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Joe Nicely analyzes the fantasy football impact from the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft. This article breaks down the good, bad, and ugly fantasy outlooks for players involved in the 2023 NFL Draft's first-round picks.
The first round of the 2023 NFL Draft may have been devoid of true slam-dunk superstars, but what it lacked in certainty, it sure made up for in entertainment value, as nearly every pick seemed like it could go a number of ways.
It was a night marked by a flurry of trades, as well as some surprising picks and shocking developments, including quarterback Will Levis' slide completely out of the first round.
In this article, we'll discuss the good, the bad, and the ugly of what was ultimately an exciting first round by diving into the fantasy fallout from some of the NFL Draft's most notable opening night selections.
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The Good
Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts
There are undoubtedly still questions surrounding the raw, but physically gifted Richardson, who was perhaps the most divisive QB prospect in this year's draft. While there are lots of important steps ahead in the Florida product's development, his landing spot felt like a crucial part of the process, and this Indy environment was the best possible outcome.
New Colts head coach Shane Steichen was brought in from the Philadelphia Eagles, where he helped to develop Jalen Hurts into one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the league. In Richardson, he'll have a pupil that possesses off-the-charts physical tools that includes size, running ability, and a rocket arm.
In addition to Steichen's tutelage, Richardson will be surrounded by a very capable supporting cast that includes Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman, and Alec Pierce. Indy's offseason acquisition of Gardner Minshew will allow the still-just-20-years-old rookie time to develop at his own pace. While Richardson might not be the Colts Day One starter this season, he has the potential to make an enormous fantasy impact when he does get on the field.
Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
Considered by most the best running back prospect since Saquon Barkley, pretty much any landing spot was going to be good for Bijan Robinson and his new team, but going to an Atlanta Falcons squad that is one of the NFL's most run-oriented offenses sends Robinson's fantasy prospects into the stratosphere.
Falcons head coach Arthur Smith has brought his run-first philosophy to Atlanta from his time as the offensive coordinator of the Tennessee Titans. Smith's offense ran the ball at a 55.29% clip in 2022, the second-highest rate in the NFL.
Despite the impressive rookie campaign of Tyler Allgeier and the presence of big-play threat Cordarrelle Patterson, Smith and the Falcons organization must view Robinson as a next-gen Derrick Henry through which to run this offense and were willing to invest a top-10 draft pick in the Texas product as a result.
Thanks to his overall talent, three-down back ability, and workhorse potential in Atlanta's run-at-all-cost offensive scheme, Robinson immediately jumps into the top-five overall fantasy RB conversation and is firmly the "it's not even close" overall number one in dynasty formats.
Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens
It was a great day for Lamar Jackson, who both secured the bag (five-years, $260 million) and received a massive upgrade to his pass-catching corps with Baltimore's selection of Zay Flowers late in the first round.
After struggling with a revolving door of patchwork receivers for the last couple of years, Jackson suddenly has a group of weapons that includes elite tight end Mark Andrews, newly-signed Odell Beckham Jr., and an exciting prospect in Flowers.
A multi-year producer at Boston College, the 5'9" burner is a bit undersized, but can play both inside and out, while giving Jackson a legitimate downfield threat that boasts 4.42 speed. New Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken is known as an innovative mind and it will be interesting to see what he cooks up with the dynamic rookie and the former NFL MVP, whose fantasy production sagged in 2022 prior to his season-ending injury.
Jordan Addison, WR, Minnesota Vikings
The 2021 Biletnikoff Award winner's draft stock slipped a bit due to a ho-hum 4.49 40-yard dash time and his production dropping slightly following a transfer from Pitt to USC. However, Addison has proven himself to be a versatile receiver and sharp route runner that now lands in a juicy spot with the Minnesota Vikings.
Addison should quickly assume the WR2 role in the Vikes offense vacated by the now-departed Adam Thielen. He'll have a chance to make an immediate fantasy impact in a Minnesota offense that finished 2022 ranked third in the NFL in team pass play percentage in head coach Kevin O'Connell's first year at the helm. Addison is a savvy, polished prospect that should thrive in the role of playing Robin to Justin Jefferson's Batman in this high-powered offense. He has a terrific chance to lead all rookie WRs in fantasy production in 2023.
The Bad
C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans
This isn't a knock on Houston taking C.J. Stroud with the second overall pick, or even a knock on Stroud as a prospect. However, his fantasy upside – at least in the short term – appears to be somewhat capped due to his landing spot with the Texans.
The Ohio State product will transition from an explosive and proven offensive scheme in Columbus, where he was surrounded by a superstar group of receivers, to well, not that in Houston. Stroud will embark on his NFL journey under a first-year, defensive-minded head coach in DeMeco Ryans and new Texans OC Bobby Slowik, who Ryans brought with him from the San Francisco 49ers.
It isn't hard to imagine that this coaching duo wants to incorporate the Niners' run-heavy, zone blocking scheme in Houston, though Stroud himself offers little in the way of rushing upside, as he rarely left the pocket in college. When the Texans do throw the ball, Stroud's current supporting cast will likely offer limited support, as his receiving corps is expected to be led by Nico Collins and Robert Woods.
Jordan Love, QB, Green Bay Packers
I'll give it to the Green Bay Packers front office...at least they're consistent. Green Bay never drafted a wide receiver in the first round during Aaron Rodgers' 18-year tenure with the franchise (they haven't drafted a WR in the first round since 2002!) and the organization is giving expected 2023 starter Jordan Love the same treatment.
While Christian Watson did show flashes of brilliance down the stretch of his rookie campaign, the Packers' wide receiver room is still unsettlingly thin. Following Allen Lazard's exit, Green Bay's current roster at the position features Watson, Romeo Doubs, Jeff Cotton, Bo Melton, and Samori Toure. Yikes.
Instead of bolstering that spotty WR corps with a pick like Ohio State's Jaxon Smith-Njigba – a player that was widely considered the draft's top wideout and was still available - in an attempt to surround the inexperienced Love with some talent, the Packers elected to focus on the defensive side of the ball, tabbing Iowa EDGE rusher Lukas Van Ness with the 13th pick of the first round. With a talented backfield comprised of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon, we can expect the Packers to lean on the run game in '23, limiting Love's potential fantasy impact.
The Ugly
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions
Ok, maybe ugly isn't the correct label here, but shocking feels pretty fair. Fantasy grinders dreamed of the dynamic Gibbs landing with a team like the Bengals or Chiefs at the end of the first round. However, those hopes were dashed when the Detroit Lions surprisingly took the Alabama running back off the board with the 12th pick of the night...and the Lions organization was PUMPED about it.
This isn't labeled as ugly because Gibbs isn't an exciting talent or even because he isn't a good fit with a Lions team that wants to play hard-nosed football. It's just that it was a very unexpected move from a franchise that just recently signed former Bears RB David Montgomery to a backfield that already includes a talented, though often-injured D'Andre Swift.
Just a day after the close of Round 1, the Detroit Lions sent Swift to the Philadelphia Eagles in a trade. Even though Swift has now been moved, the Gibbs is still looking at a time-share situation with Montgomery, which means from an organizational standpoint, the Lions just spent the No. 12 overall pick on a committee running back.
Gibbs is talented enough – and Detroit's offensive scheme is creative enough – to make this (eventually) work out, but this weird landing spot hampers his short-term fantasy value in a way we couldn't have anticipated prior to the first round of the draft.
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