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Jeremy's mid-to-late round fantasy baseball sleepers and values from the AL East. His upside hitters and pitchers include Kristian Campbell, Bo Bichette, more.
The American League East is shaping up to be one of the most competitive divisions for the 2025 season. There is a real chance that all five teams finish at or above .500, which is a feat that hasn't been accomplished since the National League East in 2005.
There is a fair share of superstars from the AL East who are bound to be taken in the early rounds of fantasy drafts. However, there are plenty of players going in the middle and late rounds who can be a huge asset to fantasy teams, too.
There are many players that fit that description, but here are five in particular who represent the best value on each of their respective teams.
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Brandon Lowe, 2B, Tampa Bay Rays
ADP: 222
Brandon Lowe struggled with injuries again in 2024, playing only 107 games. However, he was productive when healthy, slashing .244/.311/.473 with 21 home runs, 58 RBI, and 56 runs. His 21 home runs were the third-most at the position and represent a 162-game pace of 31 homers.
That wasn't a fluke either, as he had a nearly identical 2023, where he hit 21 long balls in 109 games. That is very valuable, especially at a second base position that is very light with power. Despite this, he's being drafted outside of the top 200 as the 20th second baseman off the board.
The fact that he has consistently been a must-start player when healthy is already reason enough to draft him, but he is also getting a very favorable venue change. Due to damage to Tropicana Field, the Rays will be playing their home games at George M. Steinbrenner Field. This is the Yankees' spring training ballpark, which has identical dimensions to Yankee Stadium.
It's like déjà vu all over again!
Brandon Lowe with 𝓪𝓷𝓸𝓽𝓱𝓮𝓻 3-run blast! @RaysBaseball lead 6-1!#RaysUp pic.twitter.com/6V57EBIO5k
— FanDuel Sports Network Florida & Sun (@FanDuelSN_FL) October 2, 2021
This will allow him to take advantage of the infamous short porch in right field, as he did with the homer above on October 2, 2021. This was one of three home runs he hit in the game and brought his season total to 39 HR in 149 games. This was the last time we saw a fully healthy Lowe for a whole year, and it's clear that he still has that same upside.
He produced a .485 xSLG (91st percentile), 12.4 percent barrel rate (84th percentile), and 39.6 percent sweet-spot rate (94th percentile) in 2024. These metrics are all right in line, or in some cases better, than the metrics he put up in his elite 2021 season.
The slugger is being drafted way too late for someone with 30-homer power potential at the weakest position in fantasy. He has real top-5 upside if he plays for the full year. Even if he does get injured, his production when healthy will far outperform his current draft cost.
Ryan Mountcastle, 1B, Baltimore Orioles
ADP: 238
Ryan Mountcastle had a disappointing season in terms of power output in 2024, slashing .271/.308/.425 with 13 home runs, 63 RBI, and 54 runs in 124 games. His homer count has declined in three straight years after hitting 33 in 2021.
That can't all be blamed on Mountcastle since Camden Yards got some game-changing renovations prior to the 2022 season that involved moving the left-field wall back 30 yards. The slugger (or former slugger) actually had a better average exit velocity and hard-hit rate in 2024 than in 2021.
Baltimore is by far the worst home stadium for him, as he would have been expected to hit just 11 home runs if he played every game there last season. This is far less than most other stadiums in the league, with the most extreme difference coming when compared to Yankee Stadium. If he had played every game there, he would have hit 20 home runs.
The good news is that Camden Yards is getting another revamp prior to 2025. The Orioles must have felt bad for Mountcastle and all of the other right-handed hitters on their roster because they are moving the left-field wall back in. They aren't reverting it quite back to pre-2022 levels, but it will still be a significant change.
Orioles GM Mike Elias announced that they are changing the dimensions of the left field wall at Camden Yards.
Here is a rendering of the proposed changes ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/V30TN2e25m
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) November 15, 2024
Left field will still play deep compared to the league average, but it's not going to feel outright unfair to righties anymore. Not only will it turn a lot of former doubles off the wall or flyouts into home runs, but it should allow players like Mountcastle to feel more confident at the plate. Hitters are taught that pulling the ball in the air leads to good outcomes, and that simply wasn't the case for the past three years in Baltimore.
ATC is projecting him to hit 18 home runs in the upcoming season, but it wouldn't shock anyone if he soars past 20. With an ADP of 238, he makes for a great corner infielder or backup first baseman in fantasy.
Bo Bichette, SS, Toronto Blue Jays
ADP: 129
Bo Bichette fell off a cliff in 2024, slashing just .225/.277/.322 with four home runs, 31 RBI, 29 runs, and five stolen bases in 81 games. This was a complete shift for a consensus early-round hitter who had never batted below .290 in the first five years of his career.
He has been drafted in the third round or higher every year since 2021, and this one bad season has sent his ADP tumbling all the way down to Round 11. This is justified if the 2024 version of himself is just who he is now, but it's very unlikely that that's the case.
Bichette's strikeout, swing, whiff, and hard-hit rates were all nearly identical between 2023 and 2024, with the main difference being his barrel rate dropping from 9.7 percent to 4.1 percent. Since he was hitting the ball just as hard as before, the decline in barrels was due to hitting the ball at bad launch angles.
It's hard to believe that a player of his caliber would just suddenly lose his ability to hit the ball well, especially being only 26 years old. It's more likely that it's a side effect of playing through an injury. The shortstop dealt with a calf injury that flared up multiple times throughout the year, and it's likely he was trying to play through calf issues even when he was on the field. He is fully healthy heading into 2025 and is ready to get back on track.
The Bo Bichette 2025 Redemption Tour, coming to a stadium near you.pic.twitter.com/ntIiti7fXv
— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) March 2, 2025
Although he isn't known for his power, it's encouraging to see him get off to a hot start in the spring with an early homer. His real skill is typically his batting average, which is the hardest category to find later in drafts. If he returns to being a .290+ hitter with 20 home runs and double-digit steals, he will blow his 129 ADP out of the water. It's also important to note that this is a contract year for the youngster, so he will be extra motivated to stay on the field and produce.
Kristian Campbell, 2B, Boston Red Sox
ADP: 298
Kristian Campbell exploded onto the prospect scene in 2024, slashing .330/.439/.558 with 20 home runs, 77 RBI, 94 runs, and 24 stolen bases in 115 games between High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A. This earned him a spot as the No. 7 overall ranked prospect, according to MLB.com.
Despite trading for Alex Bregman to reportedly play second base, there is still belief that Campbell will be given the chance to earn the starting second base job. Bregman could start at third base while Rafael Devers shifts to DH.
Kristian Campbell gets his first hit of spring training!
Good to see him find a little confidence at the plate. #RedSox pic.twitter.com/ygPiyopbix
— Jack Lautaret (@JackLautaret) March 3, 2025
Not only did he showcase his dual power and speed threats last season, but he also put up an excellent 14.3 percent walk rate. If he did win the starting job, he would have some of the highest upside among second basemen, which is generally considered to be the weakest position in terms of fantasy.
With an ADP of 298, now is the perfect time to take a chance on him in drafts. A good spring would send his draft stock skyrocketing, so get in now while you can. Even if he does fail to make the Opening Day roster, he would instantly become the highest-priority prospect stash and still would be worth holding onto. ATC is currently only projecting him to get 244 at-bats but with a slash line of .261/.340/.418, which would be excellent for a rookie.
Clarke Schmidt, SP, New York Yankees
ADP: 230
Note: After this article was published, Schmidt began suffering from shoulder soreness that set him behind schedule in Spring Training. He may not be ready for his first start, but a lengthy absence isn't expected. I still view him as a solid late-round value.
The Yankees were the toughest team to choose a value pick from since many of their players are being drafted either in the early rounds or at a price that is very fair. Clarke Schmidt stands out as a player who is going late enough in drafts with some upside appeal that could lead to him outperforming his ADP.
Schmidt looked good in 2024, starting 16 games while posting a 2.85 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 93 strikeouts over 85.1 innings. He'll once again be locked into a rotation spot for the Yankees, which will hopefully lead to plenty of win opportunities. His 26.3 percent strikeout rate ranked in the 74th percentile, and his 5.9 percent barrel rate ranked in the 81st percentile.
Clarke Schmidt had 3 pitches with whiff rates of 29+% in 2024:
Curveball: 33.0%
Cutter: 32.2%
Sweeper: 29.7%— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) February 24, 2025
Those stats all look very promising, but his biggest weakness is his efficiency. Only two of his 16 starts were quality starts, due to those being the only two times he made it through at least six innings. He was effective in most of his starts, as can be seen by his sub-3.00 ERA, but only doing it for five innings at a time limits his production for fantasy.
The good news is that with an ADP of 230, his per-inning production makes him a good value at that pick, regardless of whether he starts pitching deeper into games or not. ATC is projecting him to put up a 3.91 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 129 strikeouts in 129 innings in 2025. He makes for a great fantasy bench arm to fill out your depth.
(He did give us a shoulder scare but reportedly felt "great" after throwing a 24-pitch bullpen session on March 17 and still has a goal of pitching for the Yanks on April 3.)
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