represents the safest entity in this field outside of Scheffler and McIlroy. He famously won his first-ever pro tournament as a fresh-faced 22-year-old at Gleneagles, and at any price over 20-1, I think he's got a great chance of repeating the trick for his first PGA Tour title just a couple hours down the Scottish coastline.

Matt Fitzpatrick

One of the players who knows *exactly* how to win this championship, Matt Fitzpatrick rolls in a smooth birdie on No. 1. pic.twitter.com/ZZIvZ7vWbE

— U.S. Open (@usopengolf) June 12, 2025

While Matt Fitzpatrick no longer faces the same questions that his countryman does about winning pedigree, the three years since his famous U.S. Open triumph have been far from easy. Marred by inconsistency, swing problems, and a rather infamous oversight with his driver last year, Fitzpatrick went on record in April's RBC Heritage saying "2025 has been the worst I've ever played." Matt specifically cited his iron play as not being good enough -- as through eight starts to that point in the season, he'd gained to the field just once with his approach play.

Perhaps speaking candidly about his struggles allowed for a bit more freedom on the course, as Fitzpatrick went on to record his best approach week in over 12 months in Hilton Head (+3.0 strokes gained), and in five starts since, has logged the second and fourth-best iron weeks of his PGA Tour Career at Quail Hollow (+5.8) and Detroit GC (+5.5).

This rapid progression in Fitzpatrick's ball-striking has netted him a pair of top-tens and no finish worse than 38th in seven starts since the Masters: and in a great spot mentally as the Tour heads to comfortable confines in the British Isles.

Here at Renaissance Club, Matt has recorded three finishes of 15th or better in six career starts: including a runner-up finish to Min Woo Lee in 2021. He captured the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship just two years ago, and has gained strokes on the greens in his last twelve measured starts between the Scottish, Open Championship, and Alfred Dunhill.

If the ball-striking can continue to trend for Fitzpatrick, there's no reason he can't establish himself once again as one of the top entities on the PGA Tour. The winless drought may have stretched longer than we'd expected since the dream run he had between 2022-2023, but this week sets up perfectly for a return to form. Few players in this field have as complete a package for links golf as the Sheffield-native.

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020

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