RADIO
Split slate today that is starting at 12:20 p.m. I love it when we get baseball all day long. I feel terrific about the props I will recommend today, and they are my top choices of a couple of options I like. I will provide three pitcher props and a brother hit parlay from the early slate. I will be back tomorrow for some more prop bets.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Wednesday, September 20, 2023. I will continue to hone in on pitcher props first, as they are the most lucrative, and we will follow with some hitter props. Let's look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games without further ado! Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Hunter Greene OVER 7.5 strikeouts (+102 FanDuel Sportsbook)
We start today with a strikeout prop attacking the Minnesota Twins. Weird right? If you are new to the article, we have been doing this at RotoBaller on strikeout props all season. Greene has a 30.1% K% and a 13.7% SwStr% on the season. Over the last three starts, Greene has found his groove in limiting damage, allowing him to pitch deeper into games. This ultimately will lead to more strikeouts, especially against this Twins team.
On the season, the Twins have been the most prone to striking out against right-hand pitching. They have a 26.8% K% on the year. Over the last 30 days, they have a 26.5% K%, which aligns with the yearly trends. I will admit that this line at 7.5 is a bit problematic, but getting +102 juice on FanDuel makes this a must-bet for me. DraftKings has the line at -120, so I assume the two will meet midway as the day progresses.
Josiah Gray OVER 1.5 walks allowed (-120 DraftKings SportsBook)
Josiah Gray walks allowed is back in our lives. I have hit this line in three out of his last four starts. His previous start, the books decided not to offer it. Gray went on to walk zero and strike out ten, so the books did us a favor. This has been my favorite prop as of late, and it won’t change today as I am hammering the over.
Gray has walked two or more in eight of his last nine starts. Since the break, Gray has an 11.5% BB% and a 4.56 BB/9. He has a 20.0% BB% against right-handed bats over the last 30 days, and the White Sox are very right-handed heavy. The White Sox have the lowest BB% in the big leagues this season, but I’m banking more on Gray command issues than anything else. All we need is two.
Seth Lugo OVER 5.5 strikeouts (-150 DraftKings SportsBook)
Seth Lugo will square off this afternoon against the Colorado Rockies outside Coors Field. This line is already at 6.5 on FanDuel, so I would jump on it on DraftKings as soon as possible before it takes off. Since the break, Lugo has a 24.0% K% and a 10.4% SwStr%. He has struck out six or more in seven of his 13 starts in the second half of the season. His opponent, the Colorado Rockies, has a 27.3% K% against right-hand pitching in the second half. Hammer the over before it's too late.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
SGP, Josh Naylor + Bo Naylor to record a hit (-115 DraftKings SportsBook)
I have a fun little hometown hit parlay for you all this afternoon with the Naylor brothers against Zack Greinke. On the season, Greinke has allowed a .406 wOBA, .255 ISO, and a 50.2% hard hit against left-handed bats. The trend has continued over the last 30 days since his return from the IL to a .377 wOBA, .206 ISO, and a 58.1% hard hit.
Bo Naylor has been on a tear in the second half of the season, especially in the last 30 days. He has a 203 wRC+, .462 wOBA, .704 SLG, and a .333 AVG against right-hand pitching. His brother Josh has a 116 wRC+, a .336 wOBA, and a .333 AVG in that span against the split. Now, all we need is an opportunity to include younger brother Myles in the parlay, and we're set. We love us all the Naylors today.
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