RADIO
Welcome back RotoBallers to my DraftKings NFL DFS Picks for Week 6 -- let's break the slate! Your usual DFS mastermind, Joe Nicely, is off this week and so you get to hear me, Thunder Dan Palyo, ramble and rant about my favorite NFL DFS plays instead! I'm not going to sugarcoat it - this slate is gross! A combination of bye weeks and injuries has left us with fewer good spots than usual and we just might see ownership consolidate quite a bit around the remaining best spots = aka, this could be a chalky slate!
This week's DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected DK points and ownership, overall upside/talent levels, and opportunity, as well as factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great plays available on DK for Week 7.
Also, be sure to check out our weekly FanDuel DFS lineup picks and lots of other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big! Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups -- let's dominate this slate together!
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DraftKings Quarterbacks - Week 7 DFS Picks
Patrick Mahomes - KC vs. LAC ($8,300)
Mahomes is an obvious play here, right? Well, you would think so, but finding the salary to play him and stack him with his buddy Travis Kelce is easier said than done when you consider how many other cheap plays you are going to have to use in order to fit them into your build.
Still, Mahomes is worth exposure in GPPs as I think he carries the highest ceiling on the slate. Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco is looking like a chalky play, so pivoting to the KC passing game here against the middling Chargers pass defense makes sense.
We have yet to see Mahomes really pop off this year, but perhaps this is the week as the Chargers have enough offense to push the Chiefs into a shootout. And one thing Pat has been doing well is running the ball, averaging over 30 yards rushing per game with his sneaky scrambling ability. All it takes is probably three passing TDs and another rushing TD for Mahomes (or perhaps Josh Allen) to set the bar high for the rest of the QBs on this slate.
Jordan Love - GB @ DEN ($5,800)
If you want the definition of a boom/bust, swinging for the fences, GPP play this week then it's Jordan Love against the worst pass defense in football. Love looked good in the first few weeks of the season, but some regression has set in he's now thrown six interceptions in his last three games, including three in a dreadful performance against the Raiders in Week 5.
But the Packers are coming off a bye week and are probably the healthiest they have been all year (though Aaron Jones continues to nurse a hamstring injury and remains questionable). This is about as good of a "get right" spot as Love could wish for as Denver ranks dead last in passing DVOA defense. They have also been burnt deep often this year, ranking last in completion percentage and yards per attempt on throws over ten air yards.
Jordan Love to Christian Watson. 77 yards 😎 pic.twitter.com/wf4OYTvVN6
— Lily Zhao (@LilySZhao) October 10, 2023
Love happens to have attempted the fifth-most throws of ten air yards or more and while he hasn't completed them at a high percentage, it shows that he's willing to push the ball down the field. Love also has some mobility and has over 100 yards rushing through his first five starts with two rushing touchdowns. We can pair him with Christian Watson or Luke Musgrave for a very affordable stack with huge upside.
QB PIVOT PLAY: Josh Allen ($8,200)
DraftKings Running Backs - Week 7 DFS Picks
Kenneth Walker III - SEA vs. ARI ($7,000)
Without many bell-cow backs on the slate, it's quickly starting to appear like KW3 will be the chalkiest running back on the slate. However, I think when it comes to running backs this week we are probably best off eating some chalk and getting different with our QBs and pass catchers.
Walker gets the Arizona Cardinals this week and their 29th-rate DVOA rushing defense. He also has the second-best OL-DL matchup of working in his favor according to Pro Football Focus.
RB RZ Rushing Attempt Stats Through Wk 6 🎯⬇️
1. CMC - 30 att
2. Tony Pollard - 29 att
3. David Montgomery - 27 att
4. Kenneth Walker III - 25 att
T5. Kyren Williams - 24 att
T5. Josh Jacobs - 24 att▪️Zack Moss, Isiah Pacheco & Joe Mixon just missed the top 5 RB list above… pic.twitter.com/V2QxAKTem8
— PPRFantasyTips (@PPRFantasyTips) October 20, 2023
His goal-line carry share (percentage of the team's carries inside the 10-yard line) is massive at 88% and has resulted in him putting up six touchdowns in his first six games. With the Seahawks installed as touchdown favorites in this one, it's easy to see a path for Walker to have one of his best rushing outputs on the season and get into the end zone - perhaps even multiple times. Fade Walker at your own risk!
Josh Jacobs - LV @ CHI ($7,400)
Like the Cardinals, the Bears have also allowed a top-10 finish by an opposing running back seven times this season (in only six games - yikes). Chicago does rate slightly better in their overall DVOA rushing rank (17th), but they are dead-last against running backs as receivers at 32nd.
With Jimmy G looking doubtful for the Raiders under center, we are now likely going to get Aidan O'Connell or Brian Hoyer at QB this week. The last time Garoppolo missed (against the Chargers), Jacobs had 17 carries and a whopping 8 receptions for a total of 139 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown. It's pretty clear that they are likely to do that again here in a favorable matchup against the Bears on the road.
Jacobs isn't cheap, but locking in 2-3 running backs who are projected for 20+ touches just feels like the right thing to do this week and let everyone else attempt to guess at which cheap backs might go off.
RB PIVOT PLAYS: Isiah Pacheco ($6,100); Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,600)
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DraftKings Wide Receivers - Week 7 DFS Picks
Stefon Diggs - BUF @ NE ($8,900)
While I have landed on Cooper Kupp in cash games, I think this is an absolutely huge spot for Diggs in GPPs, and pairing him with Josh Allen is something you should absolutely do as Allen continues to hone in on Diggs more and more on a weekly basis.
Diggs has 100+ receiving yards in five of six games this season and is coming off a season-high 16 targets against the Giants. At some point, the Bills are going to need to get other receivers more involved but so far, Allen has leaned on Diggs to keep the chains moving.
Only players with 8+ catches in 4 games this season:
🔥 Stefon Diggs
🔥 Michael Pittman Jr. pic.twitter.com/XA9va6SNhc— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) October 19, 2023
The Pats rank just 23rd in DVOA pass defense and we know the Bills are a team that wants to throw the ball more often and it doesn't take much for them to get into pass-first mode. With an elite 34.6% red zone target share, it's easy to see how Diggs has already piled up five receiving touchdowns this season. He won't have to face the Pats' best corner either as rookie Christian Gonzalez is out. Instead, Jonathan Jones is likely to match up with him quite a bit on Sunday. Jones has allowed 1.62 yards per route run - a number that should be unsettling for Patriots fans.
Amari Cooper - CLE @ IND ($6,100)
This play is contingent upon whether or not Deshaun Watson suits up on Sunday afternoon against the Colts. But let's consider that even without Watson last week, Cooper caught four balls for 108 yards from P.J. Walker against a much better secondary of the Niners than he will face on Sunday when the Browns visit the Colts.
The Browns' passing game has struggled this year, but that has more to do with Watson facing some tough matchups early on this year and being banged up. The Colts rank 17th against the pass in DVOA defense and allow the 15th most receiving yards to wideouts.
Cooper is a big, physical receiver and one of the better route runners in the game. He should be a mismatch for any of the Colts' defensive backs, he just needs someone to get him the ball! I would probably avoid this play if we get another PJ Walker start other than in very large field tournaments, but I am going to fire up him (and probably stack him with Watson) in GPPs if Watson returns to the lineup.
WR PIVOT PLAYS: Christian Watson ($5,600); Zay Flowers ($5,700)
DraftKings Tight Ends - Week 7 DFS Picks
Mark Andrews - BAL vs. DET ($5,700)
This is where I want to get a little different from the herd as well. Travis Kelce is projected to be the highest-owned TE on this slate, and he usually is any time he is on the main slate. While Kelce is a fine play, you can roster Andrews for $2300 less and get a similar ceiling. Andrews has not seen the same type of volume that Kelce has but has a nearly identical RZ target rate of 21.7% and on paper, this is actually a better matchup for Andrews as the Lions have allowed the 7th-most fantasy points to TEs this season.
The Lions have been tough against the run this year, forcing opponents to pass. And while Zay Flowers has emerged as one of Lamar Jackson's favorite new targets, Andrews is not far behind him with the second-most receptions and targets for the Ravens this year. This feels like a game that Baltimore is really going to need to lean on their passing game and Jackson is going to have to go back to his old reliable favorite Andrews to keep this Ravens offense moving down the field.
Luke Musgrave - GB @ DEN ($3,300)
Musgrave was emerging as a major threat in the Green Bay passing game before a concussion knocked him out of their Week 4 matchup against the Lions early. He bounced back in Week 5, however, with six catches on seven targets for 34 yards against the Raiders. We'd love to see the yardage totals increase, but the targets are there and the matchup is excellent as the Broncos are dead last in Pass DVOA defense and next to last in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. If you are going punt, take a shot at the talented rookie Musgrave in a great spot.
TE PIVOT PLAY: Michael Mayer ($2,700)
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