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Kyle Ringstad's MLB DFS prop picks for RIVAL fantasy contests for Wednesday, July 5th, 2023. Sign up for RIVAL fantasy and use his MLB DFS prop picks to win money.
Welcome to our new series covering RIVAL Fantasy picks for MLB! We will focus on two fantasy contest types offered on RIVAL - Challenges and FantasyBook (Over/Under).
Challenges are H2H matchups between two MLB players. You choose which one you think will score the most fantasy points, then place a bet to back it. If another user decides on the other player at any time before the contest, the bet is on! If your player scores more fantasy points, you win 1.8x your bet.
FantasyBook is more traditional over/under DFS prop picks - whether you think pitchers and hitters will score Over or Under the set lines, and choosing your amount. You can parlay multiple picks together to vastly increase the juice (ex: 3 picks = 5x your bet).
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RIVAL Challenge Picks
J.P France over Chase Anderson
This one is easy. While the advanced metrics aren't pretty for either pitcher, France's 14.93 FPTS per game average dwarfs Anderson's ugly 5.49 FPTS per game average. France also faces the Rockies - one of the worst-hitting teams outside their friendly confines of Coors Field - while Anderson will square off against the dangerous Astros lineup. It's France all day and night here.
J.P France over Willson Contreras
Any time you get a semi-decent pitcher with a challenge matchup against a non-superstar hitter, it's a smash play. We can be even more confident in France outscoring Contreras because of his positive matchup against the Rockies, a team that has issues hitting outside Coors Field.
Eduardo Rodriguez over J.P. France
RIVAL Over/Under Picks
Justin Steele (OVER), Bobby Miller (UNDER), Lance Lynn (UNDER)
Steele has the highest FPTS line on the board today, but he has shown us enough to have confidence in him hitting the over against a Milwaukee squad that ranks near the bottom of the league in OPS (.690) and wOBA (.304) vs. RHP this season. They also strike out at the sixth-highest rate (24.3%) in the split.
Miller got off to an incredible start in his big league career but has fallen on tougher times lately with 14.55, -4.8, and 2.15 FPTS over his last three starts. The Pirates certainly aren't anything special, but Miller's FPTS line is the second-highest on the board today, and I don't see him getting there.
Lynn has finished under the FPTS line he needs tonight in five of his last six outings, with his 16-strikeout gem against Seattle looking more and more like a mirage as time passes. The Blue Jays hold a sizeable 4.8-run implied total tonight, and I want no part in targeting Lynn against their dangerous lineup.
Ronald Acuna Jr. (OVER), Esteury Ruiz (UNDER), Ian Happ (UNDER)
Acuna has been scorching at the plate, scoring at least 10 FPTS in 13 consecutive games coming into tonight. He averages over 13 FPTS per game on the season, so even an "average" night out of him will still get us over the hump. If you need more convincing, Cal Quantrill and his bloated 6.18 ERA will start on the mound against him tonight.
Ruiz has typically done his damage on the base paths this season (42 steals), but I'm not sure he'll get the chance today. Opposing starter Eduardo Rodriguez is having a spectacular season (2.13 ERA), particularly excelling at limiting walks (6.1% BB%) and hard-hit balls (21.7% hard-hit rate). The A's have a 3.6-run implied total, and I do not love targeting the over for anything on Oakland today.
Happ hasn't been hitting well, and we will bet on that to continue tonight against Adrian Houser and the Brewers bullpen. Happ hasn't exceeded five FPTS over eight consecutive contests, and Houser has been solid as he has allowed two earned runs or less in four of his last five outings.
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