College Football Predictions: ESPN Capital One Bowl Mania Picks 2024

December 12, 2024

Our Mike Marteny lays out the confidence points in ESPN Capital One Bowl Mania for the 2024 bowl season. Compete with the reader's group to win premium access to our college football content for 2025!

ESPN's College Pick Em may have ended, but now we get Pick Em on steroids in the form of Capital One Bowl Mania. All you have to do is pick the winner of all 47 bowl and playoff games and assign a point value based on the confidence in each one of them from 1 to 47. The entry with the most points wins bragging rights with other RotoBaller readers....and FREE premium access to our college football content for the 2025 season. That includes access to the DFS optimizers and Discord chat to help with lineup decisions. Do I have your attention now? Join in on the fun here!

Opting out of bowl games has become all the rage lately, so make sure you stay on top of those developments here. Since the transfer portal is already open for the winter, you may see some transfers as well. That said, Oklahoma's Tawee Walker still played in the bowl game last year before transferring to Wisconsin.

Capital One Bowl Mania starts on December 14 and each game locks at kickoff. You can still move games around with others that haven't locked yet, which comes in handy since we have more playoff games without set matchups yet. It will make a big difference if Georgia ends up facing Indiana over Notre Dame! If you want to participate in the spread version of the game as well, that group is here, though there are no prizes besides the one ESPN offers.

ESPN Capital One Bowl Mania Preview

This article will be for the confidence game mode. You can also read my against-the-spread picks here every week for every game, so you know how I'm leaning toward that version of the game. If I move a game up or down, I will update on X/Twitter if I can and on here so long as it doesn't muddle up the article too much.

I haven't moved a lot of things around in recent years though, so that may be a viable option. Let's get to the countdown! I will count them up from least confident (1) to most (47). You know, for dramatic effect.

ESPN Capital One Bowl Mania Picks 2024

(1) Jackson State over South Carolina State

I don't know much about either of these teams so I'm not going to pretend like I do. It is also why I am leaving the selection this low. Both teams played FBS teams with no success. Jackson State lost to Louisiana-Monroe by 16. South Carolina State lost to Georgia Southern by 28. I'll take Jackson State, but there's a reason it's on the one-point line.

(2) Jacksonville State over Ohio

Rich Rodriguez is heading back to West Virginia. Drones are flying over New Jersey. SMU got in the playoff and Alabama didn't. If that doesn't signify the apocalypse, I don't know what does.

I'm keeping this low because we don't know how many players are following Rich to Morgantown. I'm probably flipping to Ohio. This was a price place to steal points. It's not anymore.

(3) Indiana over Notre Dame

This need to happen. pic.twitter.com/Brw8aR1XvU

— College Sports Only (@CollegeSportsO) December 9, 2024

Indiana is still a solid team, and this isn't that much of a road game. I'm trying to steal points here.

(4) Oregon over Tennessee/Ohio State

Oregon got a brutal draw. The Ducks just have to hope that the two teams beat each other up enough to give them a decided advantage.

(5) Iowa State over Miami (FL)

Cam Ward and Xavier Restrepo say they're playing. I have questions about whether Iowa State's offense can keep up, but that defense is the best one Miami has faced this year.

(6) Tennessee over Ohio State

If you look around on X, half of Knoxville will be in Columbus for this game. This just feels like a game that Tennessee wants more. Ohio State couldn't stop the Michigan run game. Dylan Sampson is better than every back on Michigan's team combined.

(7) East Carolina over North Carolina State

Kevin Concepcion is transferring, leaving a giant hole in an already anemic offense. The Pirates finished the season 4-1. I think they steal one here (at 25% of the public pick).

(8) Arizona State over Clemson/Texas

Cam Skattebo is a problem for either orange team. So is the Arizona State defense. If this is against Clemson and not Texas, I'm moving it up.

(9) Navy over Oklahoma

Jackson Arnold is transferring. Jalil Farooq and Nic Anderson are as well. The other four top receivers are still out. A lost season for Oklahoma gets worse. If Blake Horvath is out, I might change this, but I doubt it. I have no reason to think Oklahoma will win this game.

(10) Connecticut over North Carolina

The firing of Mack Brown has caused a lot of transfers for the Heels, but as of now, Omarion Hampton is playing. I highly doubt that will happen. If Hampton plays, I'll switch this. I'm picking as if he's sitting out.

(11) Miami (OH) over Colorado State

This is why Brett Gabbert came back from that devastating injury last year. I don't care if all of his receivers opt-out. This is Gabbert's game.

(12) Missouri over Iowa

Kaleb Johnson is opting out and preparing for the draft. Same with Luther Burden III. Missouri still has Brady Cook and both running backs. That should be enough against this incarnation of Iowa.

(13) Buffalo over Liberty

Buffalo is not a great team, but once again, Liberty is ravaged by transfers. QB Kaidon Salter and his best offensive lineman are leaving. Buffalo will have both CJ Ogbonna and Al-Jay Henderson.

(14) SMU/Penn State/Boise State over Indiana/Notre Dame/Georgia

I'm keeping this lower in case Gunner Stockton turns into that dude over the next fortnight. I will likely switch my pick and move it up if that's the case. I guess that's the good thing about the expanded playoffs. We still have time to move these around if some upsets happen in the playoff.

(15) Indiana/Notre Dame over Georgia

Assuming it's Penn State that makes it through, that's a bad matchup for a Georgia team that is forced to start a quarterback with one-half of experience. Gunner Stockton did his job, but Georgia can't lean on him to win a game like they did with Beck.

Carson Beck, going out injured this past Saturday, is not the curtain call he deserves. Many hated on him, trashed him, wanted him benched. He still played his heart out despite everything. He played it to the bone.

Thank you, Carson Beck. ❤️#GoDawgs    Forever a DGD! pic.twitter.com/Fx0FXuzZXb

— valerie (@Valthehbic) December 9, 2024

(16) SMU/Penn State over Boise State

If SMU pulls the upset, I'm flipping my pick. If not, Penn State is about as bad a matchup as it can get for Boise.

(17) Texas over Clemson

The public is heavy on Texas (91%), but what if Clemson is actually a good team? South Carolina was the hottest team down the stretch. Georgia beat Texas twice. They lost to a solid Louisville team. I'm being cautious with this one. Clemson has played well in the last six weeks or so (yes, even against South Carolina).

(18) Baylor over LSU

Hey, remember that hot Kansas team that ruined Iowa State and BYU. They needed a four-game winning streak to make a bowl game to send Devin Neal out the right way. That Kansas team? Remember? They completed three of those legs. Baylor left no doubt about the fourth. Kansas was playing almost as well as anyone and Baylor demolished them.

I guess Baylor didn't like Cinderella when they saw it. There wasn't going to be a fairy-tale ending on their watch. There won't be one for LSU either. Sawyer Robertson and Bryson Washington are really fun to watch!

(19) Colorado over BYU

Coach Prime says Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter would play in a Bowl game:

“No, we got a bowl game. It’s not the last time you’re gonna see them in a Buff uniform.” pic.twitter.com/BCGKxr6GPD

— DNVR Buffs (@DNVR_Buffs) November 26, 2024

For those who have followed Deion Sanders for his coaching career, this should come as no surprise. People didn't opt out in his day. He expects his guys to play too. His coaching style may not be for everyone, but his players would run through a wall for him. Colorado's not losing this game.

(20) Nebraska over Boston College

The Eagles moved on from Thomas Castellanos, but they haven't been any better off. Nebraska defensive coordinator Tony White is off to Tallahassee and many defensive players are following. Most of the offense is still there. I believe we'll see a different Nebraska after a month of practice.

(21) Texas Tech over Arkansas

As long as Tahj Brooks plays, this is an easy one for Tech. I might move this up if Brooks is confirmed to play before the game.

(22) Vanderbilt over Georgia Tech

When you think about it, these two teams had a huge impact on the college football playoff. The loss of Eric Singleton Jr. (portal) for the Bees is going to hurt. Most of what got Vanderbilt here is playing in the bowl game.

(23) Texas A&M over USC

Miller Moss is transferring. So is Conner Weigman. Neither will be missed. Le'Veon Moss will be missed out of the A&M backfield if he's unable to go, but they're still a better team than USC.

(24) Bowling Green over Arkansas State

? ??? ????????? ?????? ?? ??? ???? ?

Harold Fannin Jr. is just the second TE in FBS history to be named a league's Offensive Player of the Year. He is the 10th Falcon to win the award, which is tops in MAC history ?#ToTheMoon ?? pic.twitter.com/KpIoWHEdNx

— BGSU Football (@BG_Football) December 5, 2024

Terion Stewart is transferring for the Falcons, but star TE Harold Fannin Jr. is expected to play for the Falcons. That's good enough for me!

(25) Texas State over North Texas

Ismail Mahdi is transferring for the Bobcats, but Jordan McCloud is expected to play. That's all I needed to hear. The Mean Green defense is not built to stop a player like McCloud.

(26) Minnesota over Virginia Tech

The Gophers played well down the stretch. We would be hard-pressed to find any stretch where the Hokies played well. Both Collin Schlee and Kyron Drones are still hurt and aren't expected to play. However, we're still three weeks away from the game. Minnesota can stop Bhayshul Tuten if there is no threat to throw the ball.

(27) Penn State over SMU

Drew Allar doesn't make mistakes and Penn State finally realized what a good duo of running backs they have. Add in a stout defense and they might make short work of the Ponies.

(28) Alabama over Michigan

The trickle of opt-outs in Ann Arbor has been noticeable over the last few days. Bama is going to be nearly at full strength. I was going to move this down just in case Michigan showed up, but there may not be a lot of players to show up by the time this game gets here.

(29) Northern Illinois over Fresno State

This promises to be one of the worst bowl games on the schedule. Both starting quarterbacks are transferring. Fresno's leading rusher and two of the three leading receivers are leaving. Trayvon Rudolph is also leaving NIU. Josh Hoist was okay with Ethan Hampton out this year, but Gavin Williams is the best player on the field. NIU still wins this. Maybe by a lot.

(30) Georgia Southern over Sam Houston

I like Sam Houston, but this team isn't going to look anywhere near what it was in the regular season. K.C. Keeler was hired as Temple's head coach and just about everyone is leaving. The Bearkats will be down five starting defenders, all four running backs, and their starting quarterback. That's just so far. We still have a week before the game!

(31) Western Kentucky over James Madison

Hey! We've seen this movie before. Just last year, in fact.

Western Kentucky QB Caden Veltkamp entered the transfer portal; he passed for 3,218 yards and 28 TD during his time with the Hilltoppers @crveltkamp pic.twitter.com/bn5hFZOTS4

— FarrellPortal (@farrellportal) December 10, 2024

Veltkamp entered the portal but dressed for the bowl game. He came in down 28-0 and led a comeback victory over Old Dominion. UPDATE: He's doing it all again this year. Veltkamp will start this game, so I'm flipping it to WKU.

Alonza Barnett III is not expected to be available for the Dukes, but they have former Washington quarterback Dylan Morris. He's the guy that Michael Penix Jr. replaced in Seattle. Morris hasn't played much since 2021, but he at least has experience.

(32) Cotton Bowl winner over Orange Bowl winner

The Cotton Bowl is the Oregon/Tennessee/Ohio State pod again.

(33) Oregon/Tennessee/Ohio State over Clemson/Texas/Arizona State

The Oregon/Tennessee/Ohio State pod is the toughest pod of the playoffs. I feel comfortable putting that one here. It also leaves me a chance to gain some extra points if I need to move things around, depending on how the standings are shaping up.

(34) Pittsburgh over Toledo

The Rockets lost to Akron in the last game of the regular season. For context, Akron has won 11 games combined in the last six years. Four of those were this year. Toledo can't run the ball and can't stop the run. That's a bad combination against a team like Pitt.

Keep an eye on the status of Eli Holstein for Pitt. Nate Yarnell is transferring. If Holstein can't go, I'll have to re-evaluate this game. I'll still be picking Pitt, but I won't have nearly as many points on it.

(35) San Jose State over South Florida

I was a big USF fan coming into the season and it was all because of Byrum Brown. He's still not expected to play in this game. If that's the case, USF has no chance. If Brown plays, I'm probably moving this one down.

(36) UTSA over Coastal Carolina

The Chanticleers have their top two quarterbacks, top three running backs, and three receivers in the portal so far. This is a road game for UTSA, but Coastal will be a shadow of what it was in the regular season -- which wasn't that good to begin with. Owen McCown should be in for a monster game here.

(37) UNLV over California

Nyziah Hunter and Fernando Mendoza are opting out after a disappointing season at Cal. UNLV will have most of its Mountain West runner-up squad on hand including Hajj-Malik Williams. This could get ugly.

(38) TCU over Louisiana

There's a good chance that the Cajuns will be without both quarterbacks who played this year and TCU is coming in at full strength. If that holds, I might move this even higher.

(39) Kansas State over Rutgers

Rutgers made strides this year, but there's a case to be made that K-State was the best team in the Big 12 (16) for much of the year. They lost a game to Houston that they shouldn't have. Aside from that, it was a solid year for the Wildcats. Solid should be enough in this case.

(40) Florida over Tulane

The Gators were one of the hottest teams down the stretch with freshman DJ Lagway taking over. Honestly, the return of Montrell Johnson Jr. in November may have been just as important. The Gators have a 1-2 punch with Johnson and freshman Jadan Baugh that makes the backfield a force again.

BREAKING: Tulane transfer quarterback Darian Mensah has committed to Duke!

He is the #1 ranked player in the portal. pic.twitter.com/wYTwhSUpEl

— Blue Devils (@BlueDevils) December 11, 2024

Starting QB Darian Mensah is transferring to Duke. Ty Thompson threw 11 passes this year and Kai Horton threw one. That's not much depth. The silver lining for Tulane is that Horton started a couple of games for Tulane last year. Thompson is more talented, but Horton has the experience.

It doesn't really matter to me who starts at QB for Tulane. Florida's defense is good enough to contain Makhi Hughes and make the Wave try to win through the air. It won't end well.

(41) Memphis over West Virginia

The Mountaineers were a trendy pick for Big 12 (16) sleepers at the beginning of the season. They were sleepers, all right. They were so asleep they never woke up. That resulted in the firing of Neal Brown. As often happens, there is a mass exodus out of Morgantown with the coach fired. Josiah Trotter is the biggest name to leave so far, but there are expected to be more.

So far, most of the offense is still intact, but is that a good thing? The Memphis defense is an issue, but I expect Seth Henigan to go out on top here. I liked Memphis before the coaching change for West Virginia. I like them even more now.

(42) South Alabama over Western Michigan

Fluff Bothwell is transferring, but South Alabama will have most of the rest of the team back. WMU is the worst bowl team out there. I might move this up even more.

(43) Mississippi over Duke

Maalik Murphy is transferring out. Darian Mensah is already hanging with the Cameron Crazies, but he won't be in uniform for this one. Duke's defense is good enough to make this difficult if the Rebs show up flat, but I don't know how they win this with Henry Belin IV at quarterback.

(44) Louisville over Washington

Washington didn't win a road game all season and lost a "road" game in their home city at Lumen Field. This game isn't at Husky Stadium...

(45) Syracuse over Washington State

This could be a higher-scoring game, but Washington State's defense fell apart toward the end of the year. John Mateer is very talented, but he can't do it all himself. The Orange finished strong and are heading in the right direction under Fran Brown.

(46) Army over Marshall

You got to love this. These young men knew their Head Coach was done wrong. He Took them to the championship won it you fire him. pic.twitter.com/OeFfzuPTee

— Luther Luke Campbell (@unclelukereal1) December 11, 2024

Yes, Marshall is a strong team and they finished the regular season/conference championship with three unlikely wins. Then the coach left in what can be best described as a lateral move. Most of the team is going with him. As for Army, there will be no opt-outs. There will be no transfers. It will just be a team that shows up to be the best they can be.

(47) South Carolina over Illinois

There’s only been four 10+ win seasons in South Carolina history. Shane Beamer is well aware of that and he’s made that know to his players as well.

As of this evening, he says that no one has told him that they plan on opting out of the bowl game. However, there are some guys…

— Mike Uva (@Mike_Uva) December 9, 2024

The Gamecocks understand what a 10-win season would mean to the football program. Players are opting in, not out. They want to be a part of this. They're not coming back for the bowl game to be one of the best ever 9-4 teams. South Carolina finishes with that 10th win. There's a reason that this has one of the highest spreads of the bowl games.

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