Flag Hunting: PGA Betting Picks - 3M Open

With the major championships officially in the rearview, the only thing left to settle on the PGA Tour is the race for the 2023 FedEx Cup. Just two stops remain in the regular season, and with playoff eligibility cut down to just 70 players this year, events like the 3M Open and Wyndham Championship will carry a far bigger weight to those looking to punch their ticket to Eastlake in a month's time.

For big names like Justin Thomas and Hideki Matsuyama (both currently sitting outside the top 50 in the FedEx Cup Standings), time is very much of the essence, while hot commodities like Sepp Straka and Emiliano Grillo will be looking to build on already stellar seasons and officially throw their names into the ring as contenders for the season-long title.

It’s unlikely we see Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm, or Rory McIlroy in either of the next two weeks, but for players that have failed to effectively earn a first-round bye, golf fans will be treated to the very same dynamic as we’ll see in Memphis for Round 1. It’s put up or shut up time on the PGA Tour - starting with the first of these wildcard weekends at TPC Twin Cities!

The Golf Course

TPC Twin Cities - 7,431 Yards - Par 71

The land of 10,000 lakes certainly lives up to its reputation this week, as TPC Twin Cities presents one of the more treacherous tests of golf we’ve seen in months on the PGA Tour schedule. 15 of the 18 holes here present some threat of water, and the 317 water balls collected by these 27 hazards last year were the most of any course on Tour. 

As such, keeping the ball in play off the tee is absolutely paramount, but unlike some of the other more waterlogged courses we visit on a regular basis (PGA National, Sawgrass, etc), TPC Twin Cities gives these players some generous landing areas off the tee. At 35-40 yards wide on average, elite drivers of the ball will be incentivized to push the ball as far down the fairway as they dare aim, and with rough comparable to Detroit GC or Silverado, there isn’t much reason for players to shy away from bailing out if there is a “safe side.” 

This combination of width and lack of stiff penalty outside of the hazards makes TPC Twin Cities a decidedly more driver-heavy course than your stereotypical hazardous Florida course. With a past champions list of Tony Finau, Cameron Champ, and Matthew Wolff, it is clear that length can provide a real advantage, but keep in mind that Adam Long, Sungjae Im, and Emiliano Grillo have both finished as runner-ups here over the last three years. I don’t believe any driving profile is out of consideration unless a player is particularly prone to spraying the ball off the tee.

Besides the water hazards, TPC Twin Cities is noticeably lacking in tangible hurdles to challenge the world’s best. The greens here are among the easiest to hit in regulation (72.7%), and the complexes themselves are among the easiest to putt on on the entire PGA Tour. Pure bentgrass greens are always some of the most player-friendly you’ll find in the world - particularly when they’re lacking in severe slope.

For reference, in 2022, TPC Twin Cities rated out in the bottom ten in putting difficulty from inside 5 feet, from 5-15 feet, and from outside 15 feet. You should go ahead and expect to see 15, 20, and 25-footers being poured in with regularity, and I’d be looking for players that have proven capable of producing spike-putting performances on similar surfaces.

Over 45% of historical approach shots have come from over 175 yards at TPC Twin Cities, but there are a collection of short Par 4’s here that will give players opportunities with a wedge in hand. From a proximity standpoint, I don’t see Twin Cities as a particularly heavy mid-iron course, and I’d be much more interested in players that excel from both >175 and <125 yards.

Iron play is often the most important stat on a weekly basis, but particularly so when the penalty for a wayward approach could mean a drop right back at your feet. 8 of the 18 holes at TPC Twin Cities come with some threat of hazard protecting its green, and since 2019, only Keith Mitchell has managed to finish inside the top five whilst losing strokes on approach. 

As you’d expect at a birdie party like the 3M Open, around the green play has meant next to nothing when projecting future success. In fact, two of the last three champions of this event have done so whilst losing strokes around the greens, and over ⅓ of Top 10 finishers over the last four years have lost strokes with their short games. It’s been a common theme on the PGA Tour over the last 2-3 months, but if you are having to rely on your short game around TPC Twin Cities, you weren’t likely to be contending for a win anyway.

Key Stats Roundup: 

• Total Driving (65/35 emphasis on accuracy over distance)
• Strokes Gained: Approach (special emphasis on Proximities >175 and <125)
• Birdie Chances Created
• Birdie or Better Percentage
• Par 5 Scoring
• Historical Bentgrass Putting

Scouting the Routing

For those looking to dabble in the live market this week, it will be imperative to contextualize a player’s position on the leaderboard alongside where he is on the golf course and which holes he still has left to play. 

The good news is, that for the first time in three weeks, we have some historical course data to comb through. Playing as a Par 71 with no drivable Par 4s, it stands to reason that the location of the three Par 5s will be paramount in determining a player's projected outcome on the holes he still has left to play. 

The back-nine holds the advantage in this sense, as two of the three Par 5’s reside on Twin Cities’ inward half. Over the first four years of this event, the 12th hole has played as the easiest hole on the course by some distance: holding a scoring average of 4.47 with a birdie or better rate of 52%. 

However, I’d advise caution to those chalking up a free birdie on the Par 5 18th hole, as although it does carry a birdie or better rate of 36%, the risk-reward nature of this sweeping dogleg right bordered by water makes it one of the clearest blow-up holes on property as well. 15 percent of players have carded a 6 on 18 through the years, and a whopping 6.5% have carded 7 or worse. I’m hesitant even calling 18 a clear birdie chance with variance ramped up to these extreme levels. If your player can manufacture a 4 here, he’ll be gaining nearly a full stroke on the field average.

Apart from those two holes, the seven others on the back nine are neither clear-cut birdie chances nor mind-boggling tests. Only the Par 4 10th (scoring average of 3.87) plays over a tenth of a stroke on either side of par, and the other six holes all fit the general ethos of the course we talked about in the preview section: water comes into play enough to juice up bogey rates, but premier ball-strikers should have no trouble generating birdie chances. 

The front side presents players with the clearest hurdles over the course of the round: as the 2nd, 3rd, and 9th holes play to a cumulative score of (0.59 over par), and carry bogey or worse rates of 25, 22, and 31% respectively. These three holes alone mitigate many of the clear birdie chances players will be getting at 1, 5, 6, and 7, and make the front half the tougher of the two nines by 0.52 shots.

When scouting adds in the live market, The 2nd and 9th holes are the only ones I’d designate as clear “Bogey Avoidance Opportunities, where par would cut the average field by two-tenths of a shot. There is a chance to catch books napping as players make the turn to the easier back-nine, but I’d be paying more attention to up-to-date Strokes Gained statistics. 

Almost regardless of what hole he’s playing, if a player is hitting it well around TPC Twin Cities, he’ll be more than capable of avoiding its many landmines and generating a bevy of birdie chances. On greens this straightforward, buying low on underperforming putters is the clearest path I see to mining value in-tournament.

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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

The Betting Card

Cameron Young (16-1)

It’s been a sudden surge back to relevance for a player recently in the midst of an emphatic midseason slump. After a two-and-a-half month span without a top-30 finish, Cameron Young shot 65-64 to grab the 36-hole lead at TPC Deer Run, then followed up with an eye-popping tee-to-green display around Royal Liverpool. The former Demon Deacon gained 16.82 shots with his driver and approach play, lapping a field full of the game's preeminent ball-strikers in the process. 

With the swing back in full flow for Cam, he’ll enter his 3M Open debut as one of the pre-eminent favorites to capture that elusive first PGA Tour victory. Young may not have the same resume here in the Twin Cities as some of his contemporaries at the top of the odds board, but he has contended at two of the better comparables we have in terms of winning score and agronomy (Detroit GC and TPC Deer Run), and has a T14 on his resume at a similarly waterlogged golf course at PGA National (gaining nearly 7 shots ball-striking in the process).

With seven top-three finishes already in his short career, Cam’s maiden victory has been on the docket for a while now within golfing circles. Given the elite numbers we’ve seen in the ball-striking department, mixed with the lack of upper-echelon talent at the top of this field, Young should be as emboldened as ever to strike while the iron is hot. If he’s at his best, there simply aren’t many guys on the planet that can keep up.

Ludvig Aberg (35-1)

Although we’ve only seen 5 iterations of Ludvig Aberg teeing it up as a professional, a win looks about as imminent as you could expect from a 23-year-old recent college graduate. The Texas Tech alum has already established himself as one of the premier drivers of the ball on Tour - averaging nearly 5 shots gained per tournament off the tee, and has found himself in contention on the weekend in the last two stateside events.

Ludvig’s elite combination of power and precision with the driver has also made him one of the preeminent Par 5 scorers in this field, and the iron game isn’t exactly lagging behind. Aberg ranks 3rd in this field over the last 3 months in Birdie Chances Created, and he’s paying looks off at a passable rate - ranking 7th in Birdie or Better Percentage. 

The game is as refined as we’ve seen out of a college product since the vaunted 2019 class of Wolff, Hovland, and Morikawa. Coincidentally, two of those three made their first real waves in professional golf right here at TPC Twin Cities. If Aberg brings his best, he’s certainly capable of emulating the breakneck pace at which each of them got their first professional win.

Stephan Jaeger (50-1)

Already a six-time winner on the Korn Ferry Tour, Stephan Jaeger looks to have finally found his footing on golf’s biggest stage in 2023. Since his full-time PGA Tour debut last year, Jaeger has shown remarkable improvement with the driver: jumping from 155th to 46th in Driving Distance and 56th from 184th in SG: OTT. This transformation of his biggest weakness into a palpable strength has propelled the German to six top-20 finishes and only two missed cuts in his last 20 starts - and an impressive 61st in the Season Long Standings.

Although he’s made marked improvements across the board, it has been in this summer swing of bentgrass birdie parties where Jaeger has really shown some tantalizing upside. He’s finished 9th, 11th, and 13th at the Rocket Mortgage, Byron Nelson, and John Deere Classic, and notably had the best ball-striking week of his PGA career at notable comp. course: PGA National (+5.0 OTT; +4.0 APP).

Over the last three months, Jaeger ranks 5th in Birdie or Better Rate, 6th in Birdie Chances Created, 10th in Par 5 Scoring, and 12th in Total Ball-striking. He’s gained strokes putting in five of his last seven starts on bent, and Twin Cities could well be the last chance he gets on a bentgrass course in 2023. The signs all point to him contending here in Minnesota. Let’s just hope he hasn’t lost that winning edge from his dominant days on the Korn Ferry.

Lucas Glover (50-1)

As most of this week’s marquee names are making their way back from two weeks in the British Isles, Lucas Glover will be looking to maintain the momentum he’s been building across the Midwest. Finishes of 5th, 6th, and 4th in his last three starts are his best-sustained run of form since he was a Top 20 player in the world (nearly 15 years ago), and the recent switch to the long-putter has produced the best three-week stretch on the greens we’ve seen from Glover in over two years.

Couple Glover’s newfound confidence with the flat stick with the aptitude he’s always possessed from tee-to-green, and you get a guy that should be feared on any course - but especially around one that emphasizes driving accuracy and long-iron play like TPC Twin Cities. Over the last three months, Glover ranks inside the top five in Total Ball-Striking, Good Drive Percentage, Fairway Percentage, SG: APP, and Birdie Chances Created. 

Given his recent play, I don’t see any reason why Lucas Glover should be priced behind names like Gary Woodland, Adam Hadwin, or J.T. Poston on odds boards. He carries about as high of a floor/ceiling combination as you’ll find outside of the top five/six names.

Doug Ghim (70-1)

Quietly in the midst of one of the best stretches of his career, Doug Ghim now gets a dream course fit this week in the Twin Cities. As one of the most reliable drivers of the ball in the game, the former Texas Longhorn has always excelled on penal golf courses that put a premium on driving accuracy, and over the last two months, Ghim has also showcased the premier iron play that once made him one of golf’s hottest amateur prospects.

Per strokes gained, Ghim has been one of the five best ball-strikers in the field since the start of May, and the Tour’s coinciding switch to bentgrass has done wonders for a chronically balky putter. Ghim has gained strokes putting in four straight starts coming into the week, and two of the seven best-putting performances of his career have come right here in Minnesota. 

With multiple top-15 finishes around venues like TPC Sawgrass, PGA West, Oakdale, and River Highlands, it’s clear Ghim thrives on courses where wayward misses are punished severely. The 3M seems about as good a spot as any, then, for the Texan to pay off this recent run of form with a win.

Peter Kuest (100-1)

Another entry into the argument as to why golf has the deepest talent pool in the sporting world, Peter Kuest has emerged from relative obscurity into one of the more exciting young talents on the PGA Tour. A former standout at Brigham Young, Kuest spent his first few years as a professional bouncing around the Korn Ferry and Challenger Tours in COVID-shortened seasons before AT&T took a shot on him with a sponsor’s invite at the Byron Nelson this past May. Kuest took full advantage of the opportunity - finishing T14 whilst leading the field in Driving Distance and SG: OTT.

Since then, he’s only continued to build his profile: coming 4th at the Rocket Mortgage and 17th at the John Deere in back-to-back weeks to secure special temporary membership. With unlimited opportunities to play now available to him, Kuest can now focus on doing what Tom Kim did with the same status just a year ago: win on the PGA Tour. 

The numbers more than back up this recent run of results, as Kuest rates out 3rd in this field in Total Ball-Striking since he’s come on Tour, and is one of just two players in this field to rank inside the top 10 in both Total Driving and SG: APP. For as long as he hits it, Kuest isn’t exceedingly inaccurate (23rd in Good Drive Percentage), and the fact that he’s gotten to scores of (-17), (-21), and (-14) in three of his first five PGA starts should tell you he has no trouble racking up birdies. With this ball-striking profile, I think he’s got far too much upside to pass on in the triple digits.

Best of luck guys, and Happy Hunting!

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