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RotoBaller's NHL Premium Picks and Analysis for the DFS slate on FanDuel and DraftKings on January 2, 2024.
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Happy New Year! It’s the first Tuesday of the month, which means DraftKings will have their highest prize pools for the next four weeks. We have a strong 13-game slate tonight that features good matchups for both high-priced and value offenses. There are early and late games that feature these teams, so you can construct your lineup any way you please; whether you want an early lead or a late-night hammer.
DraftKings has its usual array of low-cost GPP options, with four tournaments priced at $20 or less with a top prize of $1,000 or more; highlighted by the $20-entry Tuesday Twenty with a top prize of $20,000. Meanwhile, Fanduel has a $4.44 entry tournament with a $2,000 first prize. There is money to be won tonight, so let’s get that cash!
This is going to be a fun slate with a ton of stacking options. I aim to help you narrow down your plays to get the most bang for your DFS buck. Be sure to check out all of our NHL articles and NHL DFS tools, including our daily NHL Heat Map. NHL Premium members can find many members of the RotoBaller NHL team in Discord leading up to lock to answer all of your lineup questions.
Top Three Stacks of the Night
Colorado Avalanche (COL1 - Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon, Jonathan Drouin, Cale Makar)
Forgetting the matchup, which is outstanding, it’s appealing to use all four key members of the Avalanche top line simply because the general NHL DFS player doesn’t have the acumen to find enough value to make them all fit while still using optimal lineup construction (a full secondary stack). Heck, we have tons of skill and it’s still hard to be comfortable with a secondary stack when using Colorado’s top line, but there are lines in advantageous positions to make this a worthwhile play (BOS3, VAN3, DET3 all fit with room for a half-decent goalie and second defender). The reason we should be so willing to hunt value with our second is that Colorado gets a great home matchup against an Islanders team that can’t stop anyone.
They have allowed 3.16 even-strength goals per 60 minutes and 14.34 high-danger chances in their last ten games, and advanced data tells us that this number isn’t just a product of bad luck. None of the Islanders' defensive pairings are playing well, giving up an above-average percentage of possession, shots, high-danger chances, and goals. Ilya Sorokin is standing on his head, saving 95.7% of unblocked shots (an elite number), and he’s still allowing over three goals per game (3.59 goals per game on the road). That’s what happens when he’s peppered with over 35 shots per game, many of which are coming from a disadvantageous position. Colorado is well worth the money tonight, and with all the value on the slate, they are a team that you, a skilled DFS player, should have no problem creating a strong lineup around.
Pittsburgh Penguins (PIT1 - Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel, Rickard Rakell)
I have been calling for a Rickard Rakell resurgence for a while now, and it looks like we are finally in the midst of Rakell playing like we expected all year. He has a goal or an assist in four of his last five games, and not coincidently, the Penguins' offense has responded to his improved performance with three or more goals scored in four of their last five games. Rakell has seen a small increase in price, but at $4,000 he’s still a value given his placement on the Penguins’ top line next to Sidney Crosby and Jake Guentzel. To their credit, Crosby and Guentzel have a combined four goals and five assists in those last five games.
Tonight, the Penguins get a matchup at home against a Capitals team that is due for major negative regression. They have allowed only 1.66 even-strength goals per 60 minutes over their last ten road games, but advanced data says that Washington has been lucky as they were expected to allow 2.77 goals. Against a lesser offense, maybe Washington’s luck could continue but this is an offense that can make a poor defensive unit pay. We are going to attack the defensive pairing of Carlson/Fehervary, who have allowed over 15 high-danger chances per game on the road this year.
That duo’s expected goals allowed per 60 is nearly a goal more than what they’ve allowed, and they’ll face off against the Penguins top line for a majority of their time on the ice. Darcy Kuemper has allowed five goals in each of his last two road games, and overall he’s given up 3.71 goals per game on the road this year, so he’s not going to be any help. Pittsburgh isn’t quite as appealing as Colorado, but they do cost less so using them would allow you to create a more balanced lineup.
Los Angeles Kings (LAK2 - Phillip Danault, Trevor Moore, Kevin Fiala)
The final line that’s rated as “blue” on the Heat Map is the second line of the Los Angeles Kings. The Kings are great at home, scoring 2.91 even-strength goals per 60 minutes over their last ten games, and advanced data suggests that there’s some room to grow to an even higher level. They get a Toronto team that’s allowed 3.52 even-strength goals per 60 minutes over their last ten road games, as well as 12.85 high-danger chances per game. Martin Jones is expected to be in net for the Leafs, and he’s struggled on the road, allowing 3.35 goals per game with a sub-90% save percentage. There are no defensive pairings we are looking to avoid for Toronto, but the most generous recently has been Benoit/McCabe. They are giving up over 16 high-danger chances per 60 minutes, and they should spend a significant time on the ice with the Kings’ second line.
Others in consideration: NSH1, BOS1, CAR1, VAN1, LAK1, NYR1
Top Value Stack of the Night
Dallas Stars (DAL2 - Tyler Seguin, Mason Marchment, Matt Duchene)
Dallas has been playing so well at home lately that it’s hard to fade them even if the data suggests that they are due for some major negative regression. In their last ten home games, the Stars have averaged a slate-high 3.73 even-strength goals per 60 minutes. It’s likely that the Stars’ second line will spend the most time on the ice with the Matheson/Savard defensive pairing for the Canadiens.
Over their last ten road games, that duo has allowed 14.38 high-danger chances per game and they give up a ton of possession to opposing offenses. Maybe we fade Dallas and their expected 2.4 even-strength goals against a better defense, but the Canadiens aren’t great and it’s worth taking a chance that the Stars continue their hot streak given their relatively low prices. The trio of Seguin, Marchment, and Duchene come with an average cost of less than $4,800 per player and that’s just too cheap given their relative upside.
Others in consideration: BOS3, CBJ3, NSH2, VAN3, DET3
Top Goalies to Target
Stuart Skinner (Edmonton Oilers)
Stuart Skinner is on a bit of a roll, so I’m going to continue to ride him. His season-long statistics aren’t great, but Skinner has at least 17.2 DraftKings points in his last three starts. He’s allowed more than three goals only once in his last nine starts, giving him a fighting chance for a win in all of those games and keeping a high score viable if he faces any sort of shot volume.
He could very well see that volume tonight, as he’s facing a Flyers team that has taken 32.5 shots on goal per game. Edmonton’s defense is playing well in front of Skinner, allowing only ten high-danger chances per game over their last ten home games. Less high-danger chances mean easier saves for a goalie. Combine a high shot volume with easily convertible saves and you’ve got a recipe for a potentially high score for your goalie.
Others in consideration (GPP): Igor Shesterkin, Connor Hellebuyck, Sergei Bobrovsky, Alex Lyon, David Rittich
Others in consideration (Cash): Thatcher Demko, Tristan Jarry
