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The Super Bowl is always one of the most exciting events of the year for sports fans, but unfortunately, it marks the end of football season. This means there is just one more opportunity to compete in NFL DFS contests until preseason tournaments in August. Whether you've had a ton of DFS success this year or struggled mightily, ending on a high note is the goal on Sunday.
The Kansas City Chiefs are slight underdogs against the San Francisco 49ers on the grand stage, and we're in for one of the trickiest single-game DFS slates of the year. There is no shortage of star power across the board, but both defenses are strong against virtually every position. The biggest winners will likely separate themselves with unique MVP picks and value plays, but it's tough to avoid chalk selections altogether.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel for the 49ers vs. Chiefs Super Bowl NFL DFS showdown slate on February 11. You can also check out our DraftKings Super Bowl NFL DFS picks as well. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on FanDuel.
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MVP Picks
Christian McCaffrey - RB, $17,500
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 272 attempts, 1,459 rushing yards, 83 targets, 67 receptions, 564 receiving yards, and 21 touchdowns.
- 2023 Playoff Stats (two games): 37 attempts, 188 rushing yards, 17 targets, 11 receptions, 72 receiving yards, and four touchdowns
- Opposing Defense Stats: Second-fewest FD points allowed to RBs
Let's start these lineup suggestions out with a healthy serving of chalk. It's understandable if you want to roll the dice and avoid McCaffrey to create a unique lineup, but he has to be mentioned as a top MVP play. McCaffrey's season-high for total touches was 27 in Week 4 against the Arizona Cardinals.
With zero concerns about keeping him healthy heading into the following week, the Niners could give him 30-plus opportunities in this one. Kansas City has arguably the league's best cornerback duo in Trent McDuffie and L'Jarius Sneed, and its defense only allowed two 100-yard receivers in the regular season.
With Brandon Aiyuk potentially neutralized downfield, expect the 49ers to create one-on-one matchups for McCaffrey as a receiver against the Chiefs' linebackers. His passing game usage is well-documented, and he should have plenty of success on the ground against a Kansas City stop unit that surrendered the seventh-most yards per carry (4.5) in regular season action. You might need CMC in this role to compete for a top spot in tournaments.
Christian McCaffrey is the 5th player since 2000 to have at least 25 touchdowns in season (regular season + playoffs).#NFL | #FTTB pic.twitter.com/8lztRnb1UM
— Pro Football Reference (@pfref) January 31, 2024
Travis Kelce - TE, $13,000
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 121 targets, 93 receptions, 984 receiving yards, and five receiving touchdowns
- 2023 Playoff Stats (three games): 27 targets, 23 receptions, 262 yards, and three touchdowns
- Opposing Defense Stats: Seventh-fewest FD points allowed to TEs
After a mediocre regular season (by his standards), Kelce has regained his dominance in postseason action. Kelce, who just passed Jerry Rice for the most playoff receptions of all time (156), hauled in 16 of his 17 targets for 191 yards and three touchdowns in his last two games.
Both games were against defenses that allowed fewer than 50 yards per game to tight ends in the regular season. The matchup with Fred Warner and the 49ers linebacker group is daunting on paper, but Kelce has been matchup-proof for a long time. Tight ends T.J. Hockenson and Trey McBride each caught at least 10 passes for 68 yards in matchups with San Fran.
Picking Kelce at MVP is affordable, avoids major chalk, and provides the necessary upside needed to take down tournaments. The future Hall of Famer has saved his best for last, and in the biggest moments, Patrick Mahomes will always look his way.
Other Captains/MVPs: Patrick Mahomes, Brock Purdy, Isiah Pacheco
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DFS Flex Plays
Patrick Mahomes - QB, $15,000
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 4,183 passing yards, 27 passing touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 389 rushing yards, and one rushing touchdown
- 2023 Playoff Stats (three games): 718 passing yards, four passing touchdowns, zero interceptions, and 75 rushing yards
- Opposing Defense Stats: Seventh-fewest FD points allowed to QBs
Mahomes isn't a sure thing as an MVP pick this season, as he's evolved into more of a "game manager" late in the year. Given Kansas City's strong defense and lack of offensive firepower at wideout, it makes sense. However, he remains a strong flex consideration in his fourth Super Bowl.
The two-time MVP won't shrink in the crucial moments, and with him and Andy Reid getting two weeks to draw up an offensive game plan, it won't be surprising if he delivers one of his best performances of the season.
The 49ers surrendered the 13th-fewest passing yards per game in the regular season (215.6), so again, this selection isn't based on a juicy matchup. Instead, it's banking on the best player in the NFL to overcome any offensive insufficiencies Kansas City might deal with on Sunday.
If Kelce is going to have a big day like expected, Mahomes is obviously going to benefit. He has also averaged 4.8 rushing attempts per game in 17 career playoff starts, compared to 3.9 in regular season games. If there's anything underrated about Mahomes, it's his rushing skill set, and that's a bonus.
George Kittle - TE, $10,000
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 90 targets, 65 receptions, 1,020 receiving yards, and six receiving touchdowns
- 2023 Playoff Stats (two games): 10 targets, six receptions, 108 yards, and one receiving touchdown
- Opposing Defense Stats: Fourth-fewest FD points allowed to TEs
Kittle is just the ninth-most expensive piece for Sunday's DFS showdown, which makes him an attractive lineup starter. Although the 30-year-old has rarely been the most consistent DFS option at tight end, his upside rivals any player at the position.
He quietly put up over 1,000 yards this year, but his touchdown total regressed from 11 in 2022 to six in 2023. In any given game, he has the chance to go nuclear, and his prospects of getting open against Nick Bolton, Willie Gay, and the Chiefs' safeties are more promising than the 49ers receivers running by Trent McDuffie and L'Jarius Sneed.
Kittle's receiving prop is set at 49.5 yards, which feels low considering how dominant Kansas City has been on the outside. Kyle Shanahan and company must do damage in the middle of the field to hang with the Chiefs. While it's true he's used as a blocker often, he still posted a 95.3% route participation rate in 2023, which ranked third among tight ends. He also ranked No. 1 in deep targets (11) and No. 2 in aDOT (9.5 yards) at the position. He doesn't need double-digit targets to pile up FanDuel points, making him a great boom-or-bust consideration -- which is perfect for GPP formats.
BY GEORGE, HE'S GOT IT 🙌
📺: #SEAvsSF on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/pWMED8SAQa pic.twitter.com/ELB3jPWl2W— NFL (@NFL) December 10, 2023
Other Flex Options: Isiah Pacheco, Brock Purdy, Deebo Samuel, Rashee Rice
DFS Value Plays
Harrison Butker - K, $9,500
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 38-38 on extra points, 33-35 on field goals, and 5-5 on field goals of 50+
- 2023 Playoff Stats (three games): 7-7 on extra points and 7-7 on field goals
Picking a kicker in DFS contests is never flashy or fun, but if this matchup becomes more of a defensive battle than an offensive boat race, Butker could be one of the top beneficiaries. This season, Butker attempted the most field goals (35) and scored the most points (137) since his 2019 campaign. He's been relied upon as Kansas City has struggled to find its offensive footing at times, and he's as consistent as they come among NFL kickers.
The 49ers allowed just under two field goal attempts per game this year, which is roughly a league-average figure. The 28-year-old has games of 17 and 24 FD points on his 2023 game log, and Kansas City trusts him in the big moments -- especially after he made the game-winning field goal in last year's Super Bowl against the Philadelphia Eagles.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling - WR, $7,500
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 42 targets, 21 receptions, 315 receiving yards, and one touchdown
- 2023 Playoff Stats (three games): five targets, three receptions, and 108 receiving yards
- Opposing Defense Stats: 12th-fewest FD points allowed to WRs
Valdes-Scantling posted career lows in receptions, yards, and touchdowns this year, but he's shown a few promising signs during the postseason. After Justin Watson out-snapped him in the Wild Card Round, MVS posted a 50% snap share in the Divisional Round and a season-high 83% snap share in the AFC Championship win over the Baltimore Ravens.
Additionally, the Chiefs trusted him down the field as he caught the game-sealing pass to convert on third down to put away the Ravens. He's trending up when it matters, and he remains in the "deep shot" role for Patrick Mahomes.
During the regular season, Valdes-Scantling ranked second among wide receivers in aDOT (17.7) and 23rd in yards per reception (15.0). Although he hasn't found a ton of success down the field this year, Kansas City has to make the 49ers fear the long ball for their intermediate game to be effective. MVS isn't someone you'd want to roll with in a traditional fantasy lineup, but he has a boom-or-bust outlook and he won't be highly rostered.
MVS IN A BIG SPOT.
📺: #KCvsBAL on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/IIZbdmhqNS pic.twitter.com/qRCH0uuAdw— NFL (@NFL) January 28, 2024
Other Value Plays: Justin Watson, Jauan Jennings, Noah Gray, Jake Moody
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