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Today's free MLB prop betting picks for Saturday, May 20, 2023. Use Dan Palyo's top baseball prop picks and MLB prop bet recommendations to win money on sports books.
Saturdays are all about day baseball and continuous MLB (and betting) action all day long! DFS can be challenging on the weekends with split slates. With bets, we can pick and choose all our favorite spots from the early afternoon, late afternoon, and evening games and then sit back and enjoy the show!
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Saturday, May 20, 2023. If you ever want to chat about strikeout props or any other MLB bets, you can find me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS. Good luck today!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Braxton Garrett OVER 4.5 strikeouts (-110 DraftKings)
He's back! One of my favorite K prop pitchers last season was Garrett as the books were slow to adjust his numbers after he secured a spot in the Miami rotation midseason. He's starting to heat up now and is finally getting a few nice matchups after he had a difficult stretch there with Cleveland and Atlanta twice.
He gave up 11 earned runs in one start to Atlanta, which is why his ERA is so ugly. We are looking at a pitcher who has 14 strikeouts in his last 10+ innings and he hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in all but two starts (the 11-run game and one other four-run start).
The Giants are a top-five matchup for lefties with a 26% strikeout rate. I like Garrett for six or more here, so you guys know this is a chance to build a ladder on a low number. I will probably take it up to eight strikeouts with alt props today.
Logan Gilbert OVER 4.5 strikeouts (-160 DraftKings)
Gilbert got stuck on four strikeouts last week against Detroit and probably bummed a lot of bettors out. But his larger body of work is still really solid. That start last week was probably the outlier as he had whiffed at least six hitters in every other start this season.
You can see the juice is on the over here but for good reason. Gilbert has a 29.5% strikeout rate on the year. Atlanta, while dangerous with the bats, still strikes out over 23% of the time, which is slightly above average. My money is on a bounce-back outing from Gilbert today and I doubt we see him at this 4.5 number much for the rest of this year.
Louie Varland OVER 5.5 strikeouts (-115 DraftKings)
The Minnesota rookie has impressed so far through four starts, striking out six or more in each one and facing some good competition (Yankees, Padres, and both Chicago teams).
He has a fantastic 28% strikeout rate but an equally impressive 14.9% SwStr%, which shows that he's generating a ton of swings and misses in the strike zone. The Angels are a slightly below-average matchup based on their ability to score runs, but they can be had for strikeouts. We saw Varland's teammate Joe Ryan do just that last night as he racked up nine Ks against them.
Other K props I'm betting are Mitch Keller over 5.5 (based on his form, not the best matchup) and Logan Webb over 5.5 (based on the matchup since Miami stinks against RHP).
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Josh Jung OVER 1.5 total bases (+135 DraftKings)
There are a lot of hitter props to choose from on a full slate of games, but I am honing in on a couple of lefty mashers in great spots today and looking to grab some plus odds while doing so.
For the Rangers, it's been Adolis Garcia stealing the headlines as he continues to mash homers at an incredible rate. Rookie third baseman Josh Jung has been having himself quite a year, too. He leads the team this year so far with a .428 wOBA and .357 ISO against LHPs. I love the way his profile lines up against Kyle Freeland, who throws a sinker/cutter combo and a bunch of offspeed stuff.
You can bet Garcia at +130 as well if you'd like, but Jung has the best numbers and slightly better odds. Either way, I want a piece of this Texas offense against a mediocre pitcher.
Randy Arozarena OVER 1.5 total bases (+110 DraftKings)
"Aroz" has been crushing the baseball all season. His splits against lefties are filthy, though in a small sample size of course. He has a .500 wOBA and ISO against LHPs this season and he's facing a lefty in Eric Lauer who has really poor numbers against righties. Lauer is a fly ball pitcher and has allowed a .387 wOBA to righties this year along with a .283 ISO, too.
If you're looking for another Tampa guy, then Wander Franco is my second pick. He's been great against LHPs this year (and so far in his career), too.
This game isn't posted on the books yet, but when the Yankees-Reds props come out, give me Anthony Rizzo's total base prop and maybe even the HR prop in that game!
Good luck, RotoBallers, let's have some fun today and make some money!
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