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Alex Burns breaks down the fantasy basketball implications of Jayson Tatum's Achilles injury and what it means for the Boston Celtics moving forward.
It's hard to believe things could've gotten any worse for the Boston Celtics. As if gifting the first two games of the Eastern Conference semifinals to the New York Knicks wasn't egregious enough, Jayson Tatum suffered a ruptured Achilles in the final minutes of Game 4.
As first reported by ESPN NBA insider Shams Charania, Tatum has already "undergone surgery" and "has a long rehab awaiting."
BREAKING: Boston Celtics All-NBA star Jayson Tatum underwent surgery to repair a torn right Achilles tendon. Catastrophic season-ending injury for one of the NBA's young faces and the Celtics, with a long rehab awaiting. pic.twitter.com/6dx2sNJbOT
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The emphasis is on long. This likely sidelines Tatum for the entire 2025-26 season. Only adding to the headache, Boston’s front office is staring down some brutal roster decisions this offseason. With current payroll commitments, projected player salaries, and any potential additions, the Celtics are barreling toward nearly a half-billion-dollar roster. That figure wouldn’t just set a new high -- it would obliterate previous records for combined salary and luxury-tax penalties.
Jayson Tatum Injury - Where Does Boston Stand Now?
That leads us to where we are now. Boston's title timeline has effectively gone to commercial break. The only problem? Nobody knows when it's coming back or what kind of lineup it'll be returning with. Oh, and it's not just any commercial. It's that Will Ferrell PayPal ad playing on an endless loop. Brutal.
Now that we have the proper context, it's time to take a look at this from a fantasy perspective.
- What does this mean for Tatum's future fantasy ceiling?
- Just how high can Jaylen Brown's usage rate inflate to?
- Is it officially Payton Pritchard SZN?
Sure, there are still some question marks surrounding how exactly this roster will look next season, but let's break down the immediate fantasy implications.
When Will Jayson Tatum Return From His Torn Achilles?
A ruptured Achilles is a tough break for a kid who has essentially been Iron Man over his first seven seasons. If you remove the 2020 and 2021 NBA seasons (shortened due to the COVID-19 pandemic), Tatum has played no less than 72 regular-season games. But if we're going to find the silver lining in all of this, I believe there are two key factors: his age and position.
Tatum is still young. He just turned 27 in March. When analyzing a large sample size of NBA players who suffered a ruptured Achilles from 1970-2019, a study conducted by Boston.com found that 34 of 47 players returned to play at varying levels of success. And when taking a closer look at the players, it's clear that most of the guys on that list were far older than Tatum and likely heading toward a decline in production anyway.
Below are two examples of guys who returned from a ruptured Achilles and were able to provide elite production:
- Dominique Wilkins (age 32) - returned to play 72 games the following year while averaging 29.9 points per game and finishing fifth in MVP voting.
- Kevin Durant (age 31) - named to five straight All-Star contests and has averaged 27.9 points per game in the five seasons since his injury.
I'm not suggesting that Tatum is on Durant's level, but it's clear that he has age on his side, and he also plays a similar position. For a big man, a ruptured Achilles is typically a death sentence (cc DeMarcus Cousins). But for a player on the wing who can rely on a jump shot to make up for any lost step, it's usually easier to produce.
As for Tatum's fantasy chops, he's been able to provide first-round value by doing a little bit of everything over the last few years. He scores on decent splits, hits threes, grabs rebounds, and has been a decent enough playmaker offensively to get by. And while some of the other guys being drafted in the first round rely on high usage to get the job done, Tatum has hovered around 30% over the last few seasons -- which is high -- but not wild.
Given his age, I wouldn't expect his numbers to completely fall off. But even if he loses a small step, that could impact his shooting percentages, which would impact his scoring output, which then would impact the kind of value he returns. The million-dollar question I have for Tatum is this: Can he reinvent his game? Can he become a better passer to offset any decline in scoring or efficiency with an uptick in assists?
After all, a lot of this hinges on what the Celtics decide to do in the next 365+ days. I could easily see them making some major moves to offset salary and restructure around Tatum when he returns.
Do they truly believe Tatum will be Tatum after this? Or will they make a run at Giannis Antetokounmpo or the next disgruntled star who becomes available? It seems wild now, but there are so many variables that could influence Tatum's fantasy value moving forward. And if we do know one thing, it's this: It will take a long time for us to find out.
What is Jaylen Brown's Value to the Celtics?
Assuming there aren't any major changes to this roster, Brown will now be asked to shoulder the load offensively. His usage rate has taken a slight hit over the last few years, but I fully expect that metric to climb back over the 30% threshold he was at in 2023. And that's a good thing for his fantasy value.
In that campaign, Brown averaged a career-high 26.6 points, 6.9 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.1 steals, and 2.4 threes on 49% from the field. He finished with a 31.1% usage rate, and that was with Tatum on the court. Strong enough to vault him inside the top 50 in per-game value for the second time in his career.
That was a different squad, but like I mentioned with Tatum, Boston has some really tough decisions to make this offseason when it comes to the roster. And if it doesn't make any big swings for another star, there is a good chance Brown is the ring leader for a less talented Celtics roster without their 1A on the court.
We could be in store for career numbers from Brown. While his fantasy skill set will likely never lead to top 30 production, it's hard to argue against the opportunity that is seemingly falling into his lap. I won't be the least bit surprised to see him sneak up draft boards come fall with late third-round value when all is said and done.
Is Payton Pritchard a Good Replacement for Jayson Tatum?
Bill Simmons said something on his podcast recently that made a lot of sense regarding Pritchard. While I don't have the direct quote, it was something to the tune of how some guys seem to play better when given more minutes, as opposed to being thrown out for shorter stints. Simmons labeled Pritchard as one of those guys. Well, Bill, I guess we're going to find out...
As things currently stand, it appears the stars are aligning for Pritchard to get his shot. Without Tatum, Boston will need points, and he can get them in a hurry. His 28.3 minutes per game off the bench this season weren't anything to scoff at, even with the Celtics' depth.
But the 10 games he played without Tatum this season gave us a glimpse of what he's capable of when given a larger role offensively. He averaged 19 points, 5.5 assists, 5.0 rebounds, 3.4 threes, and 15.2 shots per game on 47% from the field.
And a new career-high 39 PTS for Payton Pritchard 💪💪 https://t.co/GO8ArGfACc pic.twitter.com/iygnyOQmfM
— NBA (@NBA) March 6, 2025
He was a stream guy for most of the season due to his role, but assuming things stay relatively similar, I don't see a world in which he doesn't flirt with top 100 numbers next season.
In the 10 games that Tatum missed, Pritchard saw the biggest usage bump of any Celtic, so he could be walking into a hefty opportunity here. Expect an uptick in assists and threes, along with solid shooting splits, and, of course, those random spike games now and then.
Derrick White's Fantasy Basketball Value
White is about as elite a glue guy as they come. He doesn't wow you with anything, but his ability to block shots as a guard and knock down 3+ threes every night is what sets him apart. Even though Boston has to make some tough roster decisions, I don't anticipate White being made available in most scenarios. He's just too valuable.
While the majority of the Celtics' core rotation should be expected to see usage bumps without Tatum, I'm not sure it will amount to much in White's case. This is no knock. He is what he is. His fantasy value in Boston hasn't been dependent on high usage or scoring. This rings true in the eight games he played without Tatum this season, averaging 15.5 shots (up from 12.6), 5.7 assists (up from 4.6), and 4.6 threes (up from 3.5).
His counting stats will almost certainly get a boost, but with an ADP already hovering just outside the top 50 (and sooner in some leagues) over the last two years, any fringe improvements would already be baked into the cost.
The Rest of the Main Celtics' Values
There's a good chance that Holiday finds himself in the crosshairs of Boston's roster decisions this offseason. He's set to earn over $32 million next year and has seemingly lost a step or two over the last couple of seasons. It feels obvious that Boston will look his way to cut down salary.
That said, it's tough to predict what his fantasy outlook will be moving forward. Whatever the case may be, he fell outside of the top 100 in per-game value last season for the first time since his rookie year, according to Basketball Monster. His counting stats are a far cry from what they used to be, and I'm not confident he still has enough juice left to change my opinion of him post-Tatum injury.
He's trending toward more of a late-round pick with less upside at this point in his career.
Horford can be put in the same boat as Holiday. He has his moments, but he'll be 39 years old in less than a month, and it feels like he's winding down. He's been relegated to stream territory these days, and Tatum being out likely won't have much impact, if any.
Porzingis is set to make over $30 million next season on an expiring contract and, like Holiday, he will almost assuredly be one of the first guys moved this offseason. Through the injuries and the current sickness he's dealing with, it's tough to know what to make of him from a fantasy perspective going forward.
He'll be 30 years old this summer, and it feels like he doesn't have much left in the tank despite playing well when on the court. And that's just it, he's becoming too unreliable to fit Boston's updated timeline.
He possesses top 50 upside wherever he goes, but the availability concerns are real. And we saw how that played out last fall when his ADP was closer to 100 than it's ever been. If he remains in Boston, he'll remain an integral part of its game plan given his ability to stretch the floor and the defense. But the health risk makes him a risky pick inside the first eight rounds.
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