Fantasy Baseball Prospect Risers (Week 22) - Rookies to Stash and Top Performers

Andy's fantasy baseball prospect sleepers and risers to know for Week 22 (2024). He analyzes MLB prospects in the minor leagues and their recent performances.

We are officially in the second half of the season, and several top prospects have gotten off to a hot start in the minor leagues and begun to earn promotions. Some of these prospects can carry this success into the big leagues and become viable fantasy baseball contributors.

However, the question is, do these minor-league performances truly matter for this season? How easy will it be for these prospects to reach the big leagues, and are they worth stashing on your redraft roster?

Knowing which prospects to watch can put you ahead of your league mates and in the driver’s seat during the second half of the season. Adding the right prospect can fill the missing piece on your roster and set you up for a fantasy championship. This fantasy baseball prospects biweekly series will examine a few key players in the minor leagues and assess whether they have a path to fantasy stardom in 2024.

Bubba Chandler, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh No. 1, Overall 41

The top prospect in the Pittsburgh system recently earned the call to Triple-A and has been nothing short of spectacular.

Through his first two games at Triple-A Indianapolis, Chandler has logged 13 innings to the tune of a perfect ERA with a minuscule 0.77 WHIP and a 3:17 BB:K ratio. During this limited sample size, he boasts an incredible 1.58 FIP.

Bubba Chandler made his Triple A debut last night. 7 innings = No runs allowed. 2 hits, 6 strikeouts. pic.twitter.com/6GAzKDLha0

— Bob Pompeani (@KDPomp) August 10, 2024

The southpaw opened the campaign at Double-A and held a solid 3.70 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and a 26:94 BB:K ratio across 80 ⅓ innings of work. Under the hood, Chandler held a 3.31 FIP, which aligned with his 3.36 xFIP. His 21.2% K-BB% was the best mark of his career, where he spent more than 50 innings during a specific stint.

Last summer, the former third-round pick spent the vast majority of the season at High-A Greensboro and held a 4.75 ERA and 1.50 WHIP through 106 frames. Here he held a career-low 25.6% K rate and a 4.48 xFIP.

Seeing how well Chandler has continued to develop against tougher competition at Double-A and how comfortable he has looked in the top level of the minor league, a 2024 debut is not out of the question.

While the Pirates have fallen a bit out of the wild card race, a small hot stretch can get them back into the hunt. Jared Jones (lat) has begun a rehab assignment but will likely need at least two more appearances before returning to the big leagues. Chandler will get the call if the Pirates need another spark to their rotation.

Verdict: Stash in deeper redraft leagues

Moises Ballesteros, 1B/C, Chicago Cubs

Chicago No. 4, Overall 44

The Chicago Cubs first base/catching prospect has been one of the biggest risers in prospect rankings this summer.

Ballesteros opened the season at Double-A Tennessee and logged 56 games with a strong .299/.372/.495 line, nine home runs, 43 RBI, and a 22:33 BB:K ratio. Then, he joined Triple-A Iowa where he currently sits with a .272/.331/.481 line, eight round-trippers, 20 RBI, and a 14:36 BB:K ratio through his first 41 games.

Last summer, he got his first full taste of the minor leagues, spending most of 2022 in the Rookie league. In 2023, at Single and High-A, the 20-year-old held a cumulative .285/.374/.449 line with 14 home runs and 64 RBI. 

Ballesteros boasted a career-best 152 wRC+ at Double-A this summer and a stellar 14.8% K rate. While at Triple-A, his K rate increased slightly to 20.4%, and his wRC+ dropped to 103. He holds a near identical walk rate (9.9%—8.4%) and BABIP (.314 - .304).

Matt Shaw (MLB No. 25) and Moises Ballesteros (MLB No. 44) go back-to-back!

The pair of @Cubs prospects raise their OPS to .889 and .815, respectively, with their latest dingers for the Triple-A @IowaCubs: pic.twitter.com/10F3B82ghx

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) August 17, 2024

However, does this strong production really matter for 2024? Ballesteros now ranks as the No. 4 prospect in the Chicago system and 44th overall in the sport on MLB.com, a stark contrast to his previous position, when he sat just inside the top-100 ranking a few months ago.

The Cubs are still in the heat of the wild card race despite their inconsistencies, and their production behind the plate has been underwhelming at best. There could be a path where the Cubs are looking for the final spark in the lineup down the stretch, and Ballesteros might be the name that is called upon.

Verdict: Continue To Monitor, On Track For 2025 Debut

Quinn Mathews, SP, St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis No. 3, Overall 85

Rounding out this list is a familiar name to readers of my column this summer. Quinn Mathews has been one of, if not the best, arm in the minor leagues all summer and has yet to slow down.

The fourth-round selection in last year’s draft made his pro debut this summer at Single-A and has already made his way up to Double-A.

At Single-A, the southpaw logged 30 ⅔ innings with a 1.47 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, and an 11:52 BB:K ratio. Then, the Stanford product posted a 2.68 ERA and 0.76 WHIP at High-A Peoria with a strong 9:58 BB:K ratio.

Since joining Double-A, Mathews has posted a strong 2.42 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 14:58 BB:K ratio in 44 ⅔ innings of work.

Quinn Mathews’ final line:

7 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 11 K

Pure domination tonight from Mathews. It was his 6th game this year in which he struck out 10 or more hitters, leading minor league baseball. pic.twitter.com/xRDJodl25U

— Kareem (@KareemSSN) August 18, 2024

While his production has remained incredibly stable, let’s look at his underlying numbers to see where the left-hander has improved.

While his K rate has decreased at Double-A, he holds a 34.8% FB rate (fly ball) compared to a higher 38.9% rate he posted at High-A. Even though he is not generating as many whiffs, he is instead keeping the ball on the ground, which is a good sign.

More importantly, he has maintained a very similar BABIP and FIP through all three levels, which shows that despite his strikeout production dropping, he is still inducing favorable contact.

Similar to Ballesteros, Mathews could get the call late in September if his team remains competitive, but given that he debuted this season at Single-A, there may be an outside chance.

Nonetheless, Mathews is making a case to be treated as one of the best arms in the minor leagues, and redraft managers should not forget his name going into 2025, as he should be in line to debut then.

Verdict: Continue To Monitor, On Track For 2025 Debut

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