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Happy Monday and happy May, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league. That's why I'm super stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks once again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. Let's hope that postseason success rolls into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Monday, May 1, 2023. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 15-11 (+2.35 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Cubs @ Nationals
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: WSH +112
CHC: Drew Smyly | WSH: MacKenzie Gore
After being able to bounce back on Sunday with two wins, we'll look to keep the momentum going on Monday. We'll start out in our nation's capital, where the Cubs and Nationals will take the field this evening.
The visiting Cubs will send Drew Smyly to the mound. Smyly (2-1, 3.21 ERA) had a so-so outing against the Padres on Wednesday after taking a perfect game into the eighth inning in his prior start. The veteran lefty projects to a 4.18 xFIP in this one against a Washington lineup that has actually played well against lefties, but projects to just a .301 wOBA in this one.
The home team will also be sending a southpaw to the mound in the form of MacKenzie Gore. Gore (3-1, 3.00 ERA), a big piece in the trade that sent Juan Soto to San Diego last season, appears to be turning into a return the Nationals can be proud of. He's coming off a win against the Mets where he allowed just one earned run while striking out 10. However, he projects to a 4.42 xFIP tonight against a Cubs lineup that ranks second in wOBA (.365) and wRC+ (128) against lefties.
We're getting solid odds on the Cubs here in my opinion, at just -132 on the moneyline at FanDuel Sportsbook. This is largely in part due to the Cubs traveling up from Miami while the Nationals played at home yesterday. Nevertheless, I'll back Drew Smyly and a Cubs lineup that crushes lefties to lift Gore from the game early and attack that Washington bullpen.
Pick: Cubs Moneyline (-132), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.3 units to win 1 unit.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Reds @ Padres
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: SD -215
CIN: Luke Weaver | SD: Blake Snell
We'll look for a sweep as we head out west, where the Reds and Padres will open up a series in San Diego. Rather than a full game play here, we'll focus on the first five innings.
The Reds will send Luke Weaver to the mound for his third start of the season. Weaver (0-1, 7.71 ERA) has been... an interesting case for the Reds across his first couple of starts. While the ERA isn't pretty by any means, he has struck out 16 batters across just 11.2 innings of work. Today, however, he projects to a 4.12 xFIP against a Padres lineup that will look to play up to their projected .343 wOBA and get hot against right-handed pitching, where they've been in the middle of the pack this season.
Speaking of the Padres, they'll send Blake Snell to the mound. Snell (0-4, 5.48 ERA) is not having the season many expected this season. The walk rate is high and he's not getting deep into games, going five starts without pitching into the sixth inning. Nevertheless, he projects to a 3.41 xFIP and a 32.74% strikeout rate against a Reds lineup that brings in a .309 wOBA (20th) and 84 wRC+ (23rd) against lefties this season.
I'll take the Padres -0.5 here, which we're getting at -148 on FanDuel Sportsbook. I like this play but don't love it, so we'll risk just one unit here.
Pick: Padres F5 -0.5 (-148), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.68 units.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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