Fantasy Baseball Sleepers or Busts? Cristian Javier, Anthony Santander, Aaron Nola

While many fantasy baseball drafts have already concluded, there are plenty of fantasy gamers who opt to wait until the last second to ensure they have the latest available information. We have you covered with some potential sleeper and bust picks.

Aaron Nola, Cristian Javier, and Anthony Santander are all interesting fantasy targets this year, so all three are worth diving into for last-minute draft preparation.

Should you draft Nola, Javier, or Santander in fantasy baseball? Read the draft recommendations and 2024 fantasy outlooks for each player below.

 

Aaron Nola Fantasy Baseball Value

BALLER MOVE: Target in drafts ~pick 47
Current ADP: ~pick 48

Analysis: One of the biggest moves the Phillies made this offseason was re-signing Aaron Nola to a seven-year, $72 million deal in November. Unsurprisingly, Nola, who's placed within the top 10 in NL Cy Young voting three times during his nine-year career, elected to remain with the team that drafted him back in 2015. Although the 30-year-old right-hander has struggled with the long ball in recent years — surrendering 77 of them in 96 starts since 2021 — he's still kept walks to a minimum and fanned 660 batters in 579.1 frames of work.

Aaron Nola’s 4 Strikeout outing against the Toronto Blue Jays. pic.twitter.com/4f1Kiq6Zrt

— Phillies Tailgate (@PhilsTailgate) March 24, 2024

He's one of the most durable starters in the sport and having him and Zack Wheeler atop their starting rotation has worked out well for Philadelphia. ATC projects Nola to pitch to a 3.90 ERA and 1.12 WHIP across 189 innings while striking out 197 batters. His ADP of around 48 is a safe bet, although he may get selected higher.

 

Cristian Javier Fantasy Baseball Value

BALLER MOVE: Target in drafts ~pick 176
Current ADP: ~pick 161

Analysis: Cristian Javier transformed from a swingman into a bona fide frontline starter in 2022, posting a 2.54 ERA in 148.2 innings for Houston. The peripherals supported his performance as well, with Javier boasting a 2.43 xERA, 3.16 FIP, and monster 11.74 K/9 that season. He was considered a top-20 starter coming into 2023 but regressed in every sense of the word. His ERA jumped two runs to 4.56, his 4.58 FIP suggests he earned the spike, and his strikeout rate cratered to 8.83 K/9.

Primarily a two-pitch pitcher, Javier enjoyed unsustainable performances with slider and fastball in 2022. He had a .234 BABIP with his fastball and a .195 BABIP with his slider in 2022, but a .258 BABIP on the fastball and .267 BABIP on the slider last season. It wasn't just regression to the mean that caused this either, as Javier lost an inch of break and an inch of drop on his slider in 2023. While Javier had a 16.9% swinging strike rate and 28.6% chase rate with his slider in 2022, he had just a 10.2% swinging strike rate and 21.5% chase rate in 2023, pitiful by comparison.

One can't expect another 33.2% strikeout rate season with metrics like that, and the underlying metrics did not support the 2022 strikeout rate that season. Javier not only lost something on his slider, but his fastball velocity dipped from 93.8 MPH to 92.7 MPH in 2023. While he can likely perform better than a 4.56 ERA, 2022 seems like the outlier season and one should expect an ERA in the 3.50-4 range with a below-average strikeout rate. He projects as a bust at his current ADP.

 

Anthony Santander Fantasy Baseball Value

BALLER MOVE: Target in drafts ~pick 122
Current ADP: ~pick 120

Analysis: Anthony Santander was one of many great stories on the 2023 Baltimore Orioles, slashing .257/.325/.472 with 28 HR and five steals across 656 PAs. Unfortunately, fantasy managers shouldn't bet on a repeat at his current ADP of 144.08. Santander doesn't have tremendous raw power as evidenced by his 94.5 mph average airborne exit velocity and 10.2% rate of Brls/BBE, instead producing power numbers through his 49.7 FB% and tons of PAs. Camden Yards is now a pitcher's park, punishing guys with middling raw pop like Santander.

Santander's approach also presents a batting average risk. His .299 BABIP in 2023 was fairly high considering his 18.2 IFFB% and 15.3 LD%, with his .235 xBA likely representing a better average projection for 2024. Similarly, Santander's 8.4 BB% and 23.2 K% mask a 37.7% chase rate that pitchers will certainly try to exploit in 2024. The 29-year-old will probably approach 25 HR again, but that alone isn't worth getting excited about. He's a fine pick at ADP, but he has limited upside.

Tony got ALL of that one. pic.twitter.com/OPZiromnL5

— Baltimore Orioles (@Orioles) March 23, 2024

 

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