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Brenton Kemp's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 4/6/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, and other baseball bets.
It's Thursday and we have plenty of matinee baseball on tap with a couple of games going down in the evening. Unfortunately, my picks got off to a rough start on Opening Day as I went 0-2 and dropped a pair of units on the day. It's early with many peaks and valleys ahead so let's get things turned around in a hurry!
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Feel free to give me a follow on Twitter @BKemp17 with any questions or comments or plain ol' baseball talk! Now, let's dive into Thursday's free MLB picks and see if we can pad those bankrolls!
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: TOR (-215)
TOR: Kevin Gausman | KC: Jordan Lyles
The Blue Jays took care of business with a 3-0 win over Zack Greinke and the Royals last night while Alek Manoah bounced back from a tough Opening Day start with seven shutout innings.
Things don't get any easier for the Royals hitters this afternoon as another Cy Young contender in Kevin Gausman toes the rubber for the Blue Jays. Gausman allowed three runs (zero earned) on eight hits and a walk with seven strikeouts across six innings on Saturday against the St. Louis Cardinals while also working to a 1.57 FIP in the outing. The right-hander turned in a 3.35 ERA/2.38 FIP with a dominant 24.4% K-BB% in his first season with the Blue Jays in 2022.
The Jays take on Royals right-hander Jordan Lyles who's coming off one of his better big-league seasons in 2022. Lyles worked to a 4.42 ERA/4.40 FIP from last season but was once again stung by the long ball with a 1.31 HR/9. He doesn't punch many out with a career 17.5% K% in a 332-appearance sample size. He got his season started on the right note with 5.1 innings of two-run ball (one earned) with two walks against two strikeouts against the Twins but took the loss nonetheless.
Vlad Guerrero Jr. with his first HR of the year 🤩pic.twitter.com/knrdy0NkYV
— The Game Day MLB (@TheGameDayMLB) April 6, 2023
The Blue Jays bats should have some fun here today. It will be a chilly afternoon in Kansas City but a loaded Blue Jays lineup should be able to take care of Lyles. His lack of strikeout stuff and gaudy home run rates don't figure to work in his favor against this stacked Blue Jays lineup.
Along with what should be a solid start from Gausman this is a game the Blue Jays should be able to win by at least two runs as they embark on what they hope will be a World Series season.
Pick: Blue Jays run line (-128), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies
O/U: 10.5 | Moneyline: COL (-152)
WSH: Josiah Gray | COL: Kyle Freeland
The Colorado Rockies begin the home portion of their 2023 schedule after beginning the season with a 2-4 road trip. They take on a Washington Nationals squad that has played all six of their games this season on their home turf as they hit the road for the first time this season.
The Nats send right-hander Josiah Gray to the rubber for his second start of the season after he was touched up in his first outing of the season against the Atlanta Braves. Gray yielded five earned runs in five innings of work with two walks against four strikeouts while ending up on the losing end of the decision. The 25-year-old posted a 5.02 ERA/5.86 FIP across 28 starts with Washington a season ago.
Gray's counterpart tonight will be left-hander Kyle Freeland who enjoyed a brilliant start to his season last Friday against a quality Padres lineup on the road. Freeland tossed six innings of shutout ball with one walk and one strikeout on the day, earning the win in the process.
Freeland turned in a 4.53 ERA last season but struggled mightily at Coors Field where he posted a 6.00 ERA versus a 3.08 mark on the road. Predictably, his ERA at home is far worse than on the road in his career as he owns a 4.77 ERA at Coors Field versus a solid 3.72 mark anywhere else. That trend certainly continued on Opening Day.
To be honest, this matchup doesn't appear favorable for either pitcher. Freeland has struggled at home while Gray owns a 5.26 ERA through his first 224 1/3 innings at the big-league level. He's been much better on the road where he owns a 4.15 ERA versus a 6.28 mark at Nationals Park but this is no ordinary road ballpark.
I'm feeling a high-scoring affair tonight in Colorado so let's hit the over 10.5 from Coors Field.
Pick: Over 10.5 (-122), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck folks!
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