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Welcome to our daily NBA DFS picks and recommendations for the playoffs! The intensity and stakes are high as we navigate through the postseason, and I'm here to provide the insights and recommendations you need to gain a competitive edge and maximize your winnings. Each day, I'll share my top picks and analyze critical factors impacting player performance and game outcomes, such as injuries, player matchups, and team strategies. It's important to note that value plays tend to shrink in the playoffs, so we'll focus on finding high-value, consistent players with solid matchups. Get ready for the excitement and intensity of NBA playoff DFS, grab your coffee, and let's dominate the competition together.
Single-game slates are a whole different animal than the ones we typically work with. The difference is the way you set your lineups on FanDuel and DraftKings. On FanDuel, you play five players in a lineup, and you get multiplier bonuses for MVP (2x), STAR (1.5x), and PRO (1.2x) spots. The pricing stays uniform, and positions don't come into play. On DraftKings, you play six players in a lineup, and only one of them gets a multiplier bonus, the Captain (1.5x). The significant change with DraftKings is that they make you pony up 1.5x salary to select your Captain, which also plays into lineup construction. There's a strong chance that you will share lineups with other people tonight if you're just blindly using optimizers, which makes identifying the correct contrarian plays all the more critical on slates like these.
Here are my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for FanDuel and DraftKings on 5/14/23. Keep an eye on RotoBaller’s NBA injury news and also our full NBA injury report today to stay up to date before lineups are locked.
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DraftKings and FanDuel Captains/MVP - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Jayson Tatum - ($16,500 DK Captain, $17,500 FD)
Tatum has had some brutal shooting games, but his 5-for-21 showing in Game 6 was particularly tough to watch. He has put up at least 62 DK points in four of his last seven games, though, which no one on this slate can match (including Embiid). Boston is an all-around complete team, but they go as their superstar goes, and I think Tatum will come out with something to prove in this elimination game on his home floor. Another 60-burger is well within the range of outcomes here.
Joel Embiid - ($17,100 DK Captain, $17,000 FD)
Superstars not shooting well seems to be a recurring theme in this series. It's inconsequential because shooting percentages don't factor into daily fantasy scoring. Embiid is still playing heavy minutes and taking a ton of shots, and while we need him to hit a double-double to hit value at his salary, he has accomplished that in three of his last four games. He also has recorded three, four, zero, and four blocks over his last four contests, which can be huge for his fantasy score on FanDuel, where defensive stats count for more. Embiid will be looking for his shot early and often, and as long as he stays out of foul trouble, he'll be a player we want in a multiplier spot.
James Harden - ($15,300 DK Captain, $15,000 FD)
Harden is the logical third choice at the Captain/MVP slot today, with Jaylen Brown putting up mediocre production since Game 4 of this series. He put up 45 real-life points and 61.25 DK points in Game 1 with Embiid sidelined, but he outdid himself by producing 78 DK points in Game 4 with Embiid in the lineup. Harden has shown throughout his entire career that he's plenty capable of putting up video-game-like numbers, and while he has had a few rough shooting games in the playoffs, he does enough with rebounds, assists, blocks, and steals to be a helpful fantasy producer outside of scoring. The Celtics will remain focused on defending Embiid, and it wouldn't shock me at all if Harden winds up with the top fantasy score on the slate.
Others to consider (FanDuel): STAR/PRO slots only - Jaylen Brown, Robert Williams, Marcus Smart, Tyrese Maxey
Others to consider (DraftKings): Jaylen Brown, Robert Williams, Malcolm Brogdon
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DraftKings and FanDuel Utility Plays - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Robert Williams - ($6,000 DK, $8,500 FD)
Time Lord is one of my favorite plays on the slate, assuming he remains in the starting lineup. He played 28 minutes and scored 26.25 DK points in Game 6 after getting the starting nod, and if we expect similar production today, he will be a player we need to get to. He's about a 1.00 FPTS/min player, but he can spike for massive rebounds and block totals in the games he receives starter-level minutes. He notched 44.75 DK points with a 13/15/3/2/2 performance back in Game 4 of the first round against the Hawks, and he's capable of approaching those numbers again today.
De'Anthony Melton - ($4,800 DK, $7,000 FD)
It's all-or-nothing with Melton, but we must mix some uncomfortable cheap players to fit as much of Tatum, Embiid, and Harden into lineups as possible. Melton broke the slate with a 37 DK point performance in Game 3, scoring 14 points to pair with his eight rebounds, one assist, one block, and four steals. He's mostly in there for his defense and his shooting, and while his shot has not gone in over the three games since his outburst, he's still playing mid-20s minutes and consistently contributing in the blocks and steals departments. I don't see any reason he won't keep playing the role he has - we need his shot to catch back on.
Malcolm Brogdon - ($6,600 DK, $9,500 FD)
The newly-minuted NBA Sixth Man of the Year has kept it rolling in the playoffs. He's averaging 29.2 DK points per game through six games of the Eastern Conference Finals, most notably popping off for 38.5 DK points in Game 2. He's shooting well from the field and three this series, and he does enough throughout the rest of the box score to vault himself near the top of the "value" board today. He'll continue operating as the sixth man, which gives him better usage and production opportunities as he sees a good amount of playing time against Philly's second unit.
Others to consider (FanDuel): Al Horford, Derrick White, Tobias Harris, P.J. Tucker, Marcus Smart, Tyrese Maxey
Others to consider (DraftKings): Georges Niang, Paul Reed, Al Horford, Derrick White, P.J. Tucker
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