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Kyle Ringstad's MLB DFS prop picks for RIVAL fantasy contests for Wednesday, June 14th, 2023. Sign up for RIVAL fantasy and use his MLB DFS prop picks to win money.
Welcome to our new series covering RIVAL Fantasy picks for MLB! We will focus on two fantasy contest types offered on RIVAL - Challenges and FantasyBook (Over/Under).
Challenges are H2H matchups between two MLB players. You choose which one you think will score the most fantasy points, then place a bet to back it. If another user chooses the other player at any time before the contest, the bet is on! If your player scores more fantasy points, you win 1.8x your bet.
FantasyBook is more traditional over/under DFS prop picks - whether you think pitchers and hitters will score Over or Under the set lines, and choosing your amount. You can parlay multiple picks together to vastly increase the juice (ex: 3 picks = 5x your bet).
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RIVAL Challenge Picks
Spencer Strider over Justin Verlander
A battle of generational aces - we have to love this. Strider represents the new wave of starting pitchers in the MLB, while the 40-year-old Verlander has established elite numbers for most of his 18 MLB seasons. Verlander dominated when the Florida Marlins were still a thing, and baseball games could take five hours to finish. Strider is the much more consistent, higher-ceiling pitcher, though, as he holds an unbelievable 40.3% strikeout rate, solid 3.79 ERA (2.86 xERA), and elite advanced metrics. Verlander, meanwhile, has struggled to a 4.85 ERA (4.11 xERA) and the lowest strikeout rate (19.9%) of his career. Today's matchups drive the nail in the coffin as Strider faces Detroit while Verlander will battle with the Yankees.
Luis Castillo over Bailey Ober
As you'll read below, Castillo is in great form recently and will face a Miami lineup that struggles against right-handed pitching and holds the lowest implied total on the slate. Ober has been consistently effective for the Twins, but his 23.6% strikeout rate is uninspiring, and the Brewers are a slightly more difficult matchup than the Marlins. I'm backing Castillo with the higher ceiling he brings to the table, as his strikeout rate (30%) and easier matchup should allow him to exceed Ober's score today.
BONUS: Merrill Kelly over Michael Lorenzen, Drew Smyly over Michael Lorenzen, Mookie Betts over Edouard Julien, Spencer Strider over Gerrit Cole
RIVAL Over/Under Picks
Spencer Strider (OVER), Luis Castillo (OVER), Reid Detmers (UNDER)
This one is easy. Strider is averaging 24.61 FPTS per game, which is well over his line for today. He leads the MLB with an astronomical 40.3% strikeout rate, and the Tigers strike out at the fifth-highest rate (24.4%) against right-handed pitchers. It's a match made in heaven.
Castillo, like Strider, has a FPTS per game average (21.47) that's well over his FPTS line today. His production has hit another level lately, too, as he's averaging 27.4 FPTS per game over his last four starts. Today, he faces a Marlins lineup that ranks in the bottom eight in OPS, ISO, and wOBA vs. RHP and holds the lowest implied total on the slate at just 3.1 runs.
Detmers is our pitching fade of the day on RIVAL. The hard-throwing lefty has a solid 27.2% strikeout rate and great barrel and whiff rates, but he's allowing too many hard-hit balls (44.2%) and his ERA (4.79) and xERA (4.62) isn't where we'd like them to be. He has exceeded his FPTS line for tonight in just two of his last seven starts. To top it all off, the Rangers boast one of the most explosive offenses in the entire league. They rank third in OPS and wOBA against left-handed pitchers, and they're projecting to score 4.9 runs today.
BONUS: Mike Clevinger (UNDER), Josiah Gray (UNDER)
Bryan Reynolds (UNDER), Ke'Bryan Hayes (UNDER), Ozzie Albies (OVER)
Going under on Reynolds today feels like stealing. He somehow holds the highest FPTS line among all hitters today, and he hasn't reached double-digit FPTS in ten consecutive games. Opposing starter Drew Smyly has been well above average from a run-prevention standpoint, holding a 3.27 ERA (3.66 xERA) while limiting hard hits (30.8%) and walks (6.7%).
We're doubling down on Smyly and a league-average bullpen holding down the Pirates today. As referenced above, Smyly is a solid pitcher, and for some reason, RIVAL has two Pittsburgh hitters with the top FPTS lines today. Hayes has been fine this season, but he's averaging about two FPTS less than he needs to score today to hit his over. That's a pass for me.
Albies, meanwhile, has the second-lowest FPTS line on the board today. The 26-year-old (geez...he's only 26?!) has been in great form, posting a .849 OPS with three homers and two steals over 36 at-bats in June. Opposing starter Michael Lorenzen has been solid on the surface through ten starts (3.75 ERA, 3.84 xERA), but he's been blown up for at least five earned runs on four separate occasions this season.
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