EPL Betting Picks and FPL Game Previews for Matchday 1: English Premier League

The Premier League is back and so is the RotoBaller soccer team. We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game along with a score prediction and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.

Given this is the first weekend of the season, there are more unknowns than ever so tread lightly and don't be afraid to sit on the sidelines for a while until we begin to get a clearer picture of things. As it's the opening weekend, we'll also be including my favorite season-long plays at the end.

We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller, too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content on top of the weekly preview and betting content, which can be found if you click here. Follow the team on Twitter (@LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions.

 

Friday, August 11, 2023

Burnley (+800) vs Manchester City (-310) - 3:00 pm ET

Score prediction: Burnley 0 – 2 Manchester City

City has won four of their last five opening weekend fixtures, all away from home and three of them by a scoreline of 2-0. They should have too much strength in depth for newly promoted Burnley and despite Turfmoor being a difficult ground to go to, City's bench could see them over the line.

FPL Pick: Erling Haaland

Last season's top scorer bagged both goals in their opening weekend 2-0 win last campaign and scored 14 goals in the first eight games of the season. Expect him to hit the ground running again this season.

 

Saturday, August 12, 2023

Arsenal (-475) vs Nottingham Forest (+1100) - 7:30 am ET

Score prediction: Arsenal 3 – 0 Nottingham Forest

Last year's runners-up won their first seven home games of last season, scoring 22 goals including a 5-0 win over this weekend's opponent. Meanwhile, Forest picked up just eight points away from home last season and failed to score in ten of their 19 road games.

FPL Pick: Gabriel Martinelli

Nine of Martinelli's 15 goals last season came at home and he is set to face off against Serge Aurier, who isn't the most stable defender. He scored Arsenal's first goal of last season and I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a repeat on Saturday.

 

Bournemouth (+170) vs West Ham United (+160) - 10:00 am ET

Score prediction: Bournemouth 1 – 1 West Ham United

Bournemouth did remarkably well to avoid relegation last year but still replaced their manager and have brought in some exciting new players. West Ham's EPL campaign was poor last time out and they sold star midfielder Declan Rice to Arsenal. But they will be coming into the season on a high having won the Europa Conference League and I expect this weekend's game to be a closely played-out game.

FPL Pick: Jarrod Bowen

Bowen became a West Ham legend when he scored the winning goal in their Europa Conference Final last season. He had a disappointing campaign last time out but he had 22 goals involvements in the 2021/22 season and still managed 11 last season.

UNBELIEVABLE SCENES!! 💥

Jarrod Bowen writes himself in West Ham history to surely clinch glory with the last kick of the game!! 🤩#UECLfinal pic.twitter.com/W2b8zqfR8W

— Football on TNT Sports (@footballontnt) June 7, 2023

 

Brighton (-320) vs Luton Town (+800) - 10:00 am ET

Score prediction: Brighton 3 – 1 Luton Town

Brighton wowed fans last season with their exciting style of play and their 72 goals scored was the fourth most in the league. The 53 goals they conceded were the most of the top-10 teams so Luton will fancy their chances of getting their goal tally up and running. But it's difficult to see the Premier League newcomers get a result on Saturday.

FPL Pick: Pascal Groß

The German led the team in goal involvements last season (17), yet seems to be something of a forgotten man for the Seagulls. He lost penalty duties to Alexis Mac Allister but used to be a primary penalty taker three seasons ago and I wouldn't bet against him resuming that role, giving him plenty of routes to a solid points haul.

 

Everton (+120) vs Fulham  (+225) - 10:00 am ET

Score prediction: Everton 1 – 1 Fulham

Everton avoided relegation on the final weekend of the season and it's difficult to see this season going much better for them. Fulham comes into this season with an almost identical squad to last season. Their 10th-place finish was a good effort but they picked up just 14 points from their final 14 games of last season and I expect this game to be a tight and cagey affair with both teams keen to avoid an opening weekend loss.

FPL Pick: Dominic Calvert-Lewin

Calvert-Lewin could hold the key for Everton to avoid another drawn-out relegation battle. If he can finally stay healthy, his goals can be critical for a side lacking attacking options and he is set to start the season without any nagging injury so maybe he can show off his goalscoring talents to kick off Everton's season.

🗣️ Dominic Calvert-Lewin: “I felt good, I felt sharp. "It's another step in the right direction and, obviously, to get on the scoresheet as well - but for me getting 45 minutes behind closed doors was good and to be slowly building it up to the start of the season to be ready for… pic.twitter.com/SvWQcB5soV

— Everton Extra (@Everton_Extra) August 5, 2023

 

Sheffield United (+215) vs Crystal Palace (+140) - 10:00 am ET

Score prediction: Sheffield United 0 – 2 Crystal Palace

I fear for Sheffield United more than the other newly promoted sides. Iliman Ndiaye, last season's top scorer (14) and top assister (11) has left while James Mcatee (nine goals and three assists) hasn't returned following his loan spell. They haven't done much to replace them either. I expect the well-drilled Palace side to run out winners as they should have too many attacking threats, even without the recently departed Wilfried Zaha.

FPL Pick: Eberechi Eze

Eze has flourished under Roy Hodgson. His best season came when Hodgson was in charge (10 goal involvements) and when the former England boss took over towards the end of last season, he tallied seven goal involvements in then ten games after registering seven in his first 28 games.

 

Newcastle United (-135) vs Aston Villa (+350) - 12:30 pm ET

Score prediction: Newcastle United 2 – 1 Aston Villa

Both teams outperformed expectations last season with Newcastle qualifying for the Champions League and Villa reaching the Europa Conference League. Villa only managed 18 goals away from home last season (the fewest of the top 10) while Newcastle's 14 goals conceded at home was the second-fewest in the league. This is where the difference could be on Saturday.

FPL Pick: Kieran Trippier

Much was made of Trippier only picking up one assist after the World Cup but he still topped the defender ranks with 198 points, 42 more than second place. Villa's 14 goals conceded from set-plays last season was the third most so Trippier could easily send out a reminder of his FPL value on Saturday with another set-piece assist.

As of this morning, Kieran Trippier (34%) is in more squads than Trent Alexander-Arnold (33.7%) on #FPL

Post WC Stats (KT vs. TAA)
Goals: 0-1
Assists: 1-10
CS: 7-8

Not saying TAA must be in our GW1 squads, but he’s my preferred option over Trippier for premium defenders. pic.twitter.com/rf2f5qxzU6

— Euan Leith (@EuanOrYouOut) July 12, 2023

 

Sunday, August 13, 2023

Brentford (+180) vs Tottenham (+140) - 9:00 am ET

Score prediction: Brentford 1 – 2 Tottenham

The loss of Ivan Toney will surely hurt Brentford considerably given he scored 20 of their 58 league goals last season. They're well-organized and will still cause problems but Tottenham should have too much for them, especially as it seems like record scorer Harry Kane is set to lead the line this weekend.

FPL Pick: Harry Kane

The fact he's been starting and scoring in Tottenham's preseason games suggests that unless Spurs accept a bid from Bayern Munich before Sunday, he will lead the line against Brentford. Kane scored in both games against Brentford last season en route to his 30-goal haul.

 

Chelsea (+185) vs Liverpool (+135) - 11:30 am ET

Score prediction: Chelsea 2 – 3 Liverpool

These two sides have played out six consecutive draws in all competitions against each other, including two goalless draws in the league last season. But, both sides have undergone changes and I fancy they will both want to show their attacking talents to get their seasons off to a flying start. I'm giving Liverpool the edge due to the greater consistency in their squad but it could go either way on Sunday.

FPL Pick: Mo Salah

While all the attention will be on Chelsea's new players, their underachievers from last season and Liverpool's newly formed midfield, people seem to have forgotten about the FPL superstar. Expect the Egyptian to have a big hand in how the game goes this weekend and he could easily end up the match-winner.

 

Monday, August 14, 2023

Manchester United (-290) vs Wolves (+700) - 3:00 pm ET

Score prediction: Manchester United 2 – 0 Wolves

United has looked to build on last season's third-place finish by strengthening their squad, looking at quality over quantity. Wolves preseason couldn't have gone much worse, losing stay player Ruben Neves and all their hopes seem to be pinned on new signing Matheus Cunha. Manager Julen Lopetegui has departed this week which will surely upset an already unstable-looking club.

FPL Pick: Andre Onana

Onana has been brought in to replace David De Gea and at ~£50m, comes with a hefty price tag. But Manchester United had the best home defensive record last season, conceding just ten goals, and registering 11 home clean sheets. One of which was in the 2-0 win against Wolves. The visitors were the league's lowest scorers last season with 31 goals and I expect United to win and keep a clean sheet on Monday.

 

Betting Picks

The below table gives the odds for each of the three main plays for each game (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score). In bold is my favorite pick from each game if you are looking to build a parlay.

Game	Moneyline	Over/Under 2.5	BTTS
Burnley 0 – 2 Man City	Man City -310	U2.5 +125	No -130
Arsenal 3 – 0 Notts Forest	Arsenal -475	O2.5 -235	No -125
Bournemouth 1 – 1 West Ham	Draw +235	U2.5 -110	Yes -155
Brighton 3 – 1 Luton	Brighton -320	O2.5 -165	Yes +100
Everton 1 – 1 Fulham	Draw +240	U2.5 -120	Yes -140
Sheff United 0 – 2 Crystal Palace	Palace +140	U2.5 -150	No -105
Newcastle 2 – 1 Aston Villa	Newcastle -135	O2.5 -130	Yes -140
Brentford 1 – 2 Tottenham	Tottenham +140	O2.5 -145	Yes -185
Chelsea 2 – 3 Liverpool	Liverpool +135	O2.5 -155	Yes -195
Man United 2 – 0 Wolves	Man United -290	U2.5 +130	No -110
Season totals	0/0	0/0	0/0

Season-Long Plays

• To be relegated - Wolves +250
• To be relegated - Wolves and Sheffield United +550
• To score the least goals - Sheffield United +275
• Total points - Nottingham Forest over 40.5 & Aston Villa over 58.5 +330
• Top Arsenal goalscorer - Gabriel Jesus +150
• Top Chelsea goalscorer - Nicolas Jackson +150
• Top Newcastle United goalscorer - Callum Wilson +150
• Top Nottingham Forest goalscorer - Taiwo Awoniyi +150
• All four top team goalscorers parlay +3800

Wolves preseason has been tumultuous with a change in manager likely just days before kick-off. They're in financial trouble, sold their best player and look like relegation fodder. Sheffield United meanwhile has lost their top scorer and top assister from last season as well as their third top scorer.

Forest has had a much more calm preseason than last year and showed later in the season that they can be a solid Premier League outfit so I expect more consistency and improved results while I don't see any reason why Villa can't perform as well as they did last year, if not, even better.

Jesus is injured but should be back soon and scored 11 goals in 24 starts. If he starts 30 games, he will likely be the Gunners' top scorer. With Nkunku set to miss extended time, Jackson is the only Chelsea striker remaining and has looked good in preseason.

Chelsea confirm Christopher Nkunku has undergone surgery to his knee injury sustained in Chicago. 🚨🔵 #CFC

New signing could be out for up to 16 weeks. pic.twitter.com/fbI36rppl1

— Fabrizio Romano (@FabrizioRomano) August 8, 2023

Wilson scored 0.86 goals per 90 minutes compared to Isak's 0.59 so I'm backing the underdog and captain to lead his team while Awoniyi scored two goals more than Johnson for Forest despite playing little over half as many games. Again, I'll take the underdog to outscore his teammate again this season.

Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!

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