ESPN Undervalued, Overvalued Fantasy Football Draft Picks - Saquon Barkley, Breece Hall, DJ Moore, Cam Akers, more

Mike's analysis of ESPN fantasy football ADPs - players that overvalued and undervalued. His ESPN fantasy football sleepers and busts based on 2023 ADPs.

The NFL regular season is still over a month away. However, training camp recently started, meaning the fantasy football season is almost here. The preseason is just around the corner, and that’s when thousands of fantasy football drafts will begin to happen.

Some fantasy players like to draft early, while others prefer to wait until the last minute. Early drafters want to take advantage of the values in the ADP. Meanwhile, last-minute drafters want to avoid picking a player who gets hurt in the final preseason game or late in training camp.

Let’s look at some of the more overvalued and undervalued players, according to the ESPN ADP.

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Overvalued Players For Fantasy Football

Saquon Barkley (NYG): ADP 13.1 | RB6

After struggling with injuries earlier in his career, the superstar running back stayed healthy last year. Saquon Barkley ended the season as the RB6, averaging 16 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, his best fantasy points per game average since 2019. However, the former Penn State star’s production declined over the second half of the season. He was the RB4, averaging 14.7 yards per rushing attempt and 18.4 fantasy points per game over the first 10 weeks.

Unfortunately, Barkley was the RB16, averaging four yards per rushing attempt and 12.9 fantasy points per game over the final eight weeks last season. Furthermore, the veteran scored under 6.5 fantasy points in two of his final four contests. Thankfully, the former Penn State star signed the franchise tag after threatening to sit out the 2023 season. However, his second-half struggles last year are too much of a red flag for me to draft Barkley at his ADP.

Breece Hall (NYJ): ADP 30.8 | RB12

Breece Hall’s ADP has come down over the past several weeks. However, it is still too high for my liking. The superstar running back was outstanding last year, averaging 15.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per game as a rookie. Furthermore, he averaged 5.8 yards per rushing attempt and 4.13 yards after contact per attempt. Unfortunately, Hall’s rookie year got cut short after he suffered a torn ACL in Week 7.

The young superstar was the RB6 before suffering the season-ending knee injury. Furthermore, he averaged nearly six yards per rushing attempt as a rookie after his poor Week 1 performance. Unfortunately, Hall isn’t healthy. He started training camp on the Physically Unable to Perform list. While the second-year man could be ready for Week 1, running backs coming off a torn ACL tend to struggle in their first season back from the injury.

Deebo Samuel (SF): ADP 38.7 | WR15

There are some players you never want to draft in fantasy football. Deebo Samuel is one of those players for me. The veteran wide receiver had his best year in 2021, averaging 18.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Unfortunately, the former South Carolina star has struggled in his other seasons. Furthermore, he has missed nearly 25% of the games in his career because of various injuries.

More importantly, Samuel’s fantasy production fell off a cliff after San Francisco acquired Christian McCaffrey last year. The veteran was the WR10, averaging 12.9 fantasy points per game before the 49ers traded for the superstar running back. By comparison, Samuel was the WR59, averaging only nine fantasy points per game after the team acquired McCaffrey. The fact that the veteran has a higher ADP than Keenan Allen and Christian Watson is unacceptable.

Rachaad White (TB): ADP 52.2 | RB19

Rachaad White’s fantasy value took off earlier this offseason after the Buccaneers released Leonard Fournette. Last year, the veteran had 262 touches, including 73 receptions. Many thought Tampa Bay would add a big-name veteran or a high-priced rookie. Instead, the team only signed veteran Chase Edmonds and undrafted free agent rookie Sean Tucker this offseason. Therefore, White should have a featured role in 2023.

However, the second-year man has some ugly stats attached to his name. Last year, White averaged only 3.7 yards per rushing attempt and 2.3 yards after contact per attempt. Furthermore, he lacks explosiveness. 6.2% of his rushing attempts went for 10 or more yards and only 3.1% were for 15 or more yards last season. James Conner and Alexander Mattison have a later ADP than White. I’ll take both over the former Arizona State star.

Michael Thomas (NO): ADP 100.2 | WR37

Last year, Michael Thomas was the WR9 on a points-per-game basis. He was averaging 14.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per contest, only 0.2 points fewer than A.J. Brown. Yet, the Philadelphia superstar was the WR5, while the New Orleans veteran was the WR114 after playing only three games. Unfortunately, that’s not where the injuries stop for Thomas. The former Ohio State star has played only 20% of the games over the past three years because of injury.

Meanwhile, Chris Olave has taken over as the No. 1 wide receiver in New Orleans, which will limit Thomas’ target share when on the field. More importantly, the veteran had an 18.8% touchdown rate last season after having only a 6.8% touchdown rate over the first four years of his career. There is no reason why Thomas should have an ADP inside the top 10 rounds.

Undervalued Players For Fantasy Football

Chris Olave (NO): ADP 43.2 | WR16

The former Ohio State superstar was the WR25 last year, averaging 10.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Despite catching passes from Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston, Chris Olave had meaningful fantasy value. However, the Saints signed Derek Carr this offseason, giving the team their best quarterback since Drew Brees’ best years. Yet, the second-year receiver is vastly underrated at his current ADP.

Olave and Garrett Wilson were the only two rookie wide receivers with over 1,000 receiving yards in 2022. Yet, Wilson is being drafted nearly two rounds earlier than Olave. Meanwhile, New Orleans lost multiple wide receivers this offseason, including Jarvis Landry. Yet, the team did very little to replace them. More importantly, Michael Thomas is arguably the most injury-prone player in the NFL. No one on the roster can threaten Olave’s projected target share in 2023.

Miles Sanders (CAR): ADP 58.1 | RB20

The 2021 season was one to forget for fantasy players with Miles Sanders on their roster. The veteran running back failed to score a touchdown that year despite having 163 touches. However, the former Penn State star rebounded last year. Sanders was the RB13, averaging 12.2 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Furthermore, he had 11 rushing touchdowns, beating his career total by two entering the season.

Yet, the veteran running back is vastly underrated after joining the Panthers this offseason. Sanders won’t have Jalen Hurts stealing goal-line touchdowns anymore. More importantly, the former Penn State star should have a career year in the passing game. Running backs averaged 116.5 targets per year in the four full years Frank Reich was with the Indianapolis Colts.

DJ Moore (CHI): ADP 62.6 | WR22

DJ Moore spent the first five years of his career with the Carolina Panthers, catching passes from subpar quarterbacks. Thankfully, that won’t be the case any longer after the star wide receiver got traded to Chicago this offseason. While Justin Fields had only 17 passing touchdowns last season, Cole Kmet was the only Bear with over 500 receiving yards. However, that won’t be the case this year.

The star has been a consistent WR2 for fantasy players since his rookie season. Moore has totaled at least 1,150 receiving yards or seven touchdowns in four consecutive years. More importantly, he and Fields have already built a strong connection. No one should be surprised when Moore has a career year in his first season in Chicago.

Diontae Johnson (PIT): ADP 65.1 | WR24

Last year, Diontae Johnson had the worst season of his career. He was the WR39, averaging only 8.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. However, the veteran was the WR9 in 2021, averaging 13.8 fantasy points per game. More importantly, Johnson finished second in the NFL with 169 targets that year. The star wide receiver had eight receiving touchdowns in 2021, a career-high.

The veteran had a poor fantasy season last year because of a lack of touchdown production. Johnson averaged 6.7 receiving touchdowns per year over the first three seasons of his career. Unfortunately, he had zero touchdowns last year. Yet, Johnson finished seventh in the NFL with 147 targets (8.7 per game), down only 1.3 targets per game compared to the year before. Fantasy players should expect a bounce-back season from the veteran wide receiver.

Cam Akers (LAR): ADP 80.5 | RB26

Cam Akers might be the most polarizing player in fantasy football. Some fantasy players are die-hard believers, while others are skeptical. Last year, the veteran struggled at the start of the season. Yet, he ended the year on fire. Akers was the RB2 over the final four weeks, averaging 18.3 half-point PPR fantasy points per game.

Furthermore, the former Florida State star forced a missed tackle on 22.7% of his rushing attempts in those four contests. More importantly, Akers had a career-high in rushing yards and touchdowns last year despite all of the issues during the first half of the season. Meanwhile, the only addition the Rams made to the backfield this offseason was sixth-round rookie Zach Evans. Akers is prime to have a career year in 2023.

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