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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 4/21/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.
Happy Friday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league. That's why I'm super stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks once again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. Let's hope that postseason success rolls into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Friday, April 21, 2023. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 12-6-0 (+5.19 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - White Sox @ Rays
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: TB -168
CWS: Michael Kopech | TB: Calvin Faucher
I'll start off today down in St. Petersburg, where we'll be taking a look at probably the hottest team in baseball in the Rays as the White Sox come into town. We won't be betting on the Rays here though, we'll actually take a look at the game total of 8.5.
The visiting White Sox will send Michael Kopech to the mound. Kopech (0-2, 6.32 ERA) will be making his fourth start of the young season. After a strong start against the Pirates, Kopech struggled against the Orioles, allowing three runs on six hits and four walks across five innings last Saturday. He projects to a 4.83 xFIP against a Rays team that has been scorching hot to start the season.
Across from him, the Rays will be sending lefty Calvin Faucher to the mound. Faucher (0-0, 4.15 ERA) has made just one start in the young season, throwing 2.2 innings before giving way to the bullpen. He projects to a 4.36 xFIP while he's in there against a White Sox team that has struggled but hits lefties well.
While I am a bit concerned with the Rays seemingly having a "bullpen game" here, I think they'll do more than enough damage to carry us to this over, which we're getting at -115 on FanDuel.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-115) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.15 units to win 1 unit.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Rockies @ Phillies
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: PHI -290
COL: Noah Davis | PHI: Aaron Nola
I'll head out to Philly for the second play of the day, as we'll look at an F5 line in this one. The Phillies have been relatively tough to figure out this season, but after watching basically every game so far, I have a read here.
The Rockies will be sending Noah Davis to the mound. Davis (0-0, 0.00 ERA) was pretty impressive in his lone start in the season, tossing five scoreless. However, he did allow three hits and three walks in that start, so I believe he's due for some regression. His projected 5.07 xFIP shows me that my data model agrees.
Conversely, the Phillies will be sending Aaron Nola (1-2, 5.91 ERA) to the mound. Nola has been nothing short of frustrating to watch as a Phillies fan through his first four starts of the season. However, I believe he's due for some positive regression here as he settles into the season. He projects a 2.77 xFIP against a Rockies lineup that has scored four or more runs just twice over the last nine days.
After the Chicago series, I was expecting the Phillies to turn things up, especially against a Rockies team that had dropped eight straight prior to last night's 5-0 win. That loss was typical Phillies, but I expect them to bounce back behind their "1-B" starter tonight. The odds sit at -170 as I'm typing this. While I'm not confident enough to drop 1.7 units on it, I'll be willing to put a unit and a half down.
Pick: Phillies F5 -0.5, FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.5 units to win 0.88 units.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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