RADIO
Which players being touted as breakouts should you avoid in fantasy football this season? Andrew Ball breaks down three players set to disappoint in 2024.
Zay Flowers, WR - Baltimore Ravens
Zay Flowers red zone target share:
25% - Mark Andrews off the field
15% - Mark Andrews on the field https://t.co/isi7a9ZBlD— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) July 3, 2024
Flowers’ upside is limited, and he could be more of a weekly boom-or-bust option week to week. Alongside a lack of consistency, this prevents him from breaking out in Year Two.
Brock Bowers, TE - Las Vegas Raiders
Thank you, Sam LaPorta. You’ve completely ruined how we view and project rookie tight ends going forward. We witnessed LaPorta break rookie records in Detroit. Now, one of the greatest college tight ends of all time enters the NFL.
Bowers is the only player to win the John Mackey Award twice, which is given annually to the nation’s best tight end and there was zero question that he would be the first tight end off of the board in April’s 2024 NFL Draft.
Did LaPorta begin a new trend of rookie tight ends being fantasy assets? Or will we have to wait the usual season or two to see tight ends reach their potential? The latter is more likely, especially given Bowers’ destination.
Bowers joins Michael Mayer in the Las Vegas tight end room. Mayer was a second-round pick in 2023, but saw just 40 targets, despite starting 12 of the 14 games he suited up. Both men will be tasked with blocking for their run-focused head coach, Antonio Pierce. That’s how the Raiders won games to secure Pierce the permanent head coaching title. Zamir White averaged 21 carries in the final four games of the season while the Raiders won three out of those four contests.
The passing attack is less than inspiring. Aidan O'Connell and Gardner Minshew II are competing in training camp to be the starting quarterback. Minshew would likely be better for the fantasy football outlooks of the pass catchers, but O’Connell appears to be the leading candidate at this juncture, but the second-year signal caller ranked 32nd in catchable pass rate last season.
Whether it was Jimmy Garoppolo or O'Connell under center in 2023, the Raiders had a concentrated target share. Davante Adams finished second in the league in targets (175) and target share (33.1%). Jakobi Meyers earned 100+ targets and running back Josh Jacobs was third with 54.
Where will the targets for Bowers come from? Adams’ share will likely come down, but he’ll need to be heavily involved to stay happy and he remains the best receiver for the Raiders. Meyers is locked into the No. 2 role. For those who select Bowers as their TE1 based on his all-world talent, expect to be scouring waiver wire lists to find fantasy points early in the season at the tight end spot.
Dontayvion Wicks, WR - Green Bay Packers
The advanced metrics point to Wicks being a great receiver in the NFL for years to come. He tallied 2.06 fantasy points per target (18th), 2.07 yards per route run (24th), 10 yards per target (11th), and a 54.5% route win rate (10th). Those are outstanding marks for a part-time player.
WRs drafted in the 5th Round that posted 2.00+ YPRR on 40+ targets as a Rookie and played less than 40% in the slot since 2007:
Puka Nacua
Dontayvion Wicks
Tyreek Hill— Fusue (@DevyEusuf) May 5, 2024
That’s the unfortunate part for Wicks. He’s a part of what may be the deepest wide receiver room in the league and will likely continue to be a part-time player. Wicks, Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, and Bo Melton all showed flashes of upside in 2023. Doubs is the most consistent of the group. Reed has touches manufactured for him, including attempts out of the backfield. Watson is the deep ball threat and, hopefully, he’s figured out his hamstring issues. Where does that leave Wicks, who could open the season as the fourth option in the passing game?
Wicks finished as the WR58 in PPR formats. The fifth-round pick never had more than seven targets in any game and ended the season with 581 yards on 39 receptions. He was not rostered in standard-sized redraft leagues for the majority of the season. For as much buzz as he’s seeing, his ADP (63rd WR) is currently below where he finished his rookie season.
Is Wicks still worth the late-round selection? Absolutely. At that cost, he’s free and can be exchanged for a waiver wire wonder if he doesn’t pan out. However, the path to him breaking out is too crowded without injuries in Green Bay at this moment in time. The Packers also roster two young tight ends, Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft, who are both brimming with potential. Josh Jacobs, who the team paid this offseason, will be utilized as the team's feature back. The offense will be balanced, and the target share will be diluted, which could lead to a lower pace of play.
While the potential for Wicks is there, a lot of things need to break right for him to be a big-time fantasy asset in 2024.
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