RADIO
As we exit the first month of the 2024 PGA Tour season, you'll have to forgive golf bettors if they believe the sky is falling. Last week's Farmers Insurance Open was considered to be an event where the cream would rise to the top, as it so often does at Torrey Pines. However, it was Frenchman Matthieu Pavon who outlasted a rather uninspiring leaderboard to nab victory at the Farmers. Pavon's unexpected win marked the fourth time this year (ie every event) that a golfer with triple-digit outright odds has won an event.
While there's always a chance that the underdog trend continues, that will be a tougher task for this week's AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, one of the Tour's "Signature Events" that features an exclusive field packed with the top golfers in the game.
Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our amazing PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!
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2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
What a difference a year makes! Last year's AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am featured just one player ranked inside the OWGR top-10. However, this year's edition will include nine of the world's top 10 golfers with the lone exception being LIV defector Jon Rahm. It's amazing what a huge guaranteed prize purse and no-cut can do, and while it may not be the best formula from a competitive standpoint, the PGA Tour's strategy of dotting the schedule with "Signature Events" has been successful in drawing elite fields.
It is nice to see the world's best golfers teeing it up on one of America's most iconic courses, Pebble Beach. In another change to this year's edition, the pro-am format will be narrowed down to two days and we'll get to see more of Pebble itself, as the former three-course rotation that included Pebble, Spyglass Hill, and Monterrey Peninsula has been whittled down to a two-course rota similar to what we saw last week at the Farmers, as the field will play one round each on Pebble and Spyglass before spending the entire weekend on the jewel of the West Coast.
For defending AT&T champion Justin Rose, retaining this title will be a gargantuan task, as he'll square off against a field that's very different from the one he bested last year. As mentioned earlier, the cream of the crop is set to tee it up this week with huge dollars on the line. Remember, this is a smaller-than-normal field with no-cut, so we should adjust our PGA DFS strategy accordingly.
You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. And be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
The Course: Pebble Beach Golf Links
Par 72 - 6,972 Yards, Greens: Poa Annua, Designed By: Jack Neville and Douglas Grant
Spyglass Hill: Par 72 - 7,041 Yards, Greens: Poa Annua, Designed By: Robert Trent Jones
As mentioned in the intro, we are dealing with two different courses this week. In addition to Pebble, which players will play once in the first two rounds and again for the entire weekend, Spyglass Hill will also be in the rotation. Both are ruggedly beautiful, with the famous Pebble Beach being the crown jewel.
A few things stand out drastically this week, as both Pebble and Spyglass come in at 7,000 yards or less, which is extremely short by modern standards. The biggest defense of both courses is the weather. Basically, windy conditions can make these layouts very difficult, while tranquil weather makes them gettable.
Pebble, where golfers will play three rounds this week, has a well-known championship pedigree and has hosted seven different major championships. It infamously has some of the smallest greens on the PGA Tour schedule, though the fairways are wide and generous. Power off the tee is largely mitigated here due to the number of forced layups, so this is one of the few weeks of the year when I'll lend almost no weight to driving distance, and will instead focus on sharp iron players and strong short games.
Recent AT&T Pebble Beach Winners & Scoring Info
- 2023: Justin Rose (-18)
- 2022: Tom Hoge (-19)
- 2021: Daniel Berger (-18)
- 2020: Nick Taylor (-19)
- 2019: Phil Mickelson (-19)
The Horse
Jordan Spieth
- Event Scoring Average: 69.25 (11 career starts)
- Notable Course History: 2nd (2022), T3 ('21), T9 ('20), Win ('17), Win ('15)
- DraftKings Price: $9,500
Jordan Spieth's affinity for Augusta National is well known, but his achievements at Pebble Beach aren't far behind. Since recording a T22 during his rookie year on Tour, the Texan has been dominant on the iconic California layout, posting a win at the AT&T Pro-Am in 2015 and several more "near misses" that have resulted in three additional top-four finishes at Pebble.
Similarly to Augusta National, Spieth has plenty of room to operate off the tee here. Pebble's infamously tiny greens also play to his advantage, as it allows his legendary short game - and streaky iron play - to shine. The three-time major champion is also uniquely equipped to handle any windy conditions that pop up thanks to his Texas roots.
In addition to his elite track record and the obvious course fit, Spieth's game appears to be in sharp form. He scored a T3 earlier this month at the Sentry, where he led the field in SG: Putting at Kapalua.
🚨 Jordan Spieth fires a -9, 63 in Round 3 of the Pebble Beach Pro Am. Jordan is -14 for the tournament and is only 1 shot off the lead heading into the final round tomorrow. 🚨 Jordan Spieth can win a golf tournament tomorrow. 🔥 Tune in. 🚨 pic.twitter.com/xZGsPZBp8n
— Spieth Tracker (@Spieth_Tracker) February 6, 2022
The Ponies
Patrick Cantlay
- Event Scoring Average: 69.38 (Six career starts)
- Notable Course History: T4 ('22), T3 ('21), T11 ('20), T9 ('13)
- DraftKings Price: $9,700
It's certainly been an underwhelming start to 2024 for Cantlay. He comes to the AT&T Pro-Am fresh off a disheartening T56 in last week's Farmers and just two weeks removed from a T52 at the AmEx. Neither outing is up to snuff for the No. 6 ranked player in the world but he's got a great chance to turn things around this week at Pebble Beach, a course where he's performed very well in prior starts.
Classy wedge work from @Patrick_Cantlay 🎯 pic.twitter.com/cn7YLqGTQR
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) January 26, 2024
The Californian was all over wins in the 2021 & 2022 editions of the AT&T Pro-Am, ultimately settling for top-four finishes in both renewals. Since a T9 in his 2013 Pebble Beach debut, Cantlay has amassed a sterling 69.38 scoring average in the AT&T. His California roots make him a natural on Poa Annua greens and in coastal conditions, while his measured accuracy both off the tee and on approach makes him a deadly force on this track. With public sentiment likely low on him after his mediocre output to start the year, this profiles as a breakout spot for Patty Ice.
Max Homa
- Event Scoring Average: 70.77 (Six career starts)
- Notable Course History: T7 ('21), T14 ('20), T10 ('19)
- DraftKings Price: $9,200
Homa heads to the AT&T Pro-Am looking to add the Pebble Beach Infinity Stone to his California gauntlet. The Cali native has been dominant on the West Coast, picking up four of his six PGA Tour wins in his home state via victories at Silverado (twice), Riviera, and Torrey Pines.
West Coast swing. 👌@Maxhoma | #ProV1 #TSR3 pic.twitter.com/AvDCKGXT9J
— Titleist (@Titleist) January 24, 2024
His track record at Pebble indicates that the famed layout could well be next on his California hit list. Since missing cuts in two of his first three career trips to PB, Homa has rebounded to go T7-T14-T10 across his last three AT&T outings. The 33-year-old enters this Signature Event playing the most consistent golf of his career. A T13 in last week's Farmers marked his 10th-straight start with a finish of T15 or better and he's gained strokes T2G in his last 12 consecutive starts.
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Beau Hossler
- Event Scoring Average: 70.38 (Seven career starts)
- Notable Course History: T11 ('23), 3rd ('22), T38 ('20)
- DraftKings Price: $7,800
Big Hoss is coming in hot off a T6 last week at Torrey Pines. If his results down the stretch in 2023 are any indicator, finishes like last week's are becoming the rule and not the exception for the former amateur prodigy. The 28-year-old has played the best golf of his career over the past six months, scoring a T7 at the Shriners in October followed by a runner-up at the ZOZO, and a T15 at the WWT Championship. After a knock-the-rust-off outing at the AmEx, Hossler resumed his charge last week at Farmers by gaining 9.3 strokes total in a rock-solid all-around performance.
Beau Hossler saves par and stays top 4 on the leaderboard
+9000 start the day
+1100 live to win @FDSportsbook pic.twitter.com/AZswIdJ36j— Golfbet (@Golfbet) January 27, 2024
A dramatic improvement in ball-striking has been the catalyst for Hossler's recent rise. Historically a below-average iron player, he's now gained strokes on Approach in eight of his last nine starts and has gained an average of 2.1 strokes on Approach over his last five starts. His new and improved T2G should be a big boost this week on a Pebble Beach layout where he's logged a T7 and a solo third over the last two editions of the AT&T Pro-Am.
Nick Taylor
- Event Scoring Average: 70.00 (Nine career starts)
- Notable Course History: T20 ('23), T14 ('22), Win ('20), T10 ('17)
- DraftKings Price: $7,200
We'll round out this week's horses with Nick Taylor, a former AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am winner. Taylor would certainly fit the mold of this year's "longshots winning every week" narrative and he shouldn't be dismissed just because he isn't a "big name".
A wire-to-wire win at Pebble. 💯 Nick Taylor earns his second PGA Tour victory after a final-round 70 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. pic.twitter.com/DXU7UU6NnJ
— Golf Digest (@GolfDigest) February 9, 2020
The Canadian has been consistently excellent on this classic California course. Since missing the cut in his Pebble Beach debut in 2015, Taylor has made seven of eight cuts in the AT&T with a win in brutal weather conditions (sound familiar this week?) coming in 2020. His track record displays that the victory was no fluke, as he's logged top-30 finishes in five additional Pebble Beach appearances en route to gaining 43.02 strokes total in the AT&T. After a knock-the-rust-off outing at the Sentry, Taylor scored a strong T7 at the Sony thanks to gaining an impressive 5.7 strokes on Approach. A missed cut at the AmEx isn't a huge concern, as he posted rounds of 68-67-70 while gaining strokes total at La Quinta.
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