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Potential fantasy football running back sleepers for 2024 Superflex drafts. Dave Ventresca details why you should target said players in Superflex leagues.
If you’ve ever played in a Superflex fantasy football league, then you know the importance of quarterbacks in this format. However, this does not mean other positions have no value.
Just like any other draft, there are always sleepers available. We value running back sleepers highly in other formats due to the nature of the position. Superflex leagues are no different. With quarterbacks being pushed up the board, we get even better running back prices compared to traditional single-quarterback leagues. Managers can find some terrific values if they're looking in the right places. Today, we will use Superflex ADP (average draft position) to identify several running back sleepers.
Make sure you follow RotoBaller on X and check out RotoBaller.com for all your fantasy football needs. Here are five running back sleepers for Superflex fantasy football leagues.
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Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers - Sleeper ADP: 89.7, Overall: RB23
Harris’s backfield mate, Jaylen Warren, has been a popular breakout candidate this year. It’s understandable as Warren finished higher than Harris in numerous running back metrics. I even listed Warren as a potential breakout candidate earlier this summer for RotoBaller. It felt like this was the year the Steelers would move away from Harris in favor of the clearly superior Warren. However, that might not necessarily be the case. There is data suggesting Harris is a better schematic fit with new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith’s system.
Pittsburgh Steelers [Last 2 Years]
Zone Concept Runs
Najee: 4.10 YPC
Warren: 3.91 YPCMan Concept Runs
Najee: 3.67 YPC
Warren: 6.74 YPCMan Concept RB Run Rate (2023)
Steelers: 17th (44%)
Arthur Smith's Falcons: 31st (31%) https://t.co/uIorSsZs1r— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) June 18, 2024
This certainly bodes well for Harris assuming he maintains the lead role. While Warren did finish better than Harris in a variety of metrics, it’s not exactly like Harris was a slouch. Among 49 running backs with 90+ carries, Harris finished:
6th in BT% (broken tackle percentage), per RotoWire
8th in MTF (missed tackles forced), per Fantasy Points Data Suite
10th in EXP Run% (explosive run percentage), per Fantasy Points Data Suite
14th in RYOE (rush yards over expected), per Next Gen Stats
Harris still carries risk in that he could eventually lose his job to the more effective Warren. However, Harris is the better fit for Arthur Smith’s run-blocking scheme and is coming off a strong season despite what some of his raw stats suggest. If he’s given the necessary volume, Harris can be a bargain relative to his cost. Warren’s presence will always be a threat. Luckily, that risk is baked into Harris’s ADP.
Devin Singletary, RB, New York Giants - Sleeper ADP: 117.3, Overall: RB33
Singletary enjoyed arguably his best season as a pro in 2023.
DEVIN SINGLETARY TOUCHDOWN pic.twitter.com/QS41BVyCeu
— NFL Retweet (@NFLRT) November 19, 2023
He set a career high in rushing yards and graded out fairly well in a few metrics. Among 49 backs with 90+ carries, he finished a respectable 23rd in RYOE and 19th in Pro Football Focus’s (PFF) Rushing Grade. Singletary isn’t the most talented back out there, but he’s a savvy veteran with good vision and a decisive running style. His new situation with the Giants is not as good as it was with Houston last year. However, New York has seemingly pegged him as its Saquon Barkley replacement, and Singletary is in line for a starter's workload. He’s a fine option if you take a Zero RB approach, as he should return back-end RB2 production once again this year.
Brian Robinson Jr., RB, Washington Commanders - Sleeper ADP: 129.3, Overall: RB36
Robinson and free-agent addition Austin Ekeler are currently expected to split touches in Washington’s backfield. Despite this, Ekeler is the preferred option among gamers and is going nearly 22 picks earlier than Robinson. This is happening despite Robinson finishing higher than Ekeler in RYOE, MTF, EXP Run %, PFF’s Rushing Grade, PFF’s Elusive Rating, and Fantasy Points Data Suite’s Yards After Contact Per Attempt (YACO/ATT).
So, we are drafting a 29-year-old back coming off the worst year of his career whose metrics all signal he’s in decline over a 25-year-old back coming off his best season as a professional? What are we doing here?
Ekeler traditionally has been a great pass-catching back, but he wasn’t really better than Robinson in that area last year, either.
Ekeler:
8.5 yards per reception
5.9 yards per target
1.40 YPRR
1 receiving touchdown
Robinson:
10.2 yards per reception
8.6 yards per target
1.89 YPRR
4 receiving touchdowns
No, this does not suggest Robinson is going to morph into an elite pass-catching back. That’s just not his skill set. But it does mean these backs might not be that different in this area in terms of potential fantasy production.
There is really no good reason to draft Ekeler over Robinson other than name value. Robinson is not a perfect back, but he’s not exactly terrible, either. Robinson is Washington’s best option at the moment. He could also see a boost in efficiency playing alongside dual-threat rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels.
Fresh off a PPR RB21 finish, Robinson should be considered the preferred pick from this backfield. He’s a fine flex play or bench depth option with room for more if he can firmly establish himself as the lead back in this offense.
Jerome Ford, RB, Cleveland Browns - Sleeper ADP: 143.7, Overall: RB42
After starting rusher Nick Chubb suffered a gruesome-looking knee injury in a Week 2 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers last year, Ford took over as the team’s lead back. It was a solid campaign as he eclipsed 1,100 scrimmage yards and finished as the PPR RB16.
Jerome Ford (4)
Cleveland Browns
69 yards
pic.twitter.com/H7lenbvlcT— NFL TD Videos (@NFLTDsVideos) October 22, 2023
Ford wasn’t necessarily the most consistent fantasy producer in 2023. He only finished 25th in PPR points per game and 26th in half-PPR points per game. Volume was on his side, though, and he provided gamers with 12 top-24 finishes.
Chubb is still recovering from his injury, and it’s unclear when he will return to the field. Should he miss time, Ford is again set up for lead-back duties. He is a fine RB2 play early in the season while Chubb is out. Even if Chubb is cleared sooner than expected, he most likely won’t have a full starter’s workload and Ford will carry standalone value. Either way, Ford is going to have a role to begin the season. He's a good option for managers who wait on running backs and are looking for a fast start.
Jaleel McLaughlin, RB, Denver Broncos - Sleeper ADP: 179.9, Overall: RB52
McLaughlin flashed big-time upside in limited action as a rookie. PFF graded him as its 16th-highest rusher, and he also finished seventh in PFF’s Elusive Rating. Among backs with 65 attempts, McLaughlin finished fifth in MTF/ATT. There is a lot to like about the second-year back heading into the 2024 season.
TOUCHDOWN BRONCOS! 🙌🏼🔥
The Rookie Jaleel McLaughlin gets in! 😎
7-0 Denver, 6:14 left in the 1st quarter 🏈#NFL #BroncosCountry
pic.twitter.com/sFuwCZwDDa— The Sports Forum CO (@SportsForumCO) September 17, 2023
Running backs have always been heavily involved in head coach Sean Payton’s offense. After a disappointing season from Javonte Williams, McLaughlin may command more touches this year. If he can carve out a Reggie Bush/Darren Sproles-type role, he will be a huge asset in PPR leagues.
Much like last offseason, though, McLaughlin is already turning heads.
#Broncos HC Sean Payton on Jaleel McLaughlin:
“He’s here at 5:15, even in the offseason. First one here, running in the weight room, and by the time he’s at breakfast and most people are arriving, he’s put in a good hour and a half’s worth of work. It’s just the way he’s wired,… pic.twitter.com/qMk17cfd6h
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) June 5, 2024
He is the exact type of player who can help you win your league if he hits. Draft him and reap the rewards.
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