DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The PLAYERS Championship With Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Jordan Spieth, Max Homa, Sam Burns, Brian Harman and More Golf Advice (2024)

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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The PLAYERS Championship

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PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The PLAYERS Championship

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (265-194-25) 57.73%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (518-361-71) 58.93%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 42
• Units: +327.863 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2024
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time round four comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (253-167-46) 60.24%
• Click here to see an example

First-Round Leader Article

• Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
• Click here to see an example

One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
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Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

• We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

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Field

Field Size: 144
Cut: Top 65 & Ties
Top 20 Entrants: 18

 

Last Five Winners Of The PLAYERS Championship

2023	Scottie Scheffler	-17
2022	Cameron Smith	-13
2021	Justin Thomas	-14
2020	Rory McIrloy	-16
2019	Webb Simpson	-18

 

Expected Cut-Line 

2023	3
2022	3
2021	1
2020	0
2019	0

 

TPC Sawgrass

7,189 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bermuda (Overseeded Rye - Think of your Bent/Poa mixtures)

TPC Sawgrass has always been a challenging course to handicap. You don't have to look any further than the erratic course history of every golfer in the field to realize the volatility is heightened at the venue. Nevertheless, the move from May to March a few years ago has provided more predictably since the facility was always best suited to be played in colder weather conditions.

The summer temperature in May gave us a Bermuda surface that was still dormant (but playable) from the winter and created this fiery test that made stopping your irons on these smaller-than-average greens nearly impossible. The fast/lightning surface we have become accustomed to over the years will still be in play, but more of where I am going with this is that the Bermuda grass gets overseeded on all parts of the course, creating much softer landing areas that should allow shot-shaping and control with your irons from anywhere on the track.

Strokes gained around the green will still be amplified because of the smaller putting surfaces, but it is hard to weigh properly since shaved run-off areas allow multiple options to be considered when attempting to get up and down. There are 17 holes with water and 88 bunkers that are put into place to cause havoc, and while the rough is anything but penal, the Pete Dye nature will cause a handful of forced lay-ups for the field. Golfers who can be creative, salvage par, avoid critical mistakes and control their irons will be most equipped to find success at this grueling test.

 

Let's Look At The Stats

Stat	Sawgrass	PGA Average
Driving Distance	278	283
Driving Accuracy	62%	61%
GIR Percentage	62%	65%
Scrambling Percentage	53%	57%
Average Three-Putts Per Round	0.63	0.54

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Weighted Strokes Gained: Total (30%)

 

Strokes Gained Total - TPC + Pete Dye (10%)

 

Strokes Gained Total - Short Par 72s (10%)

Strokes Gained Total - Fast But Soft Greens (10%)

 

Weighted Scrambling (20%)

 

Weighted Scoring (20%)

Total Number Of Top-10's Out Of The Six Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on X.

 

First Look Into Outright Bets

Outright	Odds	Unit Risk	Potential Win
Sam Burns	40	0.24	9.6
Jordan Spieth	40	0.18	7.2
Max Homa	33	0.22	7.26
Brian Harman	70	0.11	7.7

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

 

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are five players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter/X.

I'd like to see where ownership lands because that is going to be the ultimate decider for a volatile course like TPC Sawgrass. It does appear like the course's combustible nature could shift some of these higher-priced options into land mines. However, my early math would be in on two of these players before we get a better idea of popularity.

Scottie Scheffler ($12,800) is going to follow one of two paths this week for gamers. Do you believe the putter is back and the field is playing for second? Or is this price hike too much for a golfer looking to break this historical trend that players looking to repeat have struggled at TPC Sawgrass in the past?

Scheffler's ball-striking acumen isn't like that of past champions, making this increased price still worth considering because of the easy nature of constructing builds around him.

There is also something to be said about Xander Schauffele ($11,300) and his 41 consecutive made cuts. If the streak were to end, this is a likely location, but Schauffele's lack of perceived win equity might be garnering too large of an influence in this market. A lower-price would have been preferred, but Xander is a Dye specialist who excels on these fast but soft greens.

Currently In: Scottie Scheffler

Playing: Xander Schauffele

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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

There is a ton to like between Max Homa, Jordan Spieth, Ludvig Aberg and Sam Burns.

Max Homa ($9,600) enters the weekend trending after posting back-to-back top 16 finishes on tour and has generated consecutive top 13 results here at Sawgrass over the last two years. It shouldn't hurt matters that he landed next to Sam Burns as one of only two players to render top-five results for weighted strokes gained total and scrambling inside of my model.

Jordan Spieth ($9,500) is not typically my cup of tea in the $9,000 range, but the recent surge in par-five scoring could blend exceptionally well with his scrambling nature. If the American can be safer than expected with his irons, a high-end finish could be in the cards.

Ludvig Aberg ($9,300) was disappointing last weekend at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. A respectable Saturday and Sunday moved him up the leaderboard and inside the top 25, but there are reasons to believe that the PLAYERS could be equally as enticing of a course if he can be better on the par-five locations.

And one of my favorite plays this week is Sam Burns ($9,200). The most notable return for him was the fact that he increased his expected weighted proximity by 90 spots over his baseline projection, which will include additional top 10 totals entering the mix for weighted total driving, scrambling, and TPC + Pete Dye success.

I assume Burns' struggles on Sunday at Bay Hill will keep this ownership in check. Had that performance not happened, we might be looking at the most popular player on the board.

Playing: Max Homa, Jordan Spieth, Ludvig Aberg, Sam Burns

 

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

Russell Henley ($8,600) 

My model noticed this massive increase for success from those who could scramble and hit their irons from 0-150 yards.

Si Woo Kim ($8,000) Bay Hill: 9.1 strokes gained tee-to-green. Negative-8.6 putting. While the putter hasn't always been perfect at Sawgrass, it only took him needing to gain 1.2 strokes in 2017 to capture this title. Similar totals this week could put him on the first page of the leaderboard when diving into how well he is striking the ball.

We can get into more conversation about this section on this week's Bettor Golf Podcast.

Playing: Russell Henley, Si Woo Kim

 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000+)

Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and be able to weigh the data to create your very own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!

We are early in the week, but my five favorite plays so far in this section would be Tom Hoge, Eric Cole, Brian Harman, Adam Hadwin, J.T. Poston. 

Brian Harman ($7,900) is going to lead that group in exposure because of his upside shown on similar courses in the past. I didn't find Bay Hill to be the best venue for his skills last week, which makes his 12-place finish at the API all that more enticing. Look for Harman to build off of his two top-eight finishes at this course over the past four years.

 

$6,000 Options To Consider

$5,000 Options To Consider

 

Win Big With RotoBaller

Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.

Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020

Congrats @tenndolly2 ???

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