RADIO
Joe Nicely's under-the-radar DraftKings, FanDuel PGA DFS picks for the 2024 The Sentry Tournament of Champions at Kapalua. His Horse for the Course for daily fantasy golf based on course history.
Hello, friends, and Happy New Year! It is great to be back with you talking golf here at RotoBaller. I appreciate you joining me and I look forward to an exciting year of golf in 2024, starting this week with The Sentry.
This will be my sixth year doing Horse For The Course and I'm just as excited to write it as I was the first year! Thanks to all of you who make this article a small part of your weekly PGA DFS research process. For those of you who are joining us for the first time, welcome!
Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our amazing PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!
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2024 Sentry Tournament of Champions
It's exciting to be back, as some of the world's best and most exciting golfers are set to knock the rust off in Kapalua this week for The Sentry. The same can be said for PGA DFS grinders, as we look to rediscover our groove in what will be our first opportunity to make golf lineups in over a month.
Formerly known as "The Sentry Tournament of Champions", like many things on the PGA Tour in 2024, the newly-named Sentry features some changes this year. In addition to all tournament winners from 2023, players who finished the season inside the FedEx Cup Top 50 also earned an invitation to the Plantation Course at Kapalua this year. In addition to the small field, The Sentry is also a no-cut event, both of which we always want to take into consideration when crafting PGA DFS lineups.
We'll dive deeper into this field and its course history throughout the article, but I suppose we have to touch on the elephant in the room subject of who isn't here this week...defending Sentry champion Jon Rahm. As most of you know, Rahm made a highly-publicized jump to LIV Golf last month and won't be playing on the PGA Tour this year outside of the four major championships. PGA Tour stalwart Rory McIlroy is the only other Sentry qualifier who won't be teeing it up this week, as he traditionally starts his calendar year with international play. All told, we'll have 59 golfers teeing it up this week at Kapalua.
You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. And be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
The Course: Plantation Course at Kapalua
Par 73 - 7,596 Yards, Greens: Bermuda, Architect: Bill Coore & Ben Crenshaw
The Plantation Course sits at the foot of the West Maui Mountains and incorporates drastic elevation changes into the layout. We will see some of the longest drives of the season this week, as players will have several downhill tee shots and wide, forgiving fairways that allow them to freely swing away off the tee. Believe it or not, there's a strong correlation between Kapalua and Augusta National, as many former Sentry winners also happen to be Masters champions!
We are dealing with a rare Par 73 course that features four Par-5s. Weather conditions, specifically the wind, can sometimes be a factor at Kapalua, but the conditions are usually mild to moderate enough to allow for very low scoring, as evidenced by Cameron Smith's record-breaking 34-under par win two years ago.
This is the easiest course on the PGA Tour schedule. The fairways and greens are both huge and easy to hit. We'll want to dial in on players with previous experience in this unique environment, as well as those with strong proximity numbers and the ability to get hot with the putter to rack up birdies.
Recent Sentry TOC Winners
- 2023: Jon Rahm (-27)
- 2022: Cameron Smith (-34)
- 2021: Harris English (-25)
- 2020: Justin Thomas (-14)
- 2019: Xander Schauffele (-23)
The Horse
Collin Morikawa
- Event Scoring Average: 68.06 (Four career starts)
- Notable Course History: 2nd (2023), T5 ('22), T7 ('21), T7 ('20)
- DraftKings Price: $9,100
We have to imagine that Collin Morikawa heads to Kapalua Resort with redemption on his mind. Morikawa will look to exorcise some demons this week, as he choked away a seemingly insurmountable lead down the stretch in last year's Sentry, ultimately losing to Jon Rahm as a result of his epic meltdown.
Morikawa should be able to overcome any hangover from last year's blunder, as he's been phenomenal throughout his career at The Plantation Course. In four Sentry starts, Morikawa has never finished worse than T7, with last year's runner-up finish and a T5 in 2022 standing as his most recent results. His 25.74 SG: Total in this event stands as the second-best career mark among this week's Sentry entrants.
Collin Morikawa gets first win since 2021 at Zozo Championship https://t.co/pwfazaWKi3
— Golf Central (@GolfCentral) October 22, 2023
In addition to his sterling track record at Kapalua, the two-time major championship comes into this year's edition with some positive momentum. Following a 2023 season that was solid, but certainly below his lofty standards, Morikawa was able to close out the year on an optimistic note with a win at the ZOZO Championship in October.
The Ponies
Xander Schauffele
- Event Scoring Average: 68.86 (Six career starts)
- Notable Course History: WD ('23), T5 ('21), T2 ('20), Win ('19)
- DraftKings Price: $10,000
A back injury forced the X-Man to W/D from last year's Sentry. Despite that bad memory, we have to imagine that Schauffele will be happy to get back to a Kapalua layout on which he's found so much previous success. Before last year's injury-related issues, the Californian had been borderline dominant in the Sentry -- winning the 2019 edition, nearly repeating in 2020, and scoring a T5 in 2021.
At long last, it is Sentry week for Xander Schauffele, and he has arrived at The Plantation Course for preparation to begin his 2024 season!
Lots of history at this event for him, from a win in 2019, to a playoff in 2020, to a WD due to injury last year.
Let's have a week! 🤙 pic.twitter.com/qLf03JK4IY
— Xander Schauffele Legion (@XanderLegion) January 1, 2024
Despite ending his 2023 campaign without a victory, the 30-year-old unsurprisingly posted consistently strong results while finishing ranked inside the top five on the PGA Tour in SG: Total, Approach, and Putting last season. We can expect more of the same from Schauffele in 2024 and this week's Sentry represents a great opportunity for him to end his nearly 18-month winless drought.
Tom Kim
- Event Scoring Average: 67.50 (One career start)
- Notable Course History: T5 ('23)
- DraftKings Price: $8,900
Though his course history at Kapalua isn't extensive, Kim certainly got off to a promising start in his Sentry debut last year. The 21-year-old dazzled in his 2023 Sentry debut, firing four rounds of 69 or better en route to a T5 finish.
Tom Kim successfully defends his title at the Shriners Children’s Open! 🏆 pic.twitter.com/EETnzP82ak
— Golf Digest (@GolfDigest) October 16, 2023
Kim's first full season on the PGA Tour featured some peaks and valleys, however, the talented youngster closed 2023 with trending form that resulted in a runner-up finish at the Open Championship followed by a successful defense of his title at the Shriners Children's Open in October. He finished the season ranked 10th on Tour in SG: Approach and 16th in Birdie or Better Percentage while becoming the youngest player since Tiger Woods to win three PGA Tour titles. Kim possesses the ability to go low and his game appears to be a wonderful fit for this week's Plantation Course layout.
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Sungjae Im
- Event Scoring Average: 67.67 (Three career starts)
- Notable Course History: T13 ('23), T8 ('22), T5 ('21)
- DraftKings Price: $8,100
Im's 67.67 career scoring average at the Sentry is the best in this week's field among those with at least two starts at Kapalua. The talented South Korean has gained an impressive 13.79 strokes total across his three Sentry outings which has resulted in finishes of T13 or better in each of his trips to Maui.
It's official - courtesy of the South Korean men's team winning gold at the Asian Games, both Sungjae Im and Si Woo Kim will be exempt from military service. Absolutely huge! pic.twitter.com/JXyPO2c08d
— Sam Harrop (@sam_golf) October 1, 2023
Many pegged 2023 as a breakout year for the 25-year-old. While he was unable to get a win under his belt last year, he demonstrated his upside by notching nine top-10 finishes in 31 starts. Im closed the season ranked 17th on Tour in SG: Total and Total Birdies. He brings loads of DFS upside to the table at his moderate $8.1k price point.
Cameron Davis
- Event Scoring Average: 67.25 (One career start)
- Notable Course History: T10 ('22)
- DraftKings Price: $7,100
After battling a lingering illness at the outset of 2023, Cameron Davis rebounded to log his best career finish in a major (T4 PGA Championship) and play some of his best golf in the latter months of the year. His placement in the FedEx Cup standings came down to the wire, as Davis was one of just two golfers to play his way into the BMW Championship Playoff event with a strong performance at the FedEx St. Jude (T6), an outing that also solidified his entry into The Sentry via his Top 50 finish in the final points standings.
Cameron Davis goes birdie-eagle on 15-16 to move within one of the @ShrinersOpen lead. 📈
📺: Golf Channel and @peacock pic.twitter.com/KwYk8tQG2Z
— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) October 15, 2023
His late-year rally included strong fall showings at Fortinet (T3), Shriners (T7), and ZOZO (T12). Davis also remained active through November and December by appearing in both the Australian PGA and Open in his home country. His busy schedule during the winter means he heads to Kapalua sporting less rust than most of the field.
Davis recorded an impressive T10 in his debut two years ago and Aussies sport a long and distinguished record in this event's breezy environment, with Cameron Smith, Geoff Ogilvy, Stuart Appleby, and Steve Elkington holding eight Sentry titles between them.
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